The 2026 Spring Statement: Overview and Potential Implications for London March 26th, 2026 by Adam Yousef On 3rd March 2026 the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, presented an update on the UK’s economic performance amidst growing national and international uncertainty. Concurrently, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published an update of its Economic and Fiscal Outlook[1]. This supplement summarises the key announcements made and potential implications for London’s economy. Growth,…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2026 March 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang Conflict in the Middle East triggers global commodities shock amid fears for the cost of living The US and Israel began attacks on Iran on 28 February. Iran has responded by attacking several countries around the Persian Gulf and elsewhere and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping. The Strait usually has around…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2026 February 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows sluggishly at the end of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow at the end of 2025. Output increased by 0.1% in Q4 2025 after also growing by 0.1% in Q3 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2025 November 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang Chancellor announces significant revenue raising measures in the Budget The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget introduces £26 billion in tax rises by 2029-30, to fund £11 billion in spending increases and cut borrowing from 4.5% to 1.9% of GDP over the forecast period. Spending commitments include removing the two-child benefit limit (costing £3 billion and lifting 450,000…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2025 August 28th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth beats expectations in second quarter Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow in the second quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.3% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.7% in Q1 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth was higher…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2025 May 29th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK sees strong GDP growth at the start of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.7% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.1% in Q4 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2024 November 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang Bank of England cuts interest rates The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates again in November, with the Bank Base Rate being cut from 5.0% to 4.75% (Figure 1). This is the second cut in interest rates by the BoE this year. Figure 1: Alongside this decision the BoE published its November 2024 Monetary…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2024 September 26th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy doesn’t grow for a second month in a row The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data this month that showed that output in the UK economy did not grow in July compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This follows on from no growth in June either. Figure 1: Looking at the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2024 August 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK cuts interest rates for first time since 2020 The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this month. The Bank Base Rate was lowered from 5.25% to 5% on 1 August after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five members to four to reduce the rate by…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2024 June 27th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth was flat in April The UK economy did not grow in April according to new data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data showed that monthly GDP grew by 0% in April 2024 (Figure 1). This followed on from growth of 0.4% in March. Nevertheless, the ONS estimates that…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2023 December 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope Inflation falls as the Bank holds steady on interest rates There was another sharp fall in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in November, falling by 0.2% on the month, and rising by 3.9% in the 12 months to November, down from 4.6% in October, and 6.7% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2023 November 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope The Chancellor delivers tax cuts, although the tax burden for households is still rising Higher than expected inflation has increased tax receipts and enabled the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, to cut taxes in his Autumn Statement this month – the headline announcement was a 2 percentage point cut in National Insurance contributions (NICs) for employees from…
London’s Economy Today – editorial September 2023 September 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope UK GDP falls in July Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% between June and July (Figure 1). Although a drop had been expected this was more than most economists had been predicting. Despite this monthly drop output was 0.2% higher in the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2023 August 31st, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy grew in the second quarter Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Output increased by 0.2% between April and June 2023 after increasing by 0.1% in the previous quarter. However, despite this subdued growth UK GDP remains 0.2%…
London’s Economy Today editorial June 2023 June 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 8.7% in May unchanged from April (Figure 1). This rate was unexpected by most economists with a poll by Reuters showing that most expected a lower inflation…
The impact of rising interest rates and financial turbulence on London’s economy June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson Higher interest rates and quantitative tightening are reversing the post-2008 global policy regime, with broad-ranging consequences. Massive pandemic policy stimulus combined with stretched supply chains to spark cost pressures around the world, which became a crisis when energy prices surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Central banks have responded to these inflationary pressures by sharply…
London’s Economic Outlook: Spring 2023 Executive Summary June 20th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, James Watson GLA Economics’ 42nd London forecast[1] suggests that: London’s real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate is forecast to be 1.1% in 2023 as the cost of living crisis slows down the post-pandemic economic rebound. Growth is expected to improve to 1.8% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. London is forecast to see a 3.4% rise…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
London’s Economy Today editorial – Issue 247 – March 2023 March 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and James Watson Cost of living crisis not easing yet, despite Government measures Inflation rose unexpectedly in February, with signs that some price pressures may take longer to ease. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly hit 10.4% year-on-year last month, up from 10.1% in January. The three main reasons were prices for restaurants and cafes, food and clothing.…
