London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2022

Rising inflation continues to drive global economic conditions The cost-of-living crisis continues to sharpen, with Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showing that consumer price index (CPI) inflation increased by 9.4% year-on-year in June, up from 9.1% a month earlier. The largest contributions to the annual rate came from household energy, vehicle fuel and food…

London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2022 update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 21 June. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross…

London’s Economy Today – June 2022 editorial

Interest rates rise as do fears of stagflation This month the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates to 1.25% from 1%, to counter inflationary pressures. This is its fifth increase from successive meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee. While the latest Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) figures provided evidence of a slowdown in the…

What to expect from the first Census results for London

On June 28th, ONS will publish the first results from the 2021 Census[1].  This blog offers an overview of what we expect to learn from the new data, as well as some of the challenges in interpreting the results. Summary The first release will contain only limited data about the size and age structure of…

Economic inactivity trends in London: Are Londoners aged 50 and over leaving the London labour market?

As we emerge from the pandemic, economists are trying to understand how COVID-19 has changed the labour market. Over one million workers were still on furlough in the UK in the autumn of 2021, leading to concern that the end of the scheme would bring high unemployment. That hasn’t happened. As labour demand picked-up over…

London’s Economy Today – May 2022 editorial

Rising prices and higher taxes are squeezing household budgets Evidence is becoming firmer of the impact of the cost-of-living crisis both on what is happening now, the differential impacts across households, and the possible impacts over the course of the year. There has been a 57% jump in the proportion of UK households cutting back…

Summary of Local Skills Report, Spring 2022

The GLA published an update of its Local Skills Report (LSR) this February, following the first iteration published in March 2021. The updated LSR was published alongside extensive Data Annexes, providing insight into the key aspects of the local labour market and skills landscape at a London and sub-regional level. This supplement summarises some of…

London’s Economy Today – April 2022 editorial

The cost of living continues to rise Increases in the cost of living intensified this month. The Ofgem price cap for standard energy bills increased by 50% and a higher rate of National Insurance Contributions (NICs) came into effect. Rising costs will have an impact on household budgets, particularly at the bottom of the income…

Poverty in London 2020/21

Key Points Overall poverty levels fell in the UK during the first year of the pandemic as median income decreased slightly and the £20 per week uplift to Universal Credit and Working Tax Credit increased income for some people towards the bottom of the income distribution. Due to difficulties during the pandemic with the underlying…

London’s Economy Today – March 2022 editorial

War in Ukraine stokes higher inflation Across the last month, the news has been dominated by the human tragedy of the war in Ukraine. As the UK joins other international allies in sanctioning Russian firms, banks and individuals, this crisis will also have a ripple effect on the global economy. Russia is the world’s second-largest…

COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (February 2022 update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London at the end of February. These scenarios have formed part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and they have been informed by expert consultation and existing literature on pandemics and macroeconomic scenarios[1]. The two main outcome variables are…

Identifying green occupations in London

In a new GLA Economics report, we use an O*NET-based[1] classification of green jobs to identify occupations that are likely to be affected by the transition to a low-carbon circular economy. This supplement summarises our approach and highlights some key findings. Challenges of defining green jobs Delivering a green economic recovery and reducing greenhouse gas…

London’s Economy Today – February 2022 editorial

Rising inflation places pressure on living costs Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reached 5.5% year-on-year in January (Figure 1), ticking up 0.1 percentage points from the December reading and setting a new 30-year high (since March 1992). The fastest monthly price growth came from alcohol…

London’s population changes during the COVID-19 pandemic

The GLA demography team just released a report that assesses recently available evidence to try to understand the combined effect of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s population. We examined this question in May last year, and found that the data collection used to monitor population change had itself been disrupted so our conclusions…

The rising cost of living and its effects on Londoners

Executive summary Key points for London: Inflation is running at a 30-year high of 5.4% year-on-year, driven by supply chain challenges and rising global fuel prices. Price growth in London is likely higher than the rest of the UK, with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimating an underlying inflation gap of…

London’s Economy Today – January 2022 editorial

The omicron wave in London has begun to decline After peaking at over 26,000 towards the end of December the seven day average of people testing positive for COVID-19 has been declining in the capital, with it dropping to around 11,000 by mid-January. Although the infection rates in London and the rest of England remain…

The economic impacts under future funding scenarios for TfL

A joint report by Transport for London and GLA Economics sets out how reductions in service levels and capital investment could affect Londoners’ welfare as a result of a shortfall in TfL’s funding. The analysis details transport user disbenefits, wider economic impacts, and the monetary cost of additional CO2 emissions that would occur should TfL…

GLA 2020-based population and household projections

On 30th September the GLA Demography Team published the 2020-based population and household projections[1]. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. This round of projections comprises both variant trend projections, based on the continuation of past trends in population change, and housing-led scenario projections which incorporate considerations…

London’s Economy Today – October 2021 editorial

Budget and Spending Review Yesterday, the Chancellor presented the October 2021 Budget and Spending Review, with both taxes and public spending set to rise firmly in the coming three years. While some of the most eye-catching policies had been previously announced (rising National Insurance Contributions) or revealed in the days before the speech (ending the…

COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (August update)

GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London at the end of August[1]. This is the seventh update to be published externally, after the first set was completed for internal use in May 2020. This supplement focuses on the latest update, and the evolution of the scenarios over the pandemic. The scenarios…

London’s Economy Today – September 2021 editorial

UK furlough scheme ends today After gradually reducing the amount of government support under the scheme since July, the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme or furlough comes to an end on 30 September. At the end of July there remained 297,400 London employments on furlough despite the introduction of employer contributions to cover part of the…

London’s Economy Today – July 2021 editorial

The economy continues to pick up gradually although difficulties are becoming apparent Despite increasing COVID-19 infection rates the government lifted most of the remaining social and business restrictions on 19 July. The economy continues to grow following the series of easings of the January lockdown restrictions. According to the latest data from the Office for…

London’s economic activity 1998-2019

In May 2021, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published[1] estimates of output to local authority level by sector and updated the historic time series from 1998. It updates previous summaries of ONS output releases[2]. This month, the ONS also published[3] an updated time series of estimates of sub-regional productivity to local authority level. The…

Macroeconomic scenarios for London’s recovery

We have published our latest macroeconomic scenarios based forecast for London in London’s Economic Outlook. We’ve also updated our macroeconomic scenarios for London’s economy, on which they are based. The scenarios are part of work on the impact of the pandemic on London’s economy that we started after the beginning of the pandemic last year.…

Reopening London: 12 graphs and maps to help us think about what happens on April 12th

The emerging London High Streets Data Service provides the most comprehensive locally derived evidence base for specific places ever assembled. Bringing together a range of proprietorial, public and primary data, it will provide a rapidly updated view of how London recovers and how specific places respond to the challenges of reopening and recovering. Underpinned by…

Poverty in London 2019/20

Key Points Overall poverty levels in London, in the period prior to the pandemic in the UK (up to March 2020), fell marginally. Evidence from elsewhere suggests that poverty levels will have increased during the pandemic, but the official data currently available covers the three year period ending March 2020. Child poverty remained stable in…

Graduate outcomes in London

At the end of 2019 the Greater London Authority (GLA) commissioned the Social Market Foundation (SMF) to conduct research focusing on how the outcomes of graduates who have studied in London and those from London vary, by a range of different characteristics. The report ‘Graduate outcomes in London’ was published on the London Datastore in…

Poverty in London 2018/19

Key Points: Overall poverty levels have stayed the same in London and nationally. Child poverty has risen in London, both in terms of number and rates and now stands at 39 per cent of all the capital’s children. This represents 800,000 children living in poverty – more than at any time since the data series…

Population Projections Explorer

Understanding London’s population, and how and where it can be expected to change, is central to so much of the work undertaken at the GLA, in the boroughs and by many others across the capital. Each year the GLA Demography team produces an updated set of population projections which provide a huge amount of data…

How many undocumented children live in London?

Estimating the numbers of migrants in the UK is notoriously difficult, especially those with an irregular migration status who may not be counted in official government statistics. It is not for nothing that the task has been described as counting the uncountable. However, information about the population of children and young people who are not…

GLA Economics forecasts slow growth for London in the coming year

GLA Economics has just published its latest economic forecasts for London. This uses our bespoke and newly updated forecasting model to estimate London’s economic output (as measured by gross value added or GVA), workforce jobs[1], household income and household spending up to 2021. At the headline level, we forecast: London’s economy is expected to have…

Indices of Deprivation 2019 Initial Analysis

The Indices of Deprivation 2019 (ID2019) are the Government’s primary measure of deprivation for small areas (known as LSOAs) in England. They replace and update the Indices of Deprivation 2015. The main index is the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), which combines measures across seven distinct aspects of deprivation. It is important to note that…

A richer understanding of Londoners’ belonging, social isolation and views on fairness – further analysis of The Survey of Londoners

In June of this year we published the headline findings from The Survey of Londoners, a major new social survey designed to measure social integration, economic fairness and food security across the city. The Survey provided new data on the extent of social mixing among Londoners and how these experiences are related to their sense…

Volunteer at City Hall’s next Data Surgery

On July 24, the Greater London Authority will host it’s next Data Surgery for Civil Society organisations looking for support and guidance to get the most out of their data. We are looking for data scientists, analysts, statisticians and researchers who would be willing to volunteer for a couple of hours and share their expertise…

Assessing the unequal impact of tax and welfare reform in London

Today, GLA City Intelligence published the first cumulative impact assessment (CIA) of welfare and tax reform in London. The UK tax-benefit system has undergone wide-reaching changes since 2010, including the gradual rollout of Universal Credit, above-inflation increases in the tax-free personal tax allowance and the introduction of the National Living Wage, alongside a host of…

The first food security estimates for London

Back in October 2018, we wrote about the GLA’s plans to measure food security in London for the first time, through a series of questions included in the Survey of Londoners. The Survey has now concluded and the first results have been published on the London Datastore. With regard to food security the picture is…

Using digital ‘exhaust’ to inform our Social Evidence Base

The City Intelligence Unit has published findings from research investigating the potential of new digital data sources to inform social policy analysis at City Hall. We are undertaking a programme of work known as the Social Evidence Base to inform policy on issues such as social integration, economic fairness and social mobility – areas which…

Measuring food security in London

In the Mayor of London’s draft Food Strategy he commits to ensuring to do all he can so that all Londoners can eat well and that they are able to enjoy food security for themselves and their family. Many Londoners are not able to eat well at home, in part because of issues relating to…

Podcast: Putting data science to work saving lives

Not many people can see a link between fighting fires, banking and tailor-made dog food, but not everyone sees the world the same way as Apollo Gerolymbos. In an hour long podcast, Apollo – London Fire Brigades Head of Data Analytics – talks about all things data. He discusses how and why he became the…

Take part in our sports data expedition

We are hosting a whole day Sports Data Expedition on the 31st of October at City Hall and are looking for volunteers to take part. What is a data expedition? A data expedition is an event that brings together those that might hold data, policy makers and data scientists to gain insight on a chosen…

The GLA voluntarily adopts the Code of Practice for Statistics

Today, the GLA is voluntarily adopting the Code of Practice for Statistics. Part of the Mayor’s commitment to transparency, this builds on the GLA’s long history of producing and publishing high-quality statistics, and our commitment to the provision of open data through the London Datastore – our award-winning data platform for London. In a world…

Tracking social integration in London

Over the past year the GLA Intelligence Unit has been assisting in the development of the Mayor’s strategy to improve social integration in London. One of the main parts of this strategy is to improve London’s evidence base to measure, evaluate and share findings on the state of social integration. We have published a set…

Beyond London? Your Views on a Schools Atlas we can Share, Scale, and Improve

It’s been two years since we last wrote about the London Schools Atlas on this blog.  In the intervening period, amidst a number of enhancements, we’ve given it an all-new user interface and updated with the latest data available from the DfE.  As the title to this post indicates, we now have a decision before…

GLA becomes a partner of City Data Hack 2018 (16–18 March)

The Greater London Authority has chosen to partner on City Data Hack 2018, a Future Cities Catapult initiative that will bring together talented and passionate weekend participants, mentors and challenge partners keen to transform the experiences of citizens in London through data and digital solutions. “The main reason for hosting this event”, City Data Hack…

A ‘New Deal’ for City Data?

Yesterday saw City Hall host an ‘Urban Data Markets’ conference. The event — bringing together some of the best data and smart city brains from London, Berlin and beyond — was opened by London’s CDO, Theo Blackwell. Having launched the listening exercise for the Mayor’s forthcoming Smart London Plan this week, Theo emphasised the vital role data has to play across public services,…

City DataStore: Data Sharing for Impact from London’s Data Ecosystem

London has taken another step towards creating a more frictionless data sharing and governance environment this week with the launch of the City DataStore.  The simplest way to describe this is as “a private twin” to the London DataStore – an environment in which new forms of data from a wider variety of sources, can…