Population and household projections

GLA Demography produces a range of population projections which are used to help inform planning and policy work within the GLA and across London. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available.

The two main types of population projection which we produce are “trend-based” projections, which are based on a cohort component model that uses past trends in births, deaths and migration to project future populations, and “housing-led” projections, which reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory taken from the most recent Strategic Housing Availability Assessment (SHLAA).

The production of these variants has been driven by the desire to meet the needs of a wide range of users. For most purposes the GLA recommends that users should choose the housing-led variant projection.

Further information about the relationship between the different population projections which we produce can be found here.

A detailed methodology document is also provided alongside each set of population projections when they are released, which can help users decide which set of population projections is most appropriate for their needs

The population projection datasets can be accessed from the following links:

Housing-led projections

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs, London wards and London MSOAs. The release also include components of change (births, deaths and migration data). A guide to the housing-led projection methodology and to the small area projection methodology (used for producing ward and MSOA outputs) are also produced.

Trend-based projections

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different years’ migration data. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales and nationally for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The datasets include projections, detailed component of change, a report analysing the key points arising from the data and our guide to the trend-based projection methodology.

Ethnic group projections

The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough only and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the central trend projection, and one consistent with the housing-led projection.

Employment-led projections

We have also published 2016-based employment-led projections for London that provide population projections which are consistent with GLA Economics employment projection scenarios. However, these are an experimental output which we may not update in the future.

Projections archive

All of the information we released as part of older rounds of population projections, which have now been superseded, are available from our projections archive.