London macroeconomic scenarios (August 2022 update) August 25th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 25 August[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2024) and we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2022 August 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jasmine Farquharson, and Mike Hope Inflation rises strongly again Annual UK Consumer Price Index inflation (CPI) rose to 10.1% in July, up 0.7 percentage points from the June rate of 9.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982, according to ONS modelling. Rising food and non-alcoholic drink prices made the…
The cost of living – August 2022 update August 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, James Watson, Nick Jacob and Yvette Smith The cost of living crisis increasingly dominates the outlook for London, threatening to widen existing inequalities, halt the recovery from the pandemic and push many into being unable to afford necessities. Our latest report builds on previous work at the start of this year to set out an evidence base on the impact of the…
The State of London Report and Dashboard July 28th, 2022 by Matthew Daley Regular readers of LET will know that this supplement normally takes a deep dive into a piece of research or analysis about London’s economy that we have been working on. This edition takes a slightly different form, bringing your attention to a new GLA publication called ‘The State of London’, a collaboration between analysts in…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2022 July 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Rising inflation continues to drive global economic conditions The cost-of-living crisis continues to sharpen, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% a month earlier. The largest contributions to the annual rate came from household energy, vehicle fuel and food…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2022 update) June 30th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 21 June. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross…
London’s Economy Today – June 2022 editorial June 30th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Interest rates rise as do fears of stagflation This month the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates to 1.25% from 1%, to counter inflationary pressures. This is its fifth increase from successive meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. While the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures provided evidence of a slowdown in the…
Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market? May 27th, 2022 by Ruth Moxon, Economist As we emerge from the pandemic, economists are trying to understand how COVID-19 has changed the labour market. Over one million workers were still on furlough in the UK in the autumn of 2021, leading to concern that the end of the scheme would bring high unemployment. That hasn’t happened. As labour demand picked-up over…
London’s Economy Today – May 2022 editorial May 26th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Rising prices and higher taxes are squeezing household budgets Evidence is becoming firmer of the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on what is happening now, the differential impacts across households, and the possible impacts over the course of the year. There has been a 57% jump in the proportion of UK households cutting back…
Summary of Local Skills Report, Spring 2022 April 28th, 2022 by Ammar Ljubijankic The GLA published an update of its Local Skills Report (LSR) this February, following the first iteration published in March 2021. The updated LSR was published alongside extensive Data Annexes, providing insight into the key aspects of the local labour market and skills landscape at a London and sub-regional level. This supplement summarises some of…
London’s Economy Today – April 2022 editorial April 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson The cost of living continues to rise Increases in the cost of living intensified this month. The Ofgem price cap for standard energy bills increased by 50% and a higher rate of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) came into effect. Rising costs will have an impact on household budgets, particularly at the bottom of the income…
London’s Economy Today – March 2022 editorial March 31st, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson War in Ukraine stokes higher inflation Across the last month, the news has been dominated by the human tragedy of the war in Ukraine. As the UK joins other international allies in sanctioning Russian firms, banks and individuals, this crisis will also have a ripple effect on the global economy. Russia is the world’s second-largest…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (February 2022 update) March 31st, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London at the end of February. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are…
Identifying green occupations in London February 25th, 2022 by Christopher Rocks In a new GLA Economics report, we use an O*NET-based[1] classification of green jobs to identify occupations that are likely to be affected by the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. This supplement summarises our approach and highlights some key findings. Challenges of defining green jobs Delivering a green economic recovery and reducing greenhouse gas…
London’s Economy Today – February 2022 editorial February 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Rising inflation places pressure on living costs Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reached 5.5% year-on-year in January (Figure 1), ticking up 0.1 percentage points from the December reading and setting a new 30-year high (since March 1992). The fastest monthly price growth came from alcohol…
London’s population changes during the COVID-19 pandemic February 16th, 2022 by Veronica Tuffrey, Senior Analyst, City Intelligence Unit The GLA demography team just released a report that assesses recently available evidence to try to understand the combined effect of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s population. We examined this question in May last year, and found that the data collection used to monitor population change had itself been disrupted so our conclusions…
The rising cost of living and its effects on Londoners February 1st, 2022 by James Watson, Rachel Leeser, Yvette Smith, Christopher Rocks, Barry Fong, Myles Wilson Executive summary Key points for London: Inflation is running at a 30-year high of 5.4% year-on-year, driven by supply chain challenges and rising global fuel prices. Price growth in London is likely higher than the rest of the UK, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimating an underlying inflation gap of…
London’s Economy Today – January 2022 editorial January 28th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson The omicron wave in London has begun to decline After peaking at over 26,000 towards the end of December the seven day average of people testing positive for COVID-19 has been declining in the capital, with it dropping to around 11,000 by mid-January. Although the infection rates in London and the rest of England remain…
The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL January 28th, 2022 by Daniele Catacchio and Matthew Daley A joint report by Transport for London and GLA Economics sets out how reductions in service levels and capital investment could affect Londoners’ welfare as a result of a shortfall in TfL’s funding. The analysis details transport user disbenefits, wider economic impacts, and the monetary cost of additional CO2 emissions that would occur should TfL…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (December update) December 16th, 2021 by James Watson GLA Economics has recently published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London in the 39th edition of London’s Economic Outlook. We have also updated our macroeconomic scenarios publication with more information on the scenarios and their drivers. These scenarios are part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and…
London’s Economy Today – December 2021 editorial December 16th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Omicron variant leads to the introduction of targeted measures In the run up to the Christmas holidays the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 was discovered in Southern Africa. Cases have quickly been reported in Europe, including the UK, and around the world, with examples of community transmission being reported. At the time of writing preliminary…
The furlough scheme in London November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Ammar Ljubijankić, and Christopher Rocks Introduction The government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) – or furlough scheme – closed at the end of September 2021, having run in some form since March 2020. This note reviews the latest official statistics and third-party analyses to consider how the scheme has affected Londoners. Use of furlough was relatively high in London, particularly…
London’s Economy Today – November 2021 editorial November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation picks up sharply in October, with higher rates still to come October saw annual CPI inflation accelerate sharply to 4.2% from 3.1% in September. This annual reading is a ten-year high, while the monthly price increase of 1.1 percentage points is perhaps even more striking as the fastest in nearly 30 years. While inflation…
GLA 2020-based population and household projections October 28th, 2021 by Wil Tonkiss On 30th September the GLA Demography Team published the 2020-based population and household projections[1]. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. This round of projections comprises both variant trend projections, based on the continuation of past trends in population change, and housing-led scenario projections which incorporate considerations…
London’s Economy Today – October 2021 editorial October 28th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Budget and Spending Review Yesterday, the Chancellor presented the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review, with both taxes and public spending set to rise firmly in the coming three years. While some of the most eye-catching policies had been previously announced (rising National Insurance Contributions) or revealed in the days before the speech (ending the…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (August update) September 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London at the end of August[1]. This is the seventh update to be published externally, after the first set was completed for internal use in May 2020. This supplement focuses on the latest update, and the evolution of the scenarios over the pandemic. The scenarios…
London’s Economy Today – September 2021 editorial September 30th, 2021 by Gordon Douglass, Supervisory Economist, James Watson, Economist, and Jasmine Farquharson, Higher Apprentice UK furlough scheme ends today After gradually reducing the amount of government support under the scheme since July, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or furlough comes to an end on 30 September. At the end of July there remained 297,400 London employments on furlough despite the introduction of employer contributions to cover part of the…
London’s Economy Today – August 2021 editorial August 26th, 2021 by Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson London’s economy recovers strongly although weaknesses remain This month the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its first estimate of London GDP growth for Q4 2020 and GLA Economics published its latest scenarios for the London economy. The ONS data show that the drop in London’s economic output in 2020 was less deep than for…
The GLA’s Adult Education Budget data publication August 26th, 2021 by Hector Espinoza The Adult Education Budget (AEB), devolved in August 2019 to the GLA, funds education and training for adults aged 19 and above. In this article, we present key aspects and findings of the latest AEB data release, covering the first two quarters of the academic year 2020/21. It should be noted that the Covid-19 pandemic…
London’s Economy Today – July 2021 editorial July 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope, Economist and Jasmine Farquharson, Higher Apprentice The economy continues to pick up gradually although difficulties are becoming apparent Despite increasing COVID-19 infection rates the government lifted most of the remaining social and business restrictions on 19 July. The economy continues to grow following the series of easings of the January lockdown restrictions. According to the latest data from the Office for…
London’s economic activity 1998-2019 July 30th, 2021 by Mike Hope In May 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published[1] estimates of output to local authority level by sector and updated the historic time series from 1998. It updates previous summaries of ONS output releases[2]. This month, the ONS also published[3] an updated time series of estimates of sub-regional productivity to local authority level. The…
Macroeconomic scenarios for London’s recovery May 25th, 2021 by Gordon Douglass We have published our latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London in London’s Economic Outlook. We’ve also updated our macroeconomic scenarios for London’s economy, on which they are based. The scenarios are part of work on the impact of the pandemic on London’s economy that we started after the beginning of the pandemic last year.…
Poverty in London 2019/20 March 28th, 2021 by Rachel Leeser Key Points Overall poverty levels in London, in the period prior to the pandemic in the UK (up to March 2020), fell marginally. Evidence from elsewhere suggests that poverty levels will have increased during the pandemic, but the official data currently available covers the three year period ending March 2020. Child poverty remained stable in…
GLA Economics forecasts slow growth for London in the coming year December 19th, 2019 by Gordon Douglass GLA Economics has just published its latest economic forecasts for London. This uses our bespoke and newly updated forecasting model to estimate London’s economic output (as measured by gross value added or GVA), workforce jobs[1], household income and household spending up to 2021. At the headline level, we forecast: London’s economy is expected to have…
Indices of Deprivation 2019 Initial Analysis September 27th, 2019 by Rachel Leeser The Indices of Deprivation 2019 (ID2019) are the Government’s primary measure of deprivation for small areas (known as LSOAs) in England. They replace and update the Indices of Deprivation 2015. The main index is the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which combines measures across seven distinct aspects of deprivation. It is important to note that…
Regional, sub-regional and local Gross Value Added estimates for London, 1998-2017 February 7th, 2019 by Daryl Rozario In December 2018, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released provisional estimates of regional, sub-regional and local gross value added (GVA) for 2017[1] and updated historic data from 1998. This supplement presents the main London findings from this release. Using the balanced approach GVA(B), London’s total GVA was above £425 billion in 2017, up 3.0%…
London’s pubs audit 2018 July 18th, 2018 by Nye Cominetti In 2017 the GLA published a ‘pubs audit’, to look at what was happening to pubs in London. We recently updated this audit for 2018 – this blog outlines some of the findings. The 2017 audit showed that the number of pubs had fallen by a quarter since 2001. In response, the GLA has moved…
A Summary of the Skills Evidence Base 2018 July 12th, 2018 by Nye Cominetti GLA Economics recently published an Evidence Base[1] about skills in London, to support the Mayor’s new skills and adult education strategy[2]. This strategy sets out policies relating to further education and technical skills. The GLA will also soon consult on implementation plans for the newly-devolved Adult Education Budget (AEB), worth around £300m per year. See…
London’s Economic Outlook – Spring 2018 June 6th, 2018 by Gordon Douglass GLA Economics forecasts subdued economic growth for London GLA Economics has recently published its latest economic forecasts for London. This uses our bespoke forecasting model to estimate London’s economic output (as measured by gross value added or GVA), workforce jobs[1], household income and household spending up to 2020. At the headline level, we forecast: London’s…
GLA Economics forecasts subdued economic growth for London November 21st, 2017 by Mark Wingham GLA Economics has recently published its latest economic forecasts for London. This uses our bespoke forecasting model to estimate London’s economic output (as measured by gross value added or GVA), workforce jobs[1], household income and household spending up to 2019. At the headline level, we forecast: London’s economy is expected to grow by 2.1 per…
The impact of the roll-out of Universal Credit on the Claimant Count September 13th, 2017 by Daryl Rozario Summary The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed, based on administrative data from the benefits system. It provides a timely indication[1] of unemployment and allows for detailed analysis to be produced. Before 2013 it was measured using the number of people claiming…
London labour market projections 2017 August 31st, 2017 by Daryl Rozario In August GLA Economics published its latest employment projections for London. The projections use updated employment and GVA data to project the number of jobs in London broken down by sector and at the borough level. The central projection estimates that jobs in London will grow from 2016 at an annual average rate of 0.78…
The facts about transport spending in London August 9th, 2017 by Daryl Rozario By Mark Wingham. You often hear in the media that London receives a lot more in transport spending than any other region. And yes, more is spent in London in total than anywhere else in the UK – around £8.5 billion was spent by the public sector in 2015-16, more than a quarter of the…
London’s creative industries – 2017 update July 25th, 2017 by Daryl Rozario By Christopher Rocks, Economist. Since 1998 the Department for Culture Media and Sport (DCMS) has grouped together sub-sectors as wide ranging as visual arts, advertising and computer services to classify and measure the ‘creative industries’. These sub-groups are described as: ‘those industries which have their origin in individual creativity, skill and talent and which have…
Some economic uncertainty but London’s economy likely to continue to grow June 26th, 2017 by Daryl Rozario Gordon Douglass from GLA Economics goes through the latest economic forecast for London. Since our previous forecast was published in autumn 2016, economic events have calmed down to some extent although Article 50 has been triggered formally starting the ‘Brexit’ process. Despite the economic uncertainty this has caused it has so far had limited impact…
London’s relationship with Europe February 21st, 2017 by Daryl Rozario Gordon Douglass, Supervisory Economist, GLA Economics Since the 23 June referendum vote for ‘Brexit’ there’s been a high demand for data and statistics looking at London’s relationship with Europe and also how London sits in the UK as a whole. Fortunately lots of data sources are available to the GLA Intelligence Unit and we have…
London’s Economic Outlook: Autumn 2016 December 1st, 2016 by Daryl Rozario Despite some economic uncertainty the London and UK economies continue to grow Gordon Douglass from GLA Economics goes through the latest economic forecast for London… Since our previous forecast was published in the spring of 2016, economic events have moved on a pace with the UK voting in the June referendum to leave the EU.…
Comparing London with other global cities September 1st, 2016 by Daryl Rozario By Mark Wingham A common question we get asked at the GLA is how does London compare with other international cities. Many comparisons between London and other global cities to date have focused on particular topics or sectors, such as tourism and foreign direct investment. These comparisons have been outlined in Chapter 3 of the…
Local authority level gross value added estimates for London, 1997-2014 July 21st, 2016 by Daryl Rozario By Gordon Douglass, Supervisory Economist In December 2015, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released provisional estimates of regional, sub-regional and local gross value added (GVA) for 2014[1]. These data showed that in 2014, London’s total GVA was over £364 billion, up 6.8 per cent on 2013. London now accounts for 22.5 per cent[2] of…
Long-run employment projections for London 2016 July 11th, 2016 by Daryl Rozario In June, GLA Economics published its latest employment projections for London, and the supporting data on London Datastore. The projections use updated data to project the number of jobs in London broken down by sector and at the borough level. To support these judgements GLA Economics has developed a longer back series of employment and…
London’s Economic Outlook – Spring 2016 June 1st, 2016 by Daryl Rozario Despite a slowing global economy the economic forecast remains positive for London. Gordon Douglass from GLA Economics goes through the latest economic forecast. Since our previous forecasts were published in the autumn of 2015 economic conditions in London have slowed a touch but remain more upbeat than for the UK as a whole, despite continuing…
An economic perspective on house prices in London: analysing some big questions November 10th, 2015 by Daryl Rozario By Joel Marsden, Economist The market for home ownership, house prices and mortgage costs in London are all topics which excite much opinion, and have inspired many blog posts. The latest GLA Economics working paper attempts to cut through the myriad views to focus on the economic fundamentals – looking at how house prices are…
Work and life in the Central Activities Zone (CAZ), the northern part of the Isle of Dogs (NIOD) and their fringes August 13th, 2015 by Daryl Rozario The CAZ had over 125,000 local business units based within it in 2014, generating employment of over 1.8 million. The area produced output worth around £139 billion in 2012 and saw its population increase by 21 per cent between 2001 and 2011 compared to an increase for London as a whole of 14 per cent.…
London Business Survey 2014: Foreign Ownership July 23rd, 2015 by Daryl Rozario Capitalising on last year’s innovative London Business Survey (LBS), which provided a unique insight into the issues affecting business owners and managers in the capital, the GLA Economics team has been looking at the LBS’ findings more closely to gain insights into the nature of foreign business ownership in London. What do we know about…