The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales and nationally for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The datasets include summary workbooks for London boroughs and detailed component of change outputs for all model areas.
The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the Interim 2021-based variant projections (January 2023).
The 2021-based projections comprise three principal variants which have been produced using different assumptions about future levels of domestic and international migration. Variant projections have been produced in order to assist users in understanding current uncertainty about future population growth. A full explanation of the differences between these projections is available in the supporting documentation.
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