Population and household projections

GLA Demography produces a range of population projections which are used to help inform planning and policy work within the GLA and across London. Most of our projections are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available.

The two main types of population projection which we produce are trend-based projections, which are based on a cohort component model that uses past trends in births, deaths and migration to project future populations, and housing-led projections, which reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory.

The production of these variants has been driven by the desire to meet the needs of a wide range of users. The GLA recommends that for most purposes users should choose a housing-led projection.

Detailed methodology documentation is published alongside the population projections which can help users decide which set of population projections is most appropriate for their needs.

The population projection datasets can be accessed from the following links:

Housing-led projections

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs, London wards and London MSOAs. The release also include components of change (births, deaths and migration data). The GLA recommends that for most purposes users should choose a housing-led projection.

The Projections Explorer app allows easy access to the 2020-based housing-led projections and provides data interrogation and download tools.

Trend-based projections

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales and nationally for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The datasets include summary workbooks for London boroughs and detailed component of change outputs for all model areas.

Projections documentation

Detailed methodological and model configuration documentation is available for each of the GLA demographic models. This information can help users decide which projection is most appropriate for their needs.

Ethnic group projections

The 2016-based ethnic group projections were produced for London boroughs only and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants were produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection.

Employment-led projections

The 2016-based employment-led projections for London provide population projections which are consistent with GLA Economics employment projection scenarios. These were an experimental output and may not be updated.

Projections archive

All of the information we released as part of older rounds of population projections, which have now been superseded, are available from our projections archive.