UK investment between 2000 & 2019: distinction with a difference August 30th, 2024 by Adam Yousef While it is true that the UK has been lagging many OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and most G7 countries in gross capital formation, the picture becomes more mixed and complex as one scrutinises national, international and regional data trends. This supplement will examine these issues from a UK context in more detail.…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2024 August 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK cuts interest rates for first time since 2020 The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this month. The Bank Base Rate was lowered from 5.25% to 5% on 1 August after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five members to four to reduce the rate by…
Why are apprenticeships less common in London? Evidence from the Employer Skills Survey August 15th, 2024 by Ruth Moxon Apprenticeships are qualifications where the learner is in a paid job that includes on-the-job and off-the-job training. The training costs for apprenticeships are primarily funded through the apprenticeship levy (75% of starts in London in 2021/22)[1], and the levy forms the apprenticeship budget for the Department for Education. Apprenticeships are an important part of the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2024 July 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP continues to grow in May Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy grew robustly in May. Monthly real GDP increased by 0.4% in May 2024 after stagnating in April (Figure 1). Figure 1: Monthly UK GDP growth and its contributions, May 2023 to May…
The State of London’s Economy and Society July 25th, 2024 by Adam Yousef On the 17th of June, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the fifth edition of its State of London report[1], a publication that provides the most up-to-date statistics on London’s performance across a range of economic and social outcomes. The report brings together an array of datasets that are organised thematically. The aim is to…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2024 June 27th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth was flat in April The UK economy did not grow in April according to new data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data showed that monthly GDP grew by 0% in April 2024 (Figure 1). This followed on from growth of 0.4% in March. Nevertheless, the ONS estimates that…
London at night: An updated evidence base for a 24 hour city May 31st, 2024 by Yiqiao Chen This blog summarises our recently published work on London’s night time economy. Purpose GLA Economics published an Evidence Base for a 24 Hour City in 2018 to support the Mayor of London, the Night Czar, the Night-Time Commission, and boroughs on night-time planning and strategies. The March 2024 update to the evidence base shows the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2024 May 31st, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows strongly in first quarter of 2024 After two quarters of mild negative growth of -0.3% in 2023 Q4 and -0.1% in 2023 Q3, the UK grew strongly by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, reports the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Year-on-year growth was a more modest 0.2%, and over the last two years…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2024 April 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP saw further growth in February This month saw the publication by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of monthly GDP numbers for the UK for February 2024 (Figure 1). This data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% month on month in February. This follows monthly growth of 0.3% in January (revised…
How can we measure the number of green jobs? April 11th, 2024 by Jeff OReilly Introduction Building upon a previous blog on the same topic, this short update examines the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest experimental estimates of green jobs, released in March 2024. The estimates of green jobs produced by the ONS complement previous analysis undertaken by GLA Economics to identify green skills and jobs by analysing online…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2024 March 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy experienced growth in January The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published monthly UK GDP data for January 2024 earlier this month. This data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.2% in January, which follows on from a monthly decline of 0.1% in December 2023 (Figure 1). Figure 1: Both the services sector…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2024 February 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Sixia Zhang UK enters recession at the end of 2023 Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in mid-February showed that the UK had entered a recession in the second half of 2023. After contracting by 0.1% in Q3 2023 GDP fell by a further 0.3% in Q4 2023 (Figure 1). A contraction of GDP…
Revenue centralisation and economic growth in London: a counterfactual analysis February 28th, 2024 by Adam Yousef Compared to other OECD countries, the UK remains one of the most fiscally centralised countries. Data from the OECD’s Revenue Statistics publications shows that in recent years no more than 6% of the UK’s total tax revenue has been raised locally, compared to just under 11% for the OECD on average. Studies of the impact…
Gender pay gap analysis February 14th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario Gender pay gap in London and the UK The headline gender pay gap[1] in London was 11.9% according to provisional 2023 data from the ONS.[2] Pay gaps across the UK have been steadily falling since 1997 but in London progress slowed in the early 2010s (see Figure 1) leaving the gap in London 4.2 percentage…
Changes to UK immigration policy: Impacts and implications for London January 25th, 2024 by Adam Yousef On December 4, 2023, Home Secretary James Cleverly announced a series of changes to the UK’s immigration policy (although the timing at which some of these changes come into effect was subsequently modified). These changes are intended to reduce net migration into the UK, which the most recent immigration statistics (according to the Office for…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2024 January 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation ticks up in December UK inflation surprisingly increased in December according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up to 4.0% in December 2023 from 3.9% in November (Figure 1). This was the first time the rate had increased since February 2023 and had…
The State of London v4 January 22nd, 2024 by Adam Yousef On 22 January 2024, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the fourth version of its bi-annual State of London report – a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of London’s key economic and social outcomes. The report covers numerous datasets that update at different intervals, but most of the data presented reflect the state of affairs in…
The impact of Brexit on London’s economy – 2023 report January 11th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario Since the June 2016 Referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union, there have been many studies and assessments of that decision’s impact on the UK and its various economic sectors and regions, including London. Broadly speaking, the literature concurs that Brexit has been exerting pressures on the London and UK economies, to…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2023 December 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope Inflation falls as the Bank holds steady on interest rates There was another sharp fall in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in November, falling by 0.2% on the month, and rising by 3.9% in the 12 months to November, down from 4.6% in October, and 6.7% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2023 November 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope The Chancellor delivers tax cuts, although the tax burden for households is still rising Higher than expected inflation has increased tax receipts and enabled the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to cut taxes in his Autumn Statement this month – the headline announcement was a 2 percentage point cut in National Insurance contributions (NICs) for employees from…
Autumn Statement 2023 – Overview and Economic Implications for London November 29th, 2023 by Adam Yousef On November 22nd, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt released the 2023 Autumn Statement. The Statement’s release comes amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the date of the next general election, as well as concerns about the UK’s fiscal position, the social and economic consequences of the cost-of-living crisis, and ongoing geopolitical flux. This Statement was meant to present a…
The Local Skills Improvement Plan for London: Helping Londoners get into better jobs by ensuring training matches employer demand October 26th, 2023 by Monet Durieux Introduction Skills are important for the economy, individuals and employers. For the economy, education and skills are key drivers of economic growth and productivity. For individuals, people with higher level qualifications are more likely to be in work, earn higher wages, and enjoy greater job security. And finally for employers, hiring difficulties and skills gaps…
London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2023 October 26th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, and Mike Hope UK inflation fails to fall in September Office for National Statistics (ONS) data that was published this month showed inflation didn’t fall in September. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remained at 6.7%, unchanged from August (Figure 1). Most economists had expected a small drop in September’s inflation figure. The ONS noted that the biggest downward…
How can we measure the number of green jobs? October 20th, 2023 by Monet Durieux Introduction This blog explores the recently released experimental estimates of green jobs produced for the first time by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in September 2023. Tracking the number of green jobs is important. The Mayor of London has set a target for London to achieve net zero carbon by 2030. This transition to…
The impact of ending tax-free shopping on the UK and London economies September 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Introduction It is widely known that the tourism sector contributes considerably to the UK and London economies. Few events illustrate the extent of this impact better than the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a series of restrictive lock-down measures that impacted severely on domestic and international tourism to London and the rest of the UK.…
London’s Economy Today – editorial September 2023 September 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope UK GDP falls in July Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% between June and July (Figure 1). Although a drop had been expected this was more than most economists had been predicting. Despite this monthly drop output was 0.2% higher in the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2023 August 31st, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy grew in the second quarter Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Output increased by 0.2% between April and June 2023 after increasing by 0.1% in the previous quarter. However, despite this subdued growth UK GDP remains 0.2%…
Housing Affordability and Public-Sector Recruitment in London August 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Recent studies and reports have shed some light into the links between London’s housing affordability crisis and the city’s productivity and economic growth. The argument goes that unaffordable housing is deterring London from attracting the highly-skilled human capital required for the city to retain its competitive economic advantage and global standing. Yet the affordability crisis’…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2023 July 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farqharson Inflation eases, but households still under pressure For the first time in almost two years, June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release offered some good news in that the actual figure was below what forecasters expected. The cost of living crisis is far from over though, and price increases are still extremely rapid, but the…
State of London report – June 2023 update July 4th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario On Monday the 26th of June, the City Intelligence Unit (CIU) published the third version of its bi-annual State of London report. This report represents arguably the most comprehensive and authoritative evidence base for the economic and social realities experienced by London as a whole and Londoners of different backgrounds across a broad set of…
London’s Economy Today editorial June 2023 June 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 8.7% in May unchanged from April (Figure 1). This rate was unexpected by most economists with a poll by Reuters showing that most expected a lower inflation…
The impact of rising interest rates and financial turbulence on London’s economy June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson Higher interest rates and quantitative tightening are reversing the post-2008 global policy regime, with broad-ranging consequences. Massive pandemic policy stimulus combined with stretched supply chains to spark cost pressures around the world, which became a crisis when energy prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central banks have responded to these inflationary pressures by sharply…
London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Executive Summary June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson GLA Economics’ 42nd London forecast[1] suggests that: London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2023 as the cost of living crisis slows down the post-pandemic economic rebound. Growth is expected to improve to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. London is forecast to see a 3.4% rise…
Updated London Finance Commission tables May 25th, 2023 by Mike Hope In its 2017 report[1], The London Finance Commission (LFC) concluded that a broader tax base for local government, with stronger fiscal controls at the local level, would support growth through the delivery of more integrated and efficient services and increased infrastructure investment. More devolved governance structures might support the development of the strategically important Central…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
Monitoring the employment impact of mayoral programmes and initiatives – report summary May 18th, 2023 by Abigail Lyons When the Mayor was re-elected in May 2021, he stated that “protecting, preserving and helping to create jobs will be my economic priority”. GLA Economics have therefore produced a report to monitor the employment impact of programmes and initiatives over the mayoral term. Estimates suggest that over the mayoral term (since 2016), the mayor has…
How is inflation affecting people in London? April 27th, 2023 by James Watson This article was recently published on the Economics Observatory website. London is a famously expensive city. But higher salaries, lower energy bills, and better public transport led some to believe that people living in the capital may be resilient to rising prices. By analysing the latest prices micro data, it is clear that Londoners face…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2023 April 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures The UK continues to face inflation above 10% according to the latest figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in March 2023 but still came in at 10.1% year on year. While energy prices remain the…
Post-pandemic international visitors to London March 30th, 2023 by Mike Hope Last Summer there was a significant recovery in international tourism after it nearly fell to nothing during the pandemic. This supplement reports on what is driving those trends, and how they differ from pre-pandemic trends. GLA Economics also publishes tourism forecasts for both domestic and international visitors. This analysis will feed into the development of…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Issue 247 – March 2023 March 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and James Watson Cost of living crisis not easing yet, despite Government measures Inflation rose unexpectedly in February, with signs that some price pressures may take longer to ease. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly hit 10.4% year-on-year last month, up from 10.1% in January. The three main reasons were prices for restaurants and cafes, food and clothing.…
Evening and Night Workers in London February 23rd, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankic Think of London at night and a vibrant city, buzzing with culture and variety, springs to mind. This means that, for many Londoners, evenings and nights are a time for work. We have refreshed our evidence on the capital’s Evening & Night (E&N) workers – first published in 2018[1] – to consider how changes since…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Feb 2023 February 23rd, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy appears to have avoided recession in 2022 First estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are that economic activity, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was flat in the final quarter of 2022. If this is confirmed by later estimates it would mean that the economy just avoided entering a technical recession of…
Quality of jobs for London workers January 26th, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, Economist The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently published an analysis of Job quality in the UK with a range of indicators showing different aspects of job quality at UK and subnational level.[1] London stood out in the data in a number of dimensions. Suggesting a good quality of jobs, workers living in London reported…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – Issue 245 – Jan 2023 January 26th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation turning a corner, but households still face pinch points ahead Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased for a second consecutive month in December, according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest release. But at 10.5% year on year, headline CPI price growth remains near the highest level in 40 years. The latest data…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – December 2022 December 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation eases, but cost of living still bites Londoners hard The outlook for the cost of living may finally be stabilising, with tentative signs of a peak in inflation. But even as price rises decelerate, incomes are unlikely to catch up, leaving real living standards lower and consigning the economy to recession. UK Consumer Price…
Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? An update November 24th, 2022 by Ruth Moxon While London’s unemployment rate has fallen to a record low in recent months, the number of economically inactive Londoners (those not seeking and/or unavailable for work) has risen. Previous GLA Economics analysis highlighted a particular increase in the number of older workers leaving the labour market since the coronavirus pandemic. There are now around 88,000…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – November 2022 November 24th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy likely heading into a recession This month saw the outlook for the economy come into clearer focus. The Government announced the future of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released official forecasts just as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published Q3 UK…
London labour market projections 2022 – Interim update October 27th, 2022 by Nick Jacob London’s economy has generated employment at an unprecedented rate over the past 30 years, adding nearly 2m jobs since 1991. But what can we expect over the next 30 years? To help answer this question, GLA Economics has published an interim update of its long-term employment projections. This supplement provides an overview of the report,…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – October 2022 October 27th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Reverberations of mini-Budget continue to echo through the economy Last month’s LET editorial discussed the tax cuts (worth £45 billion in 2026/27) announced in the mini-budget on 23 September 2022. The current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, has reversed £32 billion worth of these measures, including the planned reductions in corporation tax, and the…
The Survey of Londoners 2021-22 – understanding life after the initial stages of the pandemic September 30th, 2022 by Barry Fong The City Intelligence Unit has published the headline findings from the Survey of Londoners 2021-22, a major social survey designed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and associated restrictions on key social outcomes for Londoners, not available from other data sources. It follows up on a similar survey that we undertook in 2018-19. Over the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2022 September 29th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson Expansionary mini-Budget risks stimulating inflationary economic boom Last Friday 23 September, the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented his first fiscal statement. The policies were very expansionary with cuts to income tax and national insurance, stamp duty reductions, and cancelling of the proposed increases in corporation tax. Net permanent tax cuts as a share of GDP are…
London macroeconomic scenarios (August 2022 update) August 25th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 25 August[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2024) and we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2022 August 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jasmine Farquharson, and Mike Hope Inflation rises strongly again Annual UK Consumer Price Index inflation (CPI) rose to 10.1% in July, up 0.7 percentage points from the June rate of 9.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982, according to ONS modelling. Rising food and non-alcoholic drink prices made the…
The cost of living – August 2022 update August 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, James Watson, Nick Jacob and Yvette Smith The cost of living crisis increasingly dominates the outlook for London, threatening to widen existing inequalities, halt the recovery from the pandemic and push many into being unable to afford necessities. Our latest report builds on previous work at the start of this year to set out an evidence base on the impact of the…
The State of London Report and Dashboard July 28th, 2022 by Matthew Daley Regular readers of LET will know that this supplement normally takes a deep dive into a piece of research or analysis about London’s economy that we have been working on. This edition takes a slightly different form, bringing your attention to a new GLA publication called ‘The State of London’, a collaboration between analysts in…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2022 July 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Rising inflation continues to drive global economic conditions The cost-of-living crisis continues to sharpen, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% a month earlier. The largest contributions to the annual rate came from household energy, vehicle fuel and food…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2022 update) June 30th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 21 June. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross…
London’s Economy Today – June 2022 editorial June 30th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Interest rates rise as do fears of stagflation This month the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates to 1.25% from 1%, to counter inflationary pressures. This is its fifth increase from successive meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. While the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures provided evidence of a slowdown in the…
Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? May 27th, 2022 by Ruth Moxon, Economist As we emerge from the pandemic, economists are trying to understand how COVID-19 has changed the labour market. Over one million workers were still on furlough in the UK in the autumn of 2021, leading to concern that the end of the scheme would bring high unemployment. That hasn’t happened. As labour demand picked-up over…
London’s Economy Today – May 2022 editorial May 26th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Rising prices and higher taxes are squeezing household budgets Evidence is becoming firmer of the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on what is happening now, the differential impacts across households, and the possible impacts over the course of the year. There has been a 57% jump in the proportion of UK households cutting back…
