An update on the GLA 2024-based demographic projections May 31st, 2026 by Ben Corr This is a brief update on the timing of the upcoming release, what it will include, and some of the changes being introduced with the new projections. When will the projections be released? The projections will be published alongside the Draft London Plan and the London Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (our release is tied…
Is London’s cost of living pulling away from the UK average? May 28th, 2026 by Sixia Zhang Londoners have long suspected that life in the capital costs more, but the gap depends very much on what is being bought. As explored below, two pints of milk cost about the same in London as the UK average. A pint in the pub, by contrast, costs around a quarter more. Childcare costs more still.…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2026 May 28th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem, and Sixia Zhang UK inflation drops in April The latest data on Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that it slowed to 2.8% in the 12 months to April 2026, down from 3.3% in March (Figure 1). The slowdown in CPI inflation was below that expected by surveyed analysts who had expected it…
Green jobs and skills in London May 20th, 2026 by Monet Durieux Nearly half of all Londoners (46%) would be interested in training in order to take up a ‘green’ job, according to a recent Office for National Statistics (ONS) survey. The same survey showed that around 12% of working adults in London described any part of their main job as ‘green’, with around one-in-three of those…
Rising unemployment and widening inequalities May 19th, 2026 by Pauline Bucher Key Points: Background London’s unemployment rate has been rising for over two years. The headline, seasonally adjusted, Labour Force Survey rate was 7.4% in the three months to March 2026 (or 6.6% on a four-quarter moving average basis). Since early 2024, the rate has consistently remained above its pre-pandemic benchmark of just under 5%, indicating…
London’s workforce exposure to generative artificial intelligence April 30th, 2026 by Jeff Dwan-O Reilly Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) is evolving quickly, with the potential to reshape London’s labour market. But its overall impact on employment remains uncertain. This supplement summaries the findings of recent GLA Economics research into the topic. Introduction How will artificial intelligence change London’s labour market? In a new GLA Economics Working Paper, ‘London’s workforce exposure…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2026 April 30th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang The economic fallout from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues Since the opening of hostilities between the US and Israel and Iran on 28 February the economic effects of this conflict have become more evident. Despite the announcement of a ceasefire on 7 April the Strait of Hormuz has remained severely restricted to…
The 2026 Spring Statement: Overview and Potential Implications for London March 26th, 2026 by Adam Yousef On 3rd March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, presented an update on the UK’s economic performance amidst growing national and international uncertainty. Concurrently, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published an update of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook[1]. This supplement summarises the key announcements made and potential implications for London’s economy. Growth,…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2026 March 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang Conflict in the Middle East triggers global commodities shock amid fears for the cost of living The US and Israel began attacks on Iran on 28 February. Iran has responded by attacking several countries around the Persian Gulf and elsewhere and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping. The Strait usually has around…
Unemployment in key charts: Young Londoners hit hardest by labour market slowdown March 19th, 2026 by Pauline Bucher Background London’s unemployment rate rose to 7.5% in the last quarter of 2025 (non-seasonally adjusted). While London has historically seen higher unemployment than other parts of the United Kingdom, the gap was larger than usual (2.1 percentage points then in Q4 2025 compared to 0.5 percentage points in Q4 2019). That is despite the UK unemployment rate at the same time…
The Green Book 2026: updates following the 2025 review February 26th, 2026 by Simon Webster Public investment decisions across the United Kingdom are underpinned by HM Treasury’s Green Book, the government’s guidance on appraisal. In January 2025 the Chancellor announced a review of the Green Book and how it is being applied in practice. The review culminated in the publication of Green Book Review 2025: Findings and actions[1] and was…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2026 February 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows sluggishly at the end of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow at the end of 2025. Output increased by 0.1% in Q4 2025 after also growing by 0.1% in Q3 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
The Co-operative and Mutual Economy in London February 11th, 2026 by Shaun Lowthian In 2025, the Greater London Authority commissioned Co-operatives UK and the Employee Ownership Association to produce a report on the size and scale of the co-operative and mutual economy in London, to add city-level insight to existing national-level reporting. This analysis looks at the current landscape of co-operative and mutual businesses in Greater London (“London”…
Preview of London employment projections (2024-based update) January 29th, 2026 by Yiqiao Chen GLA Economics has regularly updated trend-based long-term employment projections to inform policy making and city planning in London since 2002. A forthcoming publication will support the evidence base for the next London Plan, updating results to take into account changes in the outlook since the last London Plan evidence was published in 2017 and an…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2026 January 29th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation picks up in December The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation this month. This showed that CPI inflation rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2025; up from 3.2% in November (Figure 1). This was higher than expected by most surveyed economists who…
The 2025 Budget: Overview and potential implications December 18th, 2025 by Adam Yousef On 26 November 2025, Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the 2025 Budget within a context characterised by fiscal pressures and growing international uncertainty. This supplement presents some of the Budget’s key announcements and potential implications for London and Londoners. Macroeconomic outlook The Budget echoed existing concerns about the UK’s challenging fiscal environment, as did the Office…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2025 December 18th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP shrinks in October Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy contracted in October. Output fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 after growing by 0.1% in the three months to September (Figure 1). This was the first fall in three-monthly GDP…
The Inclusive Talent Strategy November 27th, 2025 by Kathryn Petrie, Principal Economist, Insights team, Skills and Employment Unit, GLA Last month the GLA and London Councils launched the Inclusive Talent Strategy (ITS). The ITS is a vital step in delivering the London Growth Plan. It aims to ensure that all Londoners can benefit from growth by building a skilled workforce and helping more people access high-quality jobs, while making it easier for employers to…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2025 November 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang Chancellor announces significant revenue raising measures in the Budget The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget introduces £26 billion in tax rises by 2029-30, to fund £11 billion in spending increases and cut borrowing from 4.5% to 1.9% of GDP over the forecast period. Spending commitments include removing the two-child benefit limit (costing £3 billion and lifting 450,000…
Indices of Deprivation 2025: an exploratory analysis November 10th, 2025 by Matthew Tibbles Introduction The Indices of Deprivation 2025 (IoD25) provides a suite of measures on relative levels of deprivation across 33,755 neighbourhoods, called Lower-Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs), in England.[1] This latest release updates and replaces the Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD19). This note provides a short summary of the main findings and trends in the data,…
The impact of motherhood on employment and earnings in London October 30th, 2025 by Pauline Bucher Gender inequalities in the UK and London labour markets are large. Recent data show that women living in London are around 10 percentage points less likely to be in work than men; and earn on average 19% less per hour than men.[1] Economists highlight the role of children in gender inequality, with international studies finding…
London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2025 October 30th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK inflation remains steady in September The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation this month. This showed that CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% in the 12 months to September 2025; it has remained at this level since July (Figure 1). This was lower than anticipated by…
Improving the availability of fertility rate data October 21st, 2025 by IzabelBahia Summary Earlier this month, the London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills Committee met to discuss the falling birth rates in London. The open investigation comes after the publication of several newspaper articles and research papers in the past few months highlighting the effects of falling birth rates in London and its effects on the number…
A snapshot of tourist accommodation in London September 25th, 2025 by Jubair Ahmed London is the world’s third-most visited city, attracting roughly 21 million international visits in 2024 (more than half of all international visits into the UK), generating £17 billion in spending. Given the scale of these numbers, it is important for policymakers to understand if the supply of visitor accommodation that houses tourists (hotels, bnbs, Airbnb…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2025 September 25th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK sees no growth in July Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy didn’t grow in July (Figure 1). This followed growth of 0.4% in June although this lack of growth was what had been expected by surveyed economists. Figure 1: Contributions to monthly UK GDP…
Potential approaches to addressing London’s (and the UK’s) investment, productivity and growth challenges August 28th, 2025 by Adam Yousef, Senior Manager While it is widely acknowledged that the UK’s poor investment record is undermining both productivity and sustainable growth, it is important that any investment is targeted at specific sectors and activities as opposed to being broadly scattered. In a rapidly-evolving economic context that includes the emergence of ‘new economy’ sectors and decarbonisation, such a judicious…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2025 August 28th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth beats expectations in second quarter Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow in the second quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.3% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.7% in Q1 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth was higher…
GLA 2024-based population projections – research outputs August 6th, 2025 by Ben Corr Summary The GLA’s 2024-based demographic projections will be a key part of the evidence base for the next London Plan. Final projections are expected to be published at the beginning of 2026, but the GLA has published an initial set of trend-based population projections – labelled ‘research outputs’ – to give users an early indication…
ONS 2022-based Subnational Projections August 1st, 2025 by Ben Corr Summary On 24 June, ONS published their 2022-based subnational population projections (SNPP). Whilst acknowledging that projecting future population is inherently difficult, we think there are problems with these projections and can’t generally recommend their use in London. In particular, they project future populations at local authority level that are out of line with past trends…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2025 July 31st, 2025 by Daryl Rozario Jubair Ahmed Gordon Douglass Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK’s GDP contracts for a second month in a row in May The latest monthly UK GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed an unexpected contraction of 0.1% in May 2025 (Figure 1). This was the second monthly decline in a row following a 0.3% drop in April and was counter to…
The State of London Report 2025 July 31st, 2025 by Simon Webster In June 2025, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the sixth edition of its State of London report, a wide-ranging statistical publication presenting a comprehensive overview of London’s current economic and social conditions. Drawing from over 100 datasets across 11 policy domains, the report tracks key indicators that underpin the work of the Mayor, the…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2025 update) June 26th, 2025 by Ali Ögcem GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 19th June. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2027). Further, we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2025 June 26th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang Chancellor announces additional capital allocation but with tight departmental spending increases in the Spending Review The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered the Spending Review 2025 on 11 June. In it she continued the government’s approach to public investment, allocating an additional £115 billion in capital investment over the period to 2029-30. Most importantly…
The Sectoral Composition of UK Investment: Divergences Abound! May 29th, 2025 by Adam Yousef It is commonly acknowledged that the UK in general, including London, has experienced low rates of investment especially since the 2008 Financial Crisis. This idea, however, masks divergences in the sectoral composition of UK investment over the past 25 years, which in some cases contributed to that relative slowdown. In a previous supplement to London’s…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2025 May 29th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK sees strong GDP growth at the start of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.7% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.1% in Q4 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
Second job holders in London April 24th, 2025 by Yiqiao Chen More than 200,000 Londoners had more than one job in 2024 – about 4% of those in employment. Multiple job holding has become more common over the past decade, growing from 147,000 (3.6% of London’s workforce) in 2014 to 201,000 (4.3%) in 2024. Cost-of-living pressures, greater working flexibility, and the expansion of the gig economy…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2025 April 24th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP grew strongly in February The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has this month published data for UK GDP growth in February. This data showed that UK output grew quite strongly in February, with GDP rising by 0.5% compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This compares to zero growth in January, which was…
Local data sharing: what has worked well, and what challenges do we still see in London? April 4th, 2025 by Martine Wauben, Head of Data for London, GLA Blog 4 for the 15-year anniversary of the London Datastore: Celebrating London’s Data Story London is a wonderful, but complex ecosystem. Almost no city challenge can be solved by any one organisation on their own. That’s why the Greater London Authority emphasises partnership working and collaboration in all we do. Where the solution to a…
Investment in London: The Devil in the Detail March 27th, 2025 by Adam Yousef, Senior Manager London is commonly perceived as an ‘investment magnet’ not just by the UK but also by global standards. While this is true to a certain extent, it masks the devil in the detail, which is that this idea does not always hold. In this supplement, we look specifically at London’s investment performance – how it…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2025 March 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang Chancellor delivers Spring Statement On 26 March the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered the 2025 Spring Statement which had a heavy focus on improving government efficiency and increasing spending on defence. The Chancellor thus announced the creation of a £3.25bn Transformation Fund “to support the fundamental reform of public services, seize the opportunities…
Data as a driver for innovation March 21st, 2025 by Macarena Plaza Helguero and Hong Chen, GLA Blog 3: Celebrating London’s data story The evolution of the Infrastructure Mapping Application (IMA) Toolbox and its role in the planning and delivery of infrastructure across London London’s infrastructure landscape is as complex as the city itself. With nearly nine million residents spread across 33 boroughs, our capital relies on a highly complex network of…
London Building Stock Model 2 March 19th, 2025 by Paul Hodgson, City Data, GLA Blog 2: Celebrating London’s data story Introduction Nearly two-thirds of London’s CO2 emissions come from buildings, with domestic buildings being a major contributor at 32%. Delivering retrofit to domestic buildings at scale and targeted to the most-effective types of building is therefore a key route to net zero. A joint study with London Councils identified…
15 years of the London Datastore March 18th, 2025 by Luke Marshall-Waterfield, Interim Chief Digital Officer for London Blog 1: Celebrating London’s data story This year we’re celebrating the 15-year anniversary of the London Datastore with a series of blogs on what we’ve learned about open data and data sharing. Over the coming weeks we’ll be looking back at what we’ve learned, and how important a role data has played in telling the…
In-work poverty in London – An overview of trends and drivers, 1996-2023 March 17th, 2025 by Guillaume Paugam 1 Introduction In London, 2.2 million people were in relative poverty according to the latest data for 2020/21-2022/23 – meaning that 24% of the capital’s residents lived in households with less than 60% of UK median income.[1] This was higher than the UK-wide rate of 22%. At that time, many labour market indicators in London…
Long-term sickness and the London labour market February 27th, 2025 by Guillaume Paugam 1 Introduction The link between long-term sickness and labour market participation has become a prominent issue among UK policymakers since economic inactivity due to ill-health rose following the pandemic.[1] The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed that, in the 12 months to September 2024, 2.5m people were inactive because of long-term sickness in…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2025 February 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK sees slow growth at the end of 2024 The UK economy grew in the final quarter of 2024 according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in February 2025. This showed that real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Q4 2024, after not growing at all in Q3…
Green apprenticeships in London January 30th, 2025 by Ruth Moxon, Economist The Mayor has pledged to work with London’s employers to create high-quality jobs and apprenticeships.[1] He has also set a target for London to be net zero carbon by 2030, in which apprenticeships are seen as important pathways to develop the skills to achieve this.[2] This blog summarises some of our recent analysis around green…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2025 January 30th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation slows marginally in December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in December, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). CPI inflation rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024, down from 2.6% in the 12 months to November (Figure 1). Figure 1: This drop in inflation had…
Recent migration trends in the UK and London January 30th, 2025 by Veronica Tuffrey, Senior Analyst, City Intelligence Unit Last November the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released statistics about net migration into the UK (ONS, 28/11/24) that provoked much media interest (for example BBC). This blog is intended to provide context to these statistics with respect to London. The first four sections present UK data, the fifth examines the available data at London…
London macroeconomic scenarios (December 2024 update) December 19th, 2024 by Sixia Zhang GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 17th December. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2026). Further, we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2024 December 19th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP falls unexpectedly in October The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data for UK GDP growth in October. This data showed that UK output unexpectedly shrank in October with GDP dropping by 0.1% compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). Figure 1: Contributions to monthly UK GD) growth, October 2023 to October 2024…
Autumn Budget 2024: Highlights and Implications for London November 28th, 2024 by Adam Yousef The Government’s Autumn 2024 Budget included several major fiscal changes, including a revision of the method by which national debt is measured for national accounting purposes, an upcoming rise in national insurance contributions for employers and commitments related to regional devolution. Some of these changes could significantly influence London’s economic trajectory. On October 30th 2024,…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2024 November 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang Bank of England cuts interest rates The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates again in November, with the Bank Base Rate being cut from 5.0% to 4.75% (Figure 1). This is the second cut in interest rates by the BoE this year. Figure 1: Alongside this decision the BoE published its November 2024 Monetary…
London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2024 October 31st, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK economy grows in September After seeing two months of zero growth in both June and July, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published this month, showed that the economy grew by 0.2% in August (Figure 1). Figure 1: The ONS estimates that all sectors of the UK economy grew in August. Output…
Payrolled employments by nationality September 26th, 2024 by Guillaume Paugam The share of payrolled employee jobs among London residents that are held by non-UK nationals has been increasing since the UK’s formal exit from the European Union and the start of the pandemic in early 2020. A big increase in jobs held by non-EU/non-UK citizens has been driving this change, even as the number held…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2024 September 26th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy doesn’t grow for a second month in a row The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data this month that showed that output in the UK economy did not grow in July compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This follows on from no growth in June either. Figure 1: Looking at the…
UK investment between 2000 & 2019: distinction with a difference August 30th, 2024 by Adam Yousef While it is true that the UK has been lagging many OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and most G7 countries in gross capital formation, the picture becomes more mixed and complex as one scrutinises national, international and regional data trends. This supplement will examine these issues from a UK context in more detail.…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2024 August 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK cuts interest rates for first time since 2020 The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this month. The Bank Base Rate was lowered from 5.25% to 5% on 1 August after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five members to four to reduce the rate by…
Why are apprenticeships less common in London? Evidence from the Employer Skills Survey August 15th, 2024 by Ruth Moxon Apprenticeships are qualifications where the learner is in a paid job that includes on-the-job and off-the-job training. The training costs for apprenticeships are primarily funded through the apprenticeship levy (75% of starts in London in 2021/22)[1], and the levy forms the apprenticeship budget for the Department for Education. Apprenticeships are an important part of the…
GLA 2022-based population projections August 13th, 2024 by Ben Corr I am pleased (and somewhat relieved) to announce that we have now published the GLA’s 2022-based population projections. Why are the projections so late this year? This publication had originally been planned for November 2023 but was pushed back as a result of successive delays to the release of the necessary input data (for more…
