The impact of ending tax-free shopping on the UK and London economies September 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Introduction It is widely known that the tourism sector contributes considerably to the UK and London economies. Few events illustrate the extent of this impact better than the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a series of restrictive lock-down measures that impacted severely on domestic and international tourism to London and the rest of the UK.…
London’s Economy Today – editorial September 2023 September 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope UK GDP falls in July Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% between June and July (Figure 1). Although a drop had been expected this was more than most economists had been predicting. Despite this monthly drop output was 0.2% higher in the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2023 August 31st, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy grew in the second quarter Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Output increased by 0.2% between April and June 2023 after increasing by 0.1% in the previous quarter. However, despite this subdued growth UK GDP remains 0.2%…
Housing Affordability and Public-Sector Recruitment in London August 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Recent studies and reports have shed some light into the links between London’s housing affordability crisis and the city’s productivity and economic growth. The argument goes that unaffordable housing is deterring London from attracting the highly-skilled human capital required for the city to retain its competitive economic advantage and global standing. Yet the affordability crisis’…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2023 July 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farqharson Inflation eases, but households still under pressure For the first time in almost two years, June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release offered some good news in that the actual figure was below what forecasters expected. The cost of living crisis is far from over though, and price increases are still extremely rapid, but the…
State of London report – June 2023 update July 4th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario On Monday the 26th of June, the City Intelligence Unit (CIU) published the third version of its bi-annual State of London report. This report represents arguably the most comprehensive and authoritative evidence base for the economic and social realities experienced by London as a whole and Londoners of different backgrounds across a broad set of…
London’s Economy Today editorial June 2023 June 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 8.7% in May unchanged from April (Figure 1). This rate was unexpected by most economists with a poll by Reuters showing that most expected a lower inflation…
The impact of rising interest rates and financial turbulence on London’s economy June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson Higher interest rates and quantitative tightening are reversing the post-2008 global policy regime, with broad-ranging consequences. Massive pandemic policy stimulus combined with stretched supply chains to spark cost pressures around the world, which became a crisis when energy prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central banks have responded to these inflationary pressures by sharply…
London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Executive Summary June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson GLA Economics’ 42nd London forecast[1] suggests that: London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2023 as the cost of living crisis slows down the post-pandemic economic rebound. Growth is expected to improve to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. London is forecast to see a 3.4% rise…
Updated London Finance Commission tables May 25th, 2023 by Mike Hope In its 2017 report[1], The London Finance Commission (LFC) concluded that a broader tax base for local government, with stronger fiscal controls at the local level, would support growth through the delivery of more integrated and efficient services and increased infrastructure investment. More devolved governance structures might support the development of the strategically important Central…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
Monitoring the employment impact of mayoral programmes and initiatives – report summary May 18th, 2023 by Abigail Lyons When the Mayor was re-elected in May 2021, he stated that “protecting, preserving and helping to create jobs will be my economic priority”. GLA Economics have therefore produced a report to monitor the employment impact of programmes and initiatives over the mayoral term. Estimates suggest that over the mayoral term (since 2016), the mayor has…
How is inflation affecting people in London? April 27th, 2023 by James Watson This article was recently published on the Economics Observatory website. London is a famously expensive city. But higher salaries, lower energy bills, and better public transport led some to believe that people living in the capital may be resilient to rising prices. By analysing the latest prices micro data, it is clear that Londoners face…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2023 April 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures The UK continues to face inflation above 10% according to the latest figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in March 2023 but still came in at 10.1% year on year. While energy prices remain the…
Post-pandemic international visitors to London March 30th, 2023 by Mike Hope Last Summer there was a significant recovery in international tourism after it nearly fell to nothing during the pandemic. This supplement reports on what is driving those trends, and how they differ from pre-pandemic trends. GLA Economics also publishes tourism forecasts for both domestic and international visitors. This analysis will feed into the development of…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Issue 247 – March 2023 March 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and James Watson Cost of living crisis not easing yet, despite Government measures Inflation rose unexpectedly in February, with signs that some price pressures may take longer to ease. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly hit 10.4% year-on-year last month, up from 10.1% in January. The three main reasons were prices for restaurants and cafes, food and clothing.…
Evening and Night Workers in London February 23rd, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankic Think of London at night and a vibrant city, buzzing with culture and variety, springs to mind. This means that, for many Londoners, evenings and nights are a time for work. We have refreshed our evidence on the capital’s Evening & Night (E&N) workers – first published in 2018[1] – to consider how changes since…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Feb 2023 February 23rd, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy appears to have avoided recession in 2022 First estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are that economic activity, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was flat in the final quarter of 2022. If this is confirmed by later estimates it would mean that the economy just avoided entering a technical recession of…
Quality of jobs for London workers January 26th, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, Economist The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently published an analysis of Job quality in the UK with a range of indicators showing different aspects of job quality at UK and subnational level.[1] London stood out in the data in a number of dimensions. Suggesting a good quality of jobs, workers living in London reported…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – Issue 245 – Jan 2023 January 26th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation turning a corner, but households still face pinch points ahead Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased for a second consecutive month in December, according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest release. But at 10.5% year on year, headline CPI price growth remains near the highest level in 40 years. The latest data…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – December 2022 December 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation eases, but cost of living still bites Londoners hard The outlook for the cost of living may finally be stabilising, with tentative signs of a peak in inflation. But even as price rises decelerate, incomes are unlikely to catch up, leaving real living standards lower and consigning the economy to recession. UK Consumer Price…
Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? An update November 24th, 2022 by Ruth Moxon While London’s unemployment rate has fallen to a record low in recent months, the number of economically inactive Londoners (those not seeking and/or unavailable for work) has risen. Previous GLA Economics analysis highlighted a particular increase in the number of older workers leaving the labour market since the coronavirus pandemic. There are now around 88,000…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – November 2022 November 24th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy likely heading into a recession This month saw the outlook for the economy come into clearer focus. The Government announced the future of the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) and the Bank of England and Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) released official forecasts just as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published Q3 UK…
London labour market projections 2022 – Interim update October 27th, 2022 by Nick Jacob London’s economy has generated employment at an unprecedented rate over the past 30 years, adding nearly 2m jobs since 1991. But what can we expect over the next 30 years? To help answer this question, GLA Economics has published an interim update of its long-term employment projections. This supplement provides an overview of the report,…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – October 2022 October 27th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Reverberations of mini-Budget continue to echo through the economy Last month’s LET editorial discussed the tax cuts (worth £45 billion in 2026/27) announced in the mini-budget on 23 September 2022. The current Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, has reversed £32 billion worth of these measures, including the planned reductions in corporation tax, and the…
The Survey of Londoners 2021-22 – understanding life after the initial stages of the pandemic September 30th, 2022 by Barry Fong The City Intelligence Unit has published the headline findings from the Survey of Londoners 2021-22, a major social survey designed to assess the impact of COVID-19 and associated restrictions on key social outcomes for Londoners, not available from other data sources. It follows up on a similar survey that we undertook in 2018-19. Over the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2022 September 29th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson Expansionary mini-Budget risks stimulating inflationary economic boom Last Friday 23 September, the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, presented his first fiscal statement. The policies were very expansionary with cuts to income tax and national insurance, stamp duty reductions, and cancelling of the proposed increases in corporation tax. Net permanent tax cuts as a share of GDP are…
London macroeconomic scenarios (August 2022 update) August 25th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 25 August[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2024) and we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2022 August 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jasmine Farquharson, and Mike Hope Inflation rises strongly again Annual UK Consumer Price Index inflation (CPI) rose to 10.1% in July, up 0.7 percentage points from the June rate of 9.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982, according to ONS modelling. Rising food and non-alcoholic drink prices made the…
The cost of living – August 2022 update August 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, James Watson, Nick Jacob and Yvette Smith The cost of living crisis increasingly dominates the outlook for London, threatening to widen existing inequalities, halt the recovery from the pandemic and push many into being unable to afford necessities. Our latest report builds on previous work at the start of this year to set out an evidence base on the impact of the…
The State of London Report and Dashboard July 28th, 2022 by Matthew Daley Regular readers of LET will know that this supplement normally takes a deep dive into a piece of research or analysis about London’s economy that we have been working on. This edition takes a slightly different form, bringing your attention to a new GLA publication called ‘The State of London’, a collaboration between analysts in…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2022 July 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Rising inflation continues to drive global economic conditions The cost-of-living crisis continues to sharpen, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% a month earlier. The largest contributions to the annual rate came from household energy, vehicle fuel and food…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2022 update) June 30th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 21 June. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross…
London’s Economy Today – June 2022 editorial June 30th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Interest rates rise as do fears of stagflation This month the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates to 1.25% from 1%, to counter inflationary pressures. This is its fifth increase from successive meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. While the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures provided evidence of a slowdown in the…
Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? May 27th, 2022 by Ruth Moxon, Economist As we emerge from the pandemic, economists are trying to understand how COVID-19 has changed the labour market. Over one million workers were still on furlough in the UK in the autumn of 2021, leading to concern that the end of the scheme would bring high unemployment. That hasn’t happened. As labour demand picked-up over…
London’s Economy Today – May 2022 editorial May 26th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Rising prices and higher taxes are squeezing household budgets Evidence is becoming firmer of the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on what is happening now, the differential impacts across households, and the possible impacts over the course of the year. There has been a 57% jump in the proportion of UK households cutting back…
Summary of Local Skills Report, Spring 2022 April 28th, 2022 by Ammar Ljubijankic The GLA published an update of its Local Skills Report (LSR) this February, following the first iteration published in March 2021. The updated LSR was published alongside extensive Data Annexes, providing insight into the key aspects of the local labour market and skills landscape at a London and sub-regional level. This supplement summarises some of…
London’s Economy Today – April 2022 editorial April 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson The cost of living continues to rise Increases in the cost of living intensified this month. The Ofgem price cap for standard energy bills increased by 50% and a higher rate of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) came into effect. Rising costs will have an impact on household budgets, particularly at the bottom of the income…
London’s Economy Today – March 2022 editorial March 31st, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson War in Ukraine stokes higher inflation Across the last month, the news has been dominated by the human tragedy of the war in Ukraine. As the UK joins other international allies in sanctioning Russian firms, banks and individuals, this crisis will also have a ripple effect on the global economy. Russia is the world’s second-largest…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (February 2022 update) March 31st, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London at the end of February. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are…
Identifying green occupations in London February 25th, 2022 by Christopher Rocks In a new GLA Economics report, we use an O*NET-based[1] classification of green jobs to identify occupations that are likely to be affected by the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. This supplement summarises our approach and highlights some key findings. Challenges of defining green jobs Delivering a green economic recovery and reducing greenhouse gas…
London’s Economy Today – February 2022 editorial February 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Rising inflation places pressure on living costs Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reached 5.5% year-on-year in January (Figure 1), ticking up 0.1 percentage points from the December reading and setting a new 30-year high (since March 1992). The fastest monthly price growth came from alcohol…
London’s population changes during the COVID-19 pandemic February 16th, 2022 by Veronica Tuffrey, Senior Analyst, City Intelligence Unit The GLA demography team just released a report that assesses recently available evidence to try to understand the combined effect of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s population. We examined this question in May last year, and found that the data collection used to monitor population change had itself been disrupted so our conclusions…
The rising cost of living and its effects on Londoners February 1st, 2022 by James Watson, Rachel Leeser, Yvette Smith, Christopher Rocks, Barry Fong, Myles Wilson Executive summary Key points for London: Inflation is running at a 30-year high of 5.4% year-on-year, driven by supply chain challenges and rising global fuel prices. Price growth in London is likely higher than the rest of the UK, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimating an underlying inflation gap of…
London’s Economy Today – January 2022 editorial January 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson The omicron wave in London has begun to decline After peaking at over 26,000 towards the end of December the seven day average of people testing positive for COVID-19 has been declining in the capital, with it dropping to around 11,000 by mid-January. Although the infection rates in London and the rest of England remain…
The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL January 28th, 2022 by Daniele Catacchio and Matthew Daley A joint report by Transport for London and GLA Economics sets out how reductions in service levels and capital investment could affect Londoners’ welfare as a result of a shortfall in TfL’s funding. The analysis details transport user disbenefits, wider economic impacts, and the monetary cost of additional CO2 emissions that would occur should TfL…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (December update) December 16th, 2021 by James Watson GLA Economics has recently published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London in the 39th edition of London’s Economic Outlook. We have also updated our macroeconomic scenarios publication with more information on the scenarios and their drivers. These scenarios are part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and…
London’s Economy Today – December 2021 editorial December 16th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Omicron variant leads to the introduction of targeted measures In the run up to the Christmas holidays the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 was discovered in Southern Africa. Cases have quickly been reported in Europe, including the UK, and around the world, with examples of community transmission being reported. At the time of writing preliminary…
The furlough scheme in London November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Ammar Ljubijankić, and Christopher Rocks Introduction The government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) – or furlough scheme – closed at the end of September 2021, having run in some form since March 2020. This note reviews the latest official statistics and third-party analyses to consider how the scheme has affected Londoners. Use of furlough was relatively high in London, particularly…
London’s Economy Today – November 2021 editorial November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation picks up sharply in October, with higher rates still to come October saw annual CPI inflation accelerate sharply to 4.2% from 3.1% in September. This annual reading is a ten-year high, while the monthly price increase of 1.1 percentage points is perhaps even more striking as the fastest in nearly 30 years. While inflation…
GLA 2020-based population and household projections October 28th, 2021 by Wil Tonkiss On 30th September the GLA Demography Team published the 2020-based population and household projections[1]. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. This round of projections comprises both variant trend projections, based on the continuation of past trends in population change, and housing-led scenario projections which incorporate considerations…
London’s Economy Today – October 2021 editorial October 28th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Budget and Spending Review Yesterday, the Chancellor presented the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review, with both taxes and public spending set to rise firmly in the coming three years. While some of the most eye-catching policies had been previously announced (rising National Insurance Contributions) or revealed in the days before the speech (ending the…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (August update) September 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London at the end of August[1]. This is the seventh update to be published externally, after the first set was completed for internal use in May 2020. This supplement focuses on the latest update, and the evolution of the scenarios over the pandemic. The scenarios…
London’s Economy Today – September 2021 editorial September 30th, 2021 by Gordon Douglass, Supervisory Economist, James Watson, Economist, and Jasmine Farquharson, Higher Apprentice UK furlough scheme ends today After gradually reducing the amount of government support under the scheme since July, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or furlough comes to an end on 30 September. At the end of July there remained 297,400 London employments on furlough despite the introduction of employer contributions to cover part of the…
London’s Economy Today – August 2021 editorial August 26th, 2021 by Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson London’s economy recovers strongly although weaknesses remain This month the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its first estimate of London GDP growth for Q4 2020 and GLA Economics published its latest scenarios for the London economy. The ONS data show that the drop in London’s economic output in 2020 was less deep than for…
The GLA’s Adult Education Budget data publication August 26th, 2021 by Hector Espinoza The Adult Education Budget (AEB), devolved in August 2019 to the GLA, funds education and training for adults aged 19 and above. In this article, we present key aspects and findings of the latest AEB data release, covering the first two quarters of the academic year 2020/21. It should be noted that the Covid-19 pandemic…
London’s Economy Today – July 2021 editorial July 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope, Economist and Jasmine Farquharson, Higher Apprentice The economy continues to pick up gradually although difficulties are becoming apparent Despite increasing COVID-19 infection rates the government lifted most of the remaining social and business restrictions on 19 July. The economy continues to grow following the series of easings of the January lockdown restrictions. According to the latest data from the Office for…
London’s economic activity 1998-2019 July 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope In May 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published[1] estimates of output to local authority level by sector and updated the historic time series from 1998. It updates previous summaries of ONS output releases[2]. This month, the ONS also published[3] an updated time series of estimates of sub-regional productivity to local authority level. The…
Macroeconomic scenarios for London’s recovery May 25th, 2021 by Gordon Douglass We have published our latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London in London’s Economic Outlook. We’ve also updated our macroeconomic scenarios for London’s economy, on which they are based. The scenarios are part of work on the impact of the pandemic on London’s economy that we started after the beginning of the pandemic last year.…
Poverty in London 2019/20 March 28th, 2021 by Rachel Leeser Key Points Overall poverty levels in London, in the period prior to the pandemic in the UK (up to March 2020), fell marginally. Evidence from elsewhere suggests that poverty levels will have increased during the pandemic, but the official data currently available covers the three year period ending March 2020. Child poverty remained stable in…
