Housing-led population projections
*Update 28 August 2026 - IMPORTANT UPDATE
As a result of a processing error, the incorrect version of the projections were initially published on the 21st/25th August. This issue affected all outputs of the housing-led projections. The trend-based outputs were unaffected. The housing-led projection files on this page were updated 28th August.
*Update 25 August 2026 - updated Excel output files
Updated versions of the Excel output files have been published with the intention of making the projections more accessible to a greater range of users. Two different workbooks are now available for each variant with varying amounts of detail. Both include aggregations of population to commonly used age groups. Full breakdowns by single year of age for MSOA and wards are now only included in the detailed csv files.
*Update 21 August 2026 - the 2024-based projections are now available
Accompanying documentation and the update to the projections explorer tool have been delayed by a technical issue and will be added in the coming days.
Three 'core' variants of the housing-led projections have been produced - central, high, low. These are intended to cover a reasonable range of possible outcomes and be suitable for use in common planning and policy activities. Additional variants covering a wider range of scenarios will be published in the upcoming release of detailed outputs, intended for use in analysis and other modelling activities.
The three core variants differ in their fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions used, but all use the same housing assumptions for areas within London, derived from the 2026 London SHLAA.
The outputs are available on both 2022 electoral wards, and 2021 Middle-layer Super Output Areas (MSOA) (local authority and region outputs are included with both versions).
Unless the application explicitly requires data for wards, we recommend the MSOA version of the projections for most users. Ward boundaries are no longer consistent with those of statistical geographies, requiring additional steps to fit input data for use in the models, which degrades the accuracy of the data. We have included the MSOA names published by the House of Commons Library in the MSOA outputs to make them more relatable to users.
Though both versions of the projections are based on the same methods and assumptions, the results for wards and MSOAs are not consistent with one another because of the modifiable areal unit problem.
Two Excel files are included for each projection variant. One includes data for local authority level and above only and population by single year of age. The other includes population for small geographies, but without breakdown of population by single year of age. Both include:
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estimated and projected population by quinary age band and broad population group from 2011 to 2051
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summary annual components of change
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Median age of the population by year
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Assumed life expectancy at birth and at age 65
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Assumed total fertility rate and mean age of childbearing
For the Excel outputs, data are only included for areas within London.
The accompanying zip archives contain outputs for surrounding areas, population by single year of age for MSOAs and wards, as well as more detailed outputs that include age specific fertility rates, births by age of mother, and components of change by single year of age.
Note: The inclusion of outputs for areas outside of London is is primarily to provide transparency about the production of data for London itself. The GLA does not promote these outputs for use in decision making outside of London. The projections were produced without reference to current or future plans or assessments of housing capacity in areas outside of London and the results and assumptions in no way represent a view of likely future housing delivery in those areas.
The GLA 2024-based trend projections are also available and include outputs for local authority districts and regions in England and Wales up to 2051.
The Interim 2024-based housing-led projections, published as part of the evidence base for the draft London Plan have been superseded, but will remain available
Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. Projections provided through the service earlier in the year will be udpated in the coming weeks to reflect the latest housing and population data.
2022-based 10-year migration Central Fertility Identified Capacity (54.77 MB)2022-based housing-led population projections for London boroughs and electoral wards (2022 boundaries).
Projection based on:
10-year period of local migration flows with ward results constrained to match the results of the GLA 10-year trend-based projection for ITL2 subregions.
Central fertility scenario
Identified Capacity housing delivery scenario derived from the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment
- 2022-based 15-year migration High Fertility Identified Capacity (54.78 MB)
2022-based housing-led population projections for London boroughs and electoral wards (2022 boundaries).
Projection based on:
11-year period of local migration flows with ward results constrained to match the results of the GLA 15-year trend-based projection for ITL2 subregions.
High fertility scenario
Identified Capacity housing delivery scenario derived from the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment
- 2022-based 5-year migration Low Fertility Identified Capacity (54.76 MB)
2022-based housing-led population projections for London boroughs and electoral wards (2022 boundaries).
Projection based on:
5-year period of local migration flows with ward results constrained to match the results of the GLA 5-year trend-based projection for ITL2 subregions.
Low fertility scenario
Identified Capacity housing delivery scenario derived from the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment
- 2021-based Housing Targets 10-year migration (64.25 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA housing-led population projections for London boroughs and wards (2022 boundaries). 10-year migration trend constrained at the NUTS2 level to the GLA 10-year trend projection. Housing Targets housing development scenario.
- 2021-based Identified Capacity 10-year migration. Borough and ward projection. (64.22 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA housing-led population projections for London boroughs and wards (2022 boundaries). 10-year migration trend constrained at the NUTS2 level to the GLA 10-year trend projection. Identified Capacity housing development scenario.
