London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2024 October 31st, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK economy grows in September After seeing two months of zero growth in both June and July, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published this month, showed that the economy grew by 0.2% in August (Figure 1). Figure 1: The ONS estimates that all sectors of the UK economy grew in August. Output…
Payrolled employments by nationality September 26th, 2024 by Guillaume Paugam The share of payrolled employee jobs among London residents that are held by non-UK nationals has been increasing since the UK’s formal exit from the European Union and the start of the pandemic in early 2020. A big increase in jobs held by non-EU/non-UK citizens has been driving this change, even as the number held…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2024 September 26th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy doesn’t grow for a second month in a row The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data this month that showed that output in the UK economy did not grow in July compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This follows on from no growth in June either. Figure 1: Looking at the…
UK investment between 2000 & 2019: distinction with a difference August 30th, 2024 by Adam Yousef While it is true that the UK has been lagging many OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and most G7 countries in gross capital formation, the picture becomes more mixed and complex as one scrutinises national, international and regional data trends. This supplement will examine these issues from a UK context in more detail.…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2024 August 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK cuts interest rates for first time since 2020 The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this month. The Bank Base Rate was lowered from 5.25% to 5% on 1 August after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five members to four to reduce the rate by…
Why are apprenticeships less common in London? Evidence from the Employer Skills Survey August 15th, 2024 by Ruth Moxon Apprenticeships are qualifications where the learner is in a paid job that includes on-the-job and off-the-job training. The training costs for apprenticeships are primarily funded through the apprenticeship levy (75% of starts in London in 2021/22)[1], and the levy forms the apprenticeship budget for the Department for Education. Apprenticeships are an important part of the…
GLA 2022-based population projections August 13th, 2024 by Ben Corr I am pleased (and somewhat relieved) to announce that we have now published the GLA’s 2022-based population projections. Why are the projections so late this year? This publication had originally been planned for November 2023 but was pushed back as a result of successive delays to the release of the necessary input data (for more…
Detailed employee jobs report – 2022 (summer 2024 update) July 31st, 2024 by Yiqiao Chen The total number of employee jobs in London rose steeply in 2022 as the capital recovered from the pandemic, adding 297,500 jobs (6%) in the year to reach 5,595,000. That was also well above the pandemic peak of 5,239,000 in 2019 (7%). This blog delves into the detailed data based on the ONS’ Business Register…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2024 July 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP continues to grow in May Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy grew robustly in May. Monthly real GDP increased by 0.4% in May 2024 after stagnating in April (Figure 1). Figure 1: Monthly UK GDP growth and its contributions, May 2023 to May…
The State of London’s Economy and Society July 25th, 2024 by Adam Yousef On the 17th of June, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the fifth edition of its State of London report[1], a publication that provides the most up-to-date statistics on London’s performance across a range of economic and social outcomes. The report brings together an array of datasets that are organised thematically. The aim is to…
London’s population of young children – current and future July 9th, 2024 by Veronica Tuffrey, Senior Analyst, City Intelligence Unit The GLA demography team just released a report that examines the demographic evidence around trends in the population of young children (age 0 to 10) in London. We wrote this report to examine the truth behind media reports of primary schools in Inner London needing to merge or close due to insufficient pupils. Also, some articles have…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2024 June 27th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth was flat in April The UK economy did not grow in April according to new data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data showed that monthly GDP grew by 0% in April 2024 (Figure 1). This followed on from growth of 0.4% in March. Nevertheless, the ONS estimates that…
London at night: An updated evidence base for a 24 hour city May 31st, 2024 by Yiqiao Chen This blog summarises our recently published work on London’s night time economy. Purpose GLA Economics published an Evidence Base for a 24 Hour City in 2018 to support the Mayor of London, the Night Czar, the Night-Time Commission, and boroughs on night-time planning and strategies. The March 2024 update to the evidence base shows the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2024 May 31st, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows strongly in first quarter of 2024 After two quarters of mild negative growth of -0.3% in 2023 Q4 and -0.1% in 2023 Q3, the UK grew strongly by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, reports the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Year-on-year growth was a more modest 0.2%, and over the last two years…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2024 April 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP saw further growth in February This month saw the publication by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of monthly GDP numbers for the UK for February 2024 (Figure 1). This data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% month on month in February. This follows monthly growth of 0.3% in January (revised…
Evidence from the Employer Skills Survey 2022 April 19th, 2024 by Mariia Vorotchenko (GLA Economics) The Employer Skills Survey 2022 is the sixth edition of the survey conducted by the DfE since 2011. The survey aims to identify the skills challenges faced by employers, in their existing workforce as well as when recruiting. In particular, the survey covers three main areas: Recruitment and skill-shortage vacancies Skills gaps Training and workforce…
How can we measure the number of green jobs? April 11th, 2024 by Jeff OReilly Introduction Building upon a previous blog on the same topic, this short update examines the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest experimental estimates of green jobs, released in March 2024. The estimates of green jobs produced by the ONS complement previous analysis undertaken by GLA Economics to identify green skills and jobs by analysing online…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2024 March 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy experienced growth in January The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published monthly UK GDP data for January 2024 earlier this month. This data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.2% in January, which follows on from a monthly decline of 0.1% in December 2023 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Both the services sector…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2024 February 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Sixia Zhang UK enters recession at the end of 2023 Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in mid-February showed that the UK had entered a recession in the second half of 2023. After contracting by 0.1% in Q3 2023 GDP fell by a further 0.3% in Q4 2023 (Figure 1). A contraction of GDP…
Revenue centralisation and economic growth in London: a counterfactual analysis February 28th, 2024 by Adam Yousef Compared to other OECD countries, the UK remains one of the most fiscally centralised countries. Data from the OECD’s Revenue Statistics publications shows that in recent years no more than 6% of the UK’s total tax revenue has been raised locally, compared to just under 11% for the OECD on average. Studies of the impact…
Gender pay gap analysis February 14th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario Gender pay gap in London and the UK The headline gender pay gap[1] in London was 11.9% according to provisional 2023 data from the ONS.[2] Pay gaps across the UK have been steadily falling since 1997 but in London progress slowed in the early 2010s (see Figure 1) leaving the gap in London 4.2 percentage…
Changes to UK immigration policy: Impacts and implications for London January 25th, 2024 by Adam Yousef On December 4, 2023, Home Secretary James Cleverly announced a series of changes to the UK’s immigration policy (although the timing at which some of these changes come into effect was subsequently modified). These changes are intended to reduce net migration into the UK, which the most recent immigration statistics (according to the Office for…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2024 January 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation ticks up in December UK inflation surprisingly increased in December according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up to 4.0% in December 2023 from 3.9% in November (Figure 1). This was the first time the rate had increased since February 2023 and had…
The State of London v4 January 22nd, 2024 by Adam Yousef On 22 January 2024, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the fourth version of its bi-annual State of London report – a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of London’s key economic and social outcomes. The report covers numerous datasets that update at different intervals, but most of the data presented reflect the state of affairs in…
The impact of Brexit on London’s economy – 2023 report January 11th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario Since the June 2016 Referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, there have been many studies and assessments of that decision’s impact on the UK and its various economic sectors and regions, including London. Broadly speaking, the literature concurs that Brexit has been exerting pressures on the London and UK economies, to…