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Modelled population backseries

Greater London Authority (GLA)
Data
Created a year ago, updated 8 days ago

These modelled annual population estimates were created for use the GLA's population projections.

They are intended to provide a consistent series of annual population and components of change between census years with all change accounted for by the standard components of change (births, deaths, and migration).

The official mid-year population estimates published by ONS are available here.

The original detailed internal migration data published by ONS is available here.

An overview of the general approach used to create these estimates is described in this presentation delivered at the 2022 BSPS conference.

* 17 April 2023 code for producing the modelled 2021 detailed internal migration flows is now available on Github

populationdemographyinternal migration
gla_modelled_estimates_series_LAD_EW_2001_2022_(2021_geog)_wide.csv  (33.41 MB)

From
30/06/2001
To
30/06/2022

Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2022 for local authority districts (2021 geography) in England and Wales.

These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2022-based population projections.

  Local Authority
gla_modelled_estimates_series_LAD_EW_2001_2023_(2023_geog)_wide.csv  (33.58 MB)

From
30/06/2001
To
30/06/2023

Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2023 for local authority districts (2023 geography) in England and Wales.

These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2023-based population projections.

  Local Authority
gla_modelled_estimates_series_WD22_London_2011_2022_wide.csv  (87.08 MB)

Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2011 to mid-2022 for electoral wards (2022 geography) in London.

The estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2022-based population projections.

modelled_backseries (updated 14-07-2023).csv  (56.05 MB)

*18 July 2024 - estimates including more recent ONS mid-year estimates are now available

Modelled annual estimates of population from mid-2011 to mid-2021 for 2021 local authority districts and regions in England and Wales.

The estimates were produced for use in the GLA interim 2021-based population projections.

These are an updated version of the original series published in February 2023. The modelling process used for these updated estimates has been improved to give results that better align with the official 2021 mid-year population estimates.

modelled_backseries.csv  (26.08 MB)

From
30/06/2011
To
30/06/2021

*14 July 2023 - these have now been superseded

Modelled annual estimates of population from mid-2011 to mid-2021 for 2021 local authority districts and regions in England and Wales


origin_destination_lad_2012_2021.csv  (558.48 MB)

From
01/07/2011
To
30/06/2021

*Large file* Detailed annual internal migration flows by age, sex, origin and destination for years ending mid-2012 to mid-2021. Data up to year ending mid-2020 are based directly on the original estimates published by ONS. Data for the year ending mid-2021 is modelled by the GLA. These data are published on 2021 boundaries.

  Local Authority
origin_destination_2002_to_2020_(2021_geog).rds  (106.15 MB)

From
01/07/2001
To
30/06/2020

Detailed annual migration flows by origin and destination from 2002 to 2020. Original data published by ONS. Series processed to consistent 2021 geography by GLA. Data is an input into process of modelling detailed 2021 flows and published here to allow results to be more easily reproduced.

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Author

GLA Demography

Maintainer

GLA Demography

Update Frequency

One off

Smallest Geography

Local Authority

Licence

UK Open Government Licence
(OGL v3)