Rising unemployment and widening inequalities May 19th, 2026 by Pauline Bucher Key Points: Background London’s unemployment rate has been rising for over two years. The headline, seasonally adjusted, Labour Force Survey rate was 7.4% in the three months to March 2026 (or 6.6% on a four-quarter moving average basis). Since early 2024, the rate has consistently remained above its pre-pandemic benchmark of just under 5%, indicating…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2026 January 29th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation picks up in December The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation this month. This showed that CPI inflation rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2025; up from 3.2% in November (Figure 1). This was higher than expected by most surveyed economists who…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2025 December 18th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP shrinks in October Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy contracted in October. Output fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 after growing by 0.1% in the three months to September (Figure 1). This was the first fall in three-monthly GDP…
The Inclusive Talent Strategy November 27th, 2025 by Kathryn Petrie, Principal Economist, Insights team, Skills and Employment Unit, GLA Last month the GLA and London Councils launched the Inclusive Talent Strategy (ITS). The ITS is a vital step in delivering the London Growth Plan. It aims to ensure that all Londoners can benefit from growth by building a skilled workforce and helping more people access high-quality jobs, while making it easier for employers to…
Indices of Deprivation 2025: an exploratory analysis November 10th, 2025 by Matthew Tibbles Introduction The Indices of Deprivation 2025 (IoD25) provides a suite of measures on relative levels of deprivation across 33,755 neighbourhoods, called Lower-Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs), in England.[1] This latest release updates and replaces the Indices of Deprivation 2019 (IoD19). This note provides a short summary of the main findings and trends in the data,…
The impact of motherhood on employment and earnings in London October 30th, 2025 by Pauline Bucher Gender inequalities in the UK and London labour markets are large. Recent data show that women living in London are around 10 percentage points less likely to be in work than men; and earn on average 19% less per hour than men.[1] Economists highlight the role of children in gender inequality, with international studies finding…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2025 July 31st, 2025 by Daryl Rozario Jubair Ahmed Gordon Douglass Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK’s GDP contracts for a second month in a row in May The latest monthly UK GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed an unexpected contraction of 0.1% in May 2025 (Figure 1). This was the second monthly decline in a row following a 0.3% drop in April and was counter to…
The State of London Report 2025 July 31st, 2025 by Simon Webster In June 2025, the GLA’s City Intelligence Unit released the sixth edition of its State of London report, a wide-ranging statistical publication presenting a comprehensive overview of London’s current economic and social conditions. Drawing from over 100 datasets across 11 policy domains, the report tracks key indicators that underpin the work of the Mayor, the…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2025 update) June 26th, 2025 by Ali Ögcem GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 19th June. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2027). Further, we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2025 May 29th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK sees strong GDP growth at the start of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.7% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.1% in Q4 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
Second job holders in London April 24th, 2025 by Yiqiao Chen More than 200,000 Londoners had more than one job in 2024 – about 4% of those in employment. Multiple job holding has become more common over the past decade, growing from 147,000 (3.6% of London’s workforce) in 2014 to 201,000 (4.3%) in 2024. Cost-of-living pressures, greater working flexibility, and the expansion of the gig economy…
In-work poverty in London – An overview of trends and drivers, 1996-2023 March 17th, 2025 by Guillaume Paugam 1 Introduction In London, 2.2 million people were in relative poverty according to the latest data for 2020/21-2022/23 – meaning that 24% of the capital’s residents lived in households with less than 60% of UK median income.[1] This was higher than the UK-wide rate of 22%. At that time, many labour market indicators in London…
Long-term sickness and the London labour market February 27th, 2025 by Guillaume Paugam 1 Introduction The link between long-term sickness and labour market participation has become a prominent issue among UK policymakers since economic inactivity due to ill-health rose following the pandemic.[1] The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed that, in the 12 months to September 2024, 2.5m people were inactive because of long-term sickness in…
London macroeconomic scenarios (December 2024 update) December 19th, 2024 by Sixia Zhang GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 17th December. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2026). Further, we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2024 November 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang Bank of England cuts interest rates The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates again in November, with the Bank Base Rate being cut from 5.0% to 4.75% (Figure 1). This is the second cut in interest rates by the BoE this year. Figure 1: Alongside this decision the BoE published its November 2024 Monetary…
Payrolled employments by nationality September 26th, 2024 by Guillaume Paugam The share of payrolled employee jobs among London residents that are held by non-UK nationals has been increasing since the UK’s formal exit from the European Union and the start of the pandemic in early 2020. A big increase in jobs held by non-EU/non-UK citizens has been driving this change, even as the number held…
Detailed employee jobs report – 2022 (summer 2024 update) July 31st, 2024 by Yiqiao Chen The total number of employee jobs in London rose steeply in 2022 as the capital recovered from the pandemic, adding 297,500 jobs (6%) in the year to reach 5,595,000. That was also well above the pandemic peak of 5,239,000 in 2019 (7%). This blog delves into the detailed data based on the ONS’ Business Register…
London at night: An updated evidence base for a 24 hour city May 31st, 2024 by Yiqiao Chen This blog summarises our recently published work on London’s night time economy. Purpose GLA Economics published an Evidence Base for a 24 Hour City in 2018 to support the Mayor of London, the Night Czar, the Night-Time Commission, and boroughs on night-time planning and strategies. The March 2024 update to the evidence base shows the…
Evidence from the Employer Skills Survey 2022 April 19th, 2024 by Mariia Vorotchenko (GLA Economics) The Employer Skills Survey 2022 is the sixth edition of the survey conducted by the DfE since 2011. The survey aims to identify the skills challenges faced by employers, in their existing workforce as well as when recruiting. In particular, the survey covers three main areas: Recruitment and skill-shortage vacancies Skills gaps Training and workforce…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2024 January 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation ticks up in December UK inflation surprisingly increased in December according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up to 4.0% in December 2023 from 3.9% in November (Figure 1). This was the first time the rate had increased since February 2023 and had…
London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Executive Summary June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson GLA Economics’ 42nd London forecast[1] suggests that: London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2023 as the cost of living crisis slows down the post-pandemic economic rebound. Growth is expected to improve to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. London is forecast to see a 3.4% rise…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
Monitoring the employment impact of mayoral programmes and initiatives – report summary May 18th, 2023 by Abigail Lyons When the Mayor was re-elected in May 2021, he stated that “protecting, preserving and helping to create jobs will be my economic priority”. GLA Economics have therefore produced a report to monitor the employment impact of programmes and initiatives over the mayoral term. Estimates suggest that over the mayoral term (since 2016), the mayor has…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2023 April 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures The UK continues to face inflation above 10% according to the latest figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in March 2023 but still came in at 10.1% year on year. While energy prices remain the…
London labour market projections 2022 – Interim update October 27th, 2022 by Nick Jacob London’s economy has generated employment at an unprecedented rate over the past 30 years, adding nearly 2m jobs since 1991. But what can we expect over the next 30 years? To help answer this question, GLA Economics has published an interim update of its long-term employment projections. This supplement provides an overview of the report,…
London macroeconomic scenarios (August 2022 update) August 25th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 25 August[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2024) and we…
The cost of living – August 2022 update August 22nd, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, James Watson, Nick Jacob and Yvette Smith The cost of living crisis increasingly dominates the outlook for London, threatening to widen existing inequalities, halt the recovery from the pandemic and push many into being unable to afford necessities. Our latest report builds on previous work at the start of this year to set out an evidence base on the impact of the…
COVID-19: London macroeconomic scenarios (December update) December 16th, 2021 by James Watson GLA Economics has recently published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London in the 39th edition of London’s Economic Outlook. We have also updated our macroeconomic scenarios publication with more information on the scenarios and their drivers. These scenarios are part of wider work on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on London’s economy, and…
London’s Economy Today – December 2021 editorial December 16th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Omicron variant leads to the introduction of targeted measures In the run up to the Christmas holidays the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 was discovered in Southern Africa. Cases have quickly been reported in Europe, including the UK, and around the world, with examples of community transmission being reported. At the time of writing preliminary…
The furlough scheme in London November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Ammar Ljubijankić, and Christopher Rocks Introduction The government’s Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) – or furlough scheme – closed at the end of September 2021, having run in some form since March 2020. This note reviews the latest official statistics and third-party analyses to consider how the scheme has affected Londoners. Use of furlough was relatively high in London, particularly…
London’s Economy Today – November 2021 editorial November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation picks up sharply in October, with higher rates still to come October saw annual CPI inflation accelerate sharply to 4.2% from 3.1% in September. This annual reading is a ten-year high, while the monthly price increase of 1.1 percentage points is perhaps even more striking as the fastest in nearly 30 years. While inflation…
London’s Economy Today – August 2021 editorial August 26th, 2021 by Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson London’s economy recovers strongly although weaknesses remain This month the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its first estimate of London GDP growth for Q4 2020 and GLA Economics published its latest scenarios for the London economy. The ONS data show that the drop in London’s economic output in 2020 was less deep than for…
