London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2023 December 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope Inflation falls as the Bank holds steady on interest rates There was another sharp fall in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in November, falling by 0.2% on the month, and rising by 3.9% in the 12 months to November, down from 4.6% in October, and 6.7% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2023 November 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope The Chancellor delivers tax cuts, although the tax burden for households is still rising Higher than expected inflation has increased tax receipts and enabled the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to cut taxes in his Autumn Statement this month – the headline announcement was a 2 percentage point cut in National Insurance contributions (NICs) for employees from…
Autumn Statement 2023 – Overview and Economic Implications for London November 29th, 2023 by Adam Yousef On November 22nd, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt released the 2023 Autumn Statement. The Statement’s release comes amid ongoing uncertainty regarding the date of the next general election, as well as concerns about the UK’s fiscal position, the social and economic consequences of the cost-of-living crisis, and ongoing geopolitical flux. This Statement was meant to present a…
The Local Skills Improvement Plan for London: Helping Londoners get into better jobs by ensuring training matches employer demand October 26th, 2023 by Monet Durieux Introduction Skills are important for the economy, individuals and employers. For the economy, education and skills are key drivers of economic growth and productivity. For individuals, people with higher level qualifications are more likely to be in work, earn higher wages, and enjoy greater job security. And finally for employers, hiring difficulties and skills gaps…
London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2023 October 26th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, and Mike Hope UK inflation fails to fall in September Office for National Statistics (ONS) data that was published this month showed inflation didn’t fall in September. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remained at 6.7%, unchanged from August (Figure 1). Most economists had expected a small drop in September’s inflation figure. The ONS noted that the biggest downward…
How can we measure the number of green jobs? October 20th, 2023 by Monet Durieux Introduction This blog explores the recently released experimental estimates of green jobs produced for the first time by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in September 2023. Tracking the number of green jobs is important. The Mayor of London has set a target for London to achieve net zero carbon by 2030. This transition to…
The impact of ending tax-free shopping on the UK and London economies September 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Introduction It is widely known that the tourism sector contributes considerably to the UK and London economies. Few events illustrate the extent of this impact better than the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a series of restrictive lock-down measures that impacted severely on domestic and international tourism to London and the rest of the UK.…
London’s Economy Today – editorial September 2023 September 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope UK GDP falls in July Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% between June and July (Figure 1). Although a drop had been expected this was more than most economists had been predicting. Despite this monthly drop output was 0.2% higher in the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2023 August 31st, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy grew in the second quarter Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Output increased by 0.2% between April and June 2023 after increasing by 0.1% in the previous quarter. However, despite this subdued growth UK GDP remains 0.2%…
Housing Affordability and Public-Sector Recruitment in London August 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Recent studies and reports have shed some light into the links between London’s housing affordability crisis and the city’s productivity and economic growth. The argument goes that unaffordable housing is deterring London from attracting the highly-skilled human capital required for the city to retain its competitive economic advantage and global standing. Yet the affordability crisis’…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2023 July 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson, Jasmine Farqharson Inflation eases, but households still under pressure For the first time in almost two years, June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release offered some good news in that the actual figure was below what forecasters expected. The cost of living crisis is far from over though, and price increases are still extremely rapid, but the…
State of London report – June 2023 update July 4th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario On Monday the 26th of June, the City Intelligence Unit (CIU) published the third version of its bi-annual State of London report. This report represents arguably the most comprehensive and authoritative evidence base for the economic and social realities experienced by London as a whole and Londoners of different backgrounds across a broad set of…
London’s Economy Today editorial June 2023 June 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 8.7% in May unchanged from April (Figure 1). This rate was unexpected by most economists with a poll by Reuters showing that most expected a lower inflation…
The impact of rising interest rates and financial turbulence on London’s economy June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson Higher interest rates and quantitative tightening are reversing the post-2008 global policy regime, with broad-ranging consequences. Massive pandemic policy stimulus combined with stretched supply chains to spark cost pressures around the world, which became a crisis when energy prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central banks have responded to these inflationary pressures by sharply…
London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Executive Summary June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson GLA Economics’ 42nd London forecast[1] suggests that: London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2023 as the cost of living crisis slows down the post-pandemic economic rebound. Growth is expected to improve to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. London is forecast to see a 3.4% rise…
Updated London Finance Commission tables May 25th, 2023 by Mike Hope In its 2017 report[1], The London Finance Commission (LFC) concluded that a broader tax base for local government, with stronger fiscal controls at the local level, would support growth through the delivery of more integrated and efficient services and increased infrastructure investment. More devolved governance structures might support the development of the strategically important Central…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
Monitoring the employment impact of mayoral programmes and initiatives – report summary May 18th, 2023 by Abigail Lyons When the Mayor was re-elected in May 2021, he stated that “protecting, preserving and helping to create jobs will be my economic priority”. GLA Economics have therefore produced a report to monitor the employment impact of programmes and initiatives over the mayoral term. Estimates suggest that over the mayoral term (since 2016), the mayor has…
How is inflation affecting people in London? April 27th, 2023 by James Watson This article was recently published on the Economics Observatory website. London is a famously expensive city. But higher salaries, lower energy bills, and better public transport led some to believe that people living in the capital may be resilient to rising prices. By analysing the latest prices micro data, it is clear that Londoners face…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2023 April 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures The UK continues to face inflation above 10% according to the latest figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in March 2023 but still came in at 10.1% year on year. While energy prices remain the…
Post-pandemic international visitors to London March 30th, 2023 by Mike Hope Last Summer there was a significant recovery in international tourism after it nearly fell to nothing during the pandemic. This supplement reports on what is driving those trends, and how they differ from pre-pandemic trends. GLA Economics also publishes tourism forecasts for both domestic and international visitors. This analysis will feed into the development of…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Issue 247 – March 2023 March 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and James Watson Cost of living crisis not easing yet, despite Government measures Inflation rose unexpectedly in February, with signs that some price pressures may take longer to ease. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly hit 10.4% year-on-year last month, up from 10.1% in January. The three main reasons were prices for restaurants and cafes, food and clothing.…
Poverty in London 2021/22 March 27th, 2023 by Rachel Leeser Key points: The data collection used to create these poverty statistics was heavily affected by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, as in the previous year, but to a lesser extent. As a result, only a single recorded change in the Department for Work and Pensions’ (DWP) published headline low-income measures was statistically significant. The DWP advises…
The jobs of London: exploring the More Detailed Jobs data March 17th, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi Walk down a London high street, you may be hard-pressed to find a bustling tobacconist, but you will see no shortage of pastry shops and bakeries serving paninis, cinnamon swirls or pain au chocolats. As the economy, technology and consumer tastes change, the variety of industries people work in also change, a development which we…
Evening and Night Workers in London February 23rd, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankic Think of London at night and a vibrant city, buzzing with culture and variety, springs to mind. This means that, for many Londoners, evenings and nights are a time for work. We have refreshed our evidence on the capital’s Evening & Night (E&N) workers – first published in 2018[1] – to consider how changes since…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Feb 2023 February 23rd, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy appears to have avoided recession in 2022 First estimates from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are that economic activity, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP), was flat in the final quarter of 2022. If this is confirmed by later estimates it would mean that the economy just avoided entering a technical recession of…
Recent apprenticeships trends in London February 8th, 2023 by Monet Durieux & Ruth Moxon (GLA Economics) There have been fewer people starting apprenticeships in London in recent years. This is partly because of changes in government policy, including the introduction of the Apprenticeship Levy in 2017 and wider reforms to improve the quality of training. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic also caused a significant decrease in apprenticeship starts. This blog reviews…
New population projections for London – building on the results of the 2021 Census February 7th, 2023 by Ben Corr Each year the GLA demography team publish population projections reflecting the most recent available data. Our 2021-based interim projections, published at the end of January, are the first to incorporate updated estimates that build on the results of the 2021 census. A summary report and detailed outputs from the 2021-based projections are available for download…
Quality of jobs for London workers January 26th, 2023 by Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, Economist The Office for National Statistics (ONS) recently published an analysis of Job quality in the UK with a range of indicators showing different aspects of job quality at UK and subnational level.[1] London stood out in the data in a number of dimensions. Suggesting a good quality of jobs, workers living in London reported…
London’s Economy Today – editorial – Issue 245 – Jan 2023 January 26th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, James Watson and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation turning a corner, but households still face pinch points ahead Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased for a second consecutive month in December, according to the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) latest release. But at 10.5% year on year, headline CPI price growth remains near the highest level in 40 years. The latest data…
Online postings for green jobs in London January 9th, 2023 by Sawyer Phinney & Christopher Rocks (GLA Economics) To track the size and impact of London’s green economy, the GLA primarily draws from the Low Carbon Environmental Goods and Services Sector (LCEGS) dataset. Due to be updated in early 2023, the LCEGS data provides information on sales, employment, and businesses in three key areas: low carbon, renewable energy, and environmental services. This blog…
