London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2026 April 30th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang The economic fallout from the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues Since the opening of hostilities between the US and Israel and Iran on 28 February the economic effects of this conflict have become more evident. Despite the announcement of a ceasefire on 7 April the Strait of Hormuz has remained severely restricted to…
London’s Economy Today editorial – March 2026 March 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang Conflict in the Middle East triggers global commodities shock amid fears for the cost of living The US and Israel began attacks on Iran on 28 February. Iran has responded by attacking several countries around the Persian Gulf and elsewhere and declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed to most shipping. The Strait usually has around…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2026 February 26th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows sluggishly at the end of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow at the end of 2025. Output increased by 0.1% in Q4 2025 after also growing by 0.1% in Q3 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2026 January 29th, 2026 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation picks up in December The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation this month. This showed that CPI inflation rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to December 2025; up from 3.2% in November (Figure 1). This was higher than expected by most surveyed economists who…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2025 December 18th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP shrinks in October Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy contracted in October. Output fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025 after growing by 0.1% in the three months to September (Figure 1). This was the first fall in three-monthly GDP…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2025 November 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang Chancellor announces significant revenue raising measures in the Budget The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget introduces £26 billion in tax rises by 2029-30, to fund £11 billion in spending increases and cut borrowing from 4.5% to 1.9% of GDP over the forecast period. Spending commitments include removing the two-child benefit limit (costing £3 billion and lifting 450,000…
London’s Economy Today editorial – October 2025 October 30th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK inflation remains steady in September The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data on September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation this month. This showed that CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.8% in the 12 months to September 2025; it has remained at this level since July (Figure 1). This was lower than anticipated by…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2025 September 25th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK sees no growth in July Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy didn’t grow in July (Figure 1). This followed growth of 0.4% in June although this lack of growth was what had been expected by surveyed economists. Figure 1: Contributions to monthly UK GDP…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2025 August 28th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth beats expectations in second quarter Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy continued to grow in the second quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.3% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.7% in Q1 2025 (Figure 1). This rate of growth was higher…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2025 July 31st, 2025 by Daryl Rozario Jubair Ahmed Gordon Douglass Ali Ögcem and Sixia Zhang UK’s GDP contracts for a second month in a row in May The latest monthly UK GDP data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed an unexpected contraction of 0.1% in May 2025 (Figure 1). This was the second monthly decline in a row following a 0.3% drop in April and was counter to…
London macroeconomic scenarios (June 2025 update) June 26th, 2025 by Ali Ögcem GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 19th June. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2027). Further, we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2025 June 26th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Jubair Ahmed, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang Chancellor announces additional capital allocation but with tight departmental spending increases in the Spending Review The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, delivered the Spending Review 2025 on 11 June. In it she continued the government’s approach to public investment, allocating an additional £115 billion in capital investment over the period to 2029-30. Most importantly…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2025 May 29th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK sees strong GDP growth at the start of the year Data published this month by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew strongly in the first quarter of 2025. Output increased by 0.7% in Q1 2025 after growing by 0.1% in Q4 2024 (Figure 1). This rate of growth…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2025 April 24th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Jubair Ahmed, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP grew strongly in February The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has this month published data for UK GDP growth in February. This data showed that UK output grew quite strongly in February, with GDP rising by 0.5% compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This compares to zero growth in January, which was…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2025 February 27th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK sees slow growth at the end of 2024 The UK economy grew in the final quarter of 2024 according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in February 2025. This showed that real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.1% in Q4 2024, after not growing at all in Q3…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2025 January 30th, 2025 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation slows marginally in December Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in December, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). CPI inflation rose by 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024, down from 2.6% in the 12 months to November (Figure 1). Figure 1: This drop in inflation had…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2024 December 19th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, and Sixia Zhang UK GDP falls unexpectedly in October The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data for UK GDP growth in October. This data showed that UK output unexpectedly shrank in October with GDP dropping by 0.1% compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). Figure 1: Contributions to monthly UK GD) growth, October 2023 to October 2024…
London’s Economy Today editorial – November 2024 November 28th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang Bank of England cuts interest rates The Bank of England (BoE) cut interest rates again in November, with the Bank Base Rate being cut from 5.0% to 4.75% (Figure 1). This is the second cut in interest rates by the BoE this year. Figure 1: Alongside this decision the BoE published its November 2024 Monetary…
London’s Economy Today editorial – September 2024 September 26th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK economy doesn’t grow for a second month in a row The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data this month that showed that output in the UK economy did not grow in July compared to a month earlier (Figure 1). This follows on from no growth in June either. Figure 1: Looking at the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2024 August 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Ali Ögcem, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK cuts interest rates for first time since 2020 The Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 this month. The Bank Base Rate was lowered from 5.25% to 5% on 1 August after the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by five members to four to reduce the rate by…
London’s Economy Today editorial – July 2024 July 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP continues to grow in May Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy grew robustly in May. Monthly real GDP increased by 0.4% in May 2024 after stagnating in April (Figure 1). Figure 1: Monthly UK GDP growth and its contributions, May 2023 to May…
London’s Economy Today editorial – June 2024 June 27th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP growth was flat in April The UK economy did not grow in April according to new data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The data showed that monthly GDP grew by 0% in April 2024 (Figure 1). This followed on from growth of 0.4% in March. Nevertheless, the ONS estimates that…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2024 May 31st, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, Sixia Zhang UK GDP grows strongly in first quarter of 2024 After two quarters of mild negative growth of -0.3% in 2023 Q4 and -0.1% in 2023 Q3, the UK grew strongly by 0.6% in 2024 Q1, reports the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Year-on-year growth was a more modest 0.2%, and over the last two years…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2024 April 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Sixia Zhang UK GDP saw further growth in February This month saw the publication by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) of monthly GDP numbers for the UK for February 2024 (Figure 1). This data showed that the UK economy grew by 0.1% month on month in February. This follows monthly growth of 0.3% in January (revised…
London’s Economy Today editorial – February 2024 February 29th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Sixia Zhang UK enters recession at the end of 2023 Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in mid-February showed that the UK had entered a recession in the second half of 2023. After contracting by 0.1% in Q3 2023 GDP fell by a further 0.3% in Q4 2023 (Figure 1). A contraction of GDP…
Revenue centralisation and economic growth in London: a counterfactual analysis February 28th, 2024 by Adam Yousef Compared to other OECD countries, the UK remains one of the most fiscally centralised countries. Data from the OECD’s Revenue Statistics publications shows that in recent years no more than 6% of the UK’s total tax revenue has been raised locally, compared to just under 11% for the OECD on average. Studies of the impact…
London’s Economy Today editorial – January 2024 January 25th, 2024 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass and Sixia Zhang UK inflation ticks up in December UK inflation surprisingly increased in December according to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation ticked up to 4.0% in December 2023 from 3.9% in November (Figure 1). This was the first time the rate had increased since February 2023 and had…
London’s Economy Today editorial – December 2023 December 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope Inflation falls as the Bank holds steady on interest rates There was another sharp fall in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in November, falling by 0.2% on the month, and rising by 3.9% in the 12 months to November, down from 4.6% in October, and 6.7% in September, according to the Office for National Statistics…
The impact of ending tax-free shopping on the UK and London economies September 28th, 2023 by Adam Yousef Introduction It is widely known that the tourism sector contributes considerably to the UK and London economies. Few events illustrate the extent of this impact better than the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a series of restrictive lock-down measures that impacted severely on domestic and international tourism to London and the rest of the UK.…
London’s Economy Today – editorial September 2023 September 28th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope UK GDP falls in July Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that the UK economy contracted by 0.5% between June and July (Figure 1). Although a drop had been expected this was more than most economists had been predicting. Despite this monthly drop output was 0.2% higher in the…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2023 August 31st, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson UK economy grew in the second quarter Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy grew marginally in the second quarter of 2023. Output increased by 0.2% between April and June 2023 after increasing by 0.1% in the previous quarter. However, despite this subdued growth UK GDP remains 0.2%…
London’s Economy Today editorial June 2023 June 30th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation remains stubbornly high in the UK Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this month showed that annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation stood at 8.7% in May unchanged from April (Figure 1). This rate was unexpected by most economists with a poll by Reuters showing that most expected a lower inflation…
London’s Economy Today editorial – May 2023 May 25th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario London accelerates ahead of UK in latest growth data Output growth in London was the fastest in the UK, according to the latest regional GDP figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). And while the data only run to Q3 2022, more recent figures suggest the capital continues to grow ahead of the rest…
How is inflation affecting people in London? April 27th, 2023 by James Watson This article was recently published on the Economics Observatory website. London is a famously expensive city. But higher salaries, lower energy bills, and better public transport led some to believe that people living in the capital may be resilient to rising prices. By analysing the latest prices micro data, it is clear that Londoners face…
London’s Economy Today editorial – April 2023 April 27th, 2023 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, Jasmine Farquharson Inflation still in double digits as doubts arise about persistent price pressures The UK continues to face inflation above 10% according to the latest figures by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed in March 2023 but still came in at 10.1% year on year. While energy prices remain the…
London macroeconomic scenarios (August 2022 update) August 25th, 2022 by James Watson GLA Economics published its latest macroeconomic scenarios-based forecast for London on 25 August[1]. The two main outcome variables are real Gross Value Added (GVA) – a measure of London’s output – and workforce jobs (WFJ) – a measure of employment. We project both variables over the medium term (to the end of 2024) and we…
London’s Economy Today editorial – August 2022 August 25th, 2022 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Jasmine Farquharson, and Mike Hope Inflation rises strongly again Annual UK Consumer Price Index inflation (CPI) rose to 10.1% in July, up 0.7 percentage points from the June rate of 9.4%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is the highest rate of inflation since 1982, according to ONS modelling. Rising food and non-alcoholic drink prices made the…
London’s Economy Today – December 2021 editorial December 16th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Gordon Douglass, Mike Hope, and Jasmine Farquharson Omicron variant leads to the introduction of targeted measures In the run up to the Christmas holidays the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 was discovered in Southern Africa. Cases have quickly been reported in Europe, including the UK, and around the world, with examples of community transmission being reported. At the time of writing preliminary…
London’s Economy Today – November 2021 editorial November 25th, 2021 by Daryl Rozario, Mike Hope, James Watson, and Jasmine Farquharson Inflation picks up sharply in October, with higher rates still to come October saw annual CPI inflation accelerate sharply to 4.2% from 3.1% in September. This annual reading is a ten-year high, while the monthly price increase of 1.1 percentage points is perhaps even more striking as the fastest in nearly 30 years. While inflation…
London’s Economy Today – August 2021 editorial August 26th, 2021 by Mike Hope and Jasmine Farquharson London’s economy recovers strongly although weaknesses remain This month the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its first estimate of London GDP growth for Q4 2020 and GLA Economics published its latest scenarios for the London economy. The ONS data show that the drop in London’s economic output in 2020 was less deep than for…
