Evening and Night Workers in London

Think of London at night and a vibrant city, buzzing with culture and variety, springs to mind. This means that, for many Londoners, evenings and nights are a time for work. We have refreshed our evidence on the capital’s Evening & Night (E&N) workers – first published in 2018[1] – to consider how changes since…

London’s Economy Today editorial – Feb 2023

UK economy appears to have avoided recession in 2022 First estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are that economic activity, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was flat in the final quarter of 2022. If this is confirmed by later estimates it would mean that the economy just avoided entering a technical recession of…

London’s Economy Today – editorial – December 2022

Inflation eases, but cost of living still bites Londoners hard The outlook for the cost of living may finally be stabilising, with tentative signs of a peak in inflation. But even as price rises decelerate, incomes are unlikely to catch up, leaving real living standards lower and consigning the economy to recession. UK Consumer Price…

Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? An update

While London’s unemployment rate has fallen to a record low in recent months, the number of economically inactive Londoners (those not seeking and/or unavailable for work) has risen. Previous GLA Economics analysis highlighted a particular increase in the number of older workers leaving the labour market since the coronavirus pandemic. There are now around 88,000…

London’s Economy Today – editorial – November 2022

UK economy likely heading into a recession This month saw the outlook for the economy come into clearer focus. The Government announced the future of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released official forecasts just as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published Q3 UK…

The Survey of Londoners 2021-22 – understanding life after the initial stages of the pandemic

The City Intelligence Unit has published the headline findings from the Survey of Londoners 2021-22, a major social survey designed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and associated restrictions on key social outcomes for Londoners, not available from other data sources. It follows up on a similar survey that we undertook in 2018-19. Over the…

London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2022

Expansionary mini-Budget risks stimulating inflationary economic boom Last Friday 23 September, the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented his first fiscal statement. The policies were very expansionary with cuts to income tax and national insurance, stamp duty reductions, and cancelling of the proposed increases in corporation tax. Net permanent tax cuts as a share of GDP are…

The State of London Report and Dashboard

Regular readers of LET will know that this supplement normally takes a deep dive into a piece of research or analysis about London’s economy that we have been working on. This edition takes a slightly different form, bringing your attention to a new GLA publication called ‘The State of London’, a collaboration between analysts in…

London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2022

Rising inflation continues to drive global economic conditions The cost-of-living crisis continues to sharpen, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% a month earlier. The largest contributions to the annual rate came from household energy, vehicle fuel and food…

London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2022 update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 21 June. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross…

London’s Economy Today – June 2022 editorial

Interest rates rise as do fears of stagflation This month the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates to 1.25% from 1%, to counter inflationary pressures. This is its fifth increase from successive meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. While the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures provided evidence of a slowdown in the…

Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market?

As we emerge from the pandemic, economists are trying to understand how COVID-19 has changed the labour market. Over one million workers were still on furlough in the UK in the autumn of 2021, leading to concern that the end of the scheme would bring high unemployment. That hasn’t happened. As labour demand picked-up over…

London’s Economy Today – May 2022 editorial

Rising prices and higher taxes are squeezing household budgets Evidence is becoming firmer of the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on what is happening now, the differential impacts across households, and the possible impacts over the course of the year. There has been a 57% jump in the proportion of UK households cutting back…

Summary of Local Skills Report, Spring 2022

The GLA published an update of its Local Skills Report (LSR) this February, following the first iteration published in March 2021. The updated LSR was published alongside extensive Data Annexes, providing insight into the key aspects of the local labour market and skills landscape at a London and sub-regional level. This supplement summarises some of…

London’s Economy Today – April 2022 editorial

The cost of living continues to rise Increases in the cost of living intensified this month. The Ofgem price cap for standard energy bills increased by 50% and a higher rate of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) came into effect. Rising costs will have an impact on household budgets, particularly at the bottom of the income…

London’s Economy Today – March 2022 editorial

War in Ukraine stokes higher inflation Across the last month, the news has been dominated by the human tragedy of the war in Ukraine. As the UK joins other international allies in sanctioning Russian firms, banks and individuals, this crisis will also have a ripple effect on the global economy. Russia is the world’s second-largest…

COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (February 2022 update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London at the end of February. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are…

Identifying green occupations in London

In a new GLA Economics report, we use an O*NET-based[1] classification of green jobs to identify occupations that are likely to be affected by the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. This supplement summarises our approach and highlights some key findings. Challenges of defining green jobs Delivering a green economic recovery and reducing greenhouse gas…

London’s Economy Today – February 2022 editorial

Rising inflation places pressure on living costs Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reached 5.5% year-on-year in January (Figure 1), ticking up 0.1 percentage points from the December reading and setting a new 30-year high (since March 1992). The fastest monthly price growth came from alcohol…

London’s population changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

The GLA demography team just released a report that assesses recently available evidence to try to understand the combined effect of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s population. We examined this question in May last year, and found that the data collection used to monitor population change had itself been disrupted so our conclusions…

The rising cost of living and its effects on Londoners

Executive summary Key points for London: Inflation is running at a 30-year high of 5.4% year-on-year, driven by supply chain challenges and rising global fuel prices. Price growth in London is likely higher than the rest of the UK, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimating an underlying inflation gap of…

London’s Economy Today – January 2022 editorial

The omicron wave in London has begun to decline After peaking at over 26,000 towards the end of December the seven day average of people testing positive for COVID-19 has been declining in the capital, with it dropping to around 11,000 by mid-January. Although the infection rates in London and the rest of England remain…

The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL

A joint report by Transport for London and GLA Economics sets out how reductions in service levels and capital investment could affect Londoners’ welfare as a result of a shortfall in TfL’s funding. The analysis details transport user disbenefits, wider economic impacts, and the monetary cost of additional CO2 emissions that would occur should TfL…

GLA 2020-based population and household projections

On 30th September the GLA Demography Team published the 2020-based population and household projections[1]. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. This round of projections comprises both variant trend projections, based on the continuation of past trends in population change, and housing-led scenario projections which incorporate considerations…

London’s Economy Today – October 2021 editorial

Budget and Spending Review Yesterday, the Chancellor presented the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review, with both taxes and public spending set to rise firmly in the coming three years. While some of the most eye-catching policies had been previously announced (rising National Insurance Contributions) or revealed in the days before the speech (ending the…

COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (August update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London at the end of August[1]. This is the seventh update to be published externally, after the first set was completed for internal use in May 2020. This supplement focuses on the latest update, and the evolution of the scenarios over the pandemic. The scenarios…

London’s Economy Today – September 2021 editorial

UK furlough scheme ends today After gradually reducing the amount of government support under the scheme since July, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or furlough comes to an end on 30 September. At the end of July there remained 297,400 London employments on furlough despite the introduction of employer contributions to cover part of the…

London’s Economy Today – July 2021 editorial

The economy continues to pick up gradually although difficulties are becoming apparent Despite increasing COVID-19 infection rates the government lifted most of the remaining social and business restrictions on 19 July. The economy continues to grow following the series of easings of the January lockdown restrictions. According to the latest data from the Office for…

London’s economic activity 1998-2019

In May 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published[1] estimates of output to local authority level by sector and updated the historic time series from 1998. It updates previous summaries of ONS output releases[2]. This month, the ONS also published[3] an updated time series of estimates of sub-regional productivity to local authority level. The…

Macroeconomic scenarios for London’s recovery

We have published our latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London in London’s Economic Outlook. We’ve also updated our macroeconomic scenarios for London’s economy, on which they are based. The scenarios are part of work on the impact of the pandemic on London’s economy that we started after the beginning of the pandemic last year.…

Poverty in London 2019/20

Key Points Overall poverty levels in London, in the period prior to the pandemic in the UK (up to March 2020), fell marginally. Evidence from elsewhere suggests that poverty levels will have increased during the pandemic, but the official data currently available covers the three year period ending March 2020. Child poverty remained stable in…

GLA Economics forecasts slow growth for London in the coming year

GLA Economics has just published its latest economic forecasts for London. This uses our bespoke and newly updated forecasting model to estimate London’s economic output (as measured by gross value added or GVA), workforce jobs[1], household income and household spending up to 2021. At the headline level, we forecast: London’s economy is expected to have…

Indices of Deprivation 2019 Initial Analysis

The Indices of Deprivation 2019 (ID2019) are the Government’s primary measure of deprivation for small areas (known as LSOAs) in England. They replace and update the Indices of Deprivation 2015. The main index is the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which combines measures across seven distinct aspects of deprivation. It is important to note that…