Trend-based population projections

* Update 21 August 2026 - the 2024-based projections are now available

Three 'core' variants of the trend-based population projections have been produced - central, high, low. These are intended to cover a reasonable range of possible outcomes and be suitable for use in common planning and policy activities.

central - principal fertility scenario, principal life expectancy scenario, migration patterns based on 13-years of past data
low - low fertility scenario, low life expectancy scenario, migration patterns based on 10-years of past data
high - high fertility scenario, high life expectancy scenario, migration patterns based on 15-years of past data

Excel output files are provided for the core variants include data for local authority districts and regions within England and Wales for the period mid-2001 to mid-2051:

population by single year of age, five-year age band, and commonly-used age groups
median age of the population
summary components of change
life expectancy at birth and age 65
total fertility rate and mean age of childbearing

Zip archives of detailed outputs are included for the core as well as several other sets of projection variants. The detailed outputs additionally include:

components of change by single year of age
age specific fertility rates
births by age of mother

The additional variant sets are intended to illustrate the effect of individual changes to the assumptions used for fertility, mortality, and migration.

The GLA recommends the use of the housing-led population projections as the default for most purposes, as they both capture the potential impacts of future housing delivery and are available at a finer spatial level (2021 Middle-layer Super Output Areas and 2022 electoral wards).

The 2024-based projections supersede previously published outputs.

*Update 29 May - an updated version of the draft 2024-based projections are now available. These include adjustments to the underlying estimates of population and international migration of children to address recently identified issues with the official series.

*Update 6 August - draft 2024-based projections are now available. Final versions of these projections are expected to be published early in 2026. More information about these can be found in this blog post .

18 files

gla_2024_trend_central.xlsx (53.96 MB)
central variant trend-based population projections for local authority districts in England and Wales
gla_2024_trend_low.xlsx (54.04 MB)
low variant trend-based population projections for local authority districts in England and Wales
gla_2024_trend_high.xlsx (53.90 MB)
high variant trend-based population projections for local authority districts in England and Wales
gla2024_trend_core_variants.zip (186.90 MB)
additional outputs for the core variants of the GLA 2024-based trend population projections
gla_2024_trend_fertility_variants.zip (571.17 MB)
additional fertility variants of the GLA 2024-based trend population projections
gla2024_trend_migration_variants.zip (358.24 MB)
additional migration variants of the GLA 2024-based trend population projections
gla2024_trend_mortality_variants.zip (189.36 MB)
additional mortality variants of the GLA 2024-based trend population projections
2022-based projection results.html (4.90 MB)
A report summarising the London-level results of the 2022-based projections.
2022-based projection: 10-year trend Central fertility (32.05 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
10-year period of past migration
Central fertility scenario
2022-based projection: 15-year trend High fertility (32.04 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
15-year period of past migration
High fertility scenario
2022-based projection: 5-year trend Low fertility (32.07 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
5-year period of past migration
Low fertility scenario
2022-based trend projections: detailed outputs (193.51 MB)
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2022-based projection variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales .
Warning: large file (198MB)
2021-based Interim Projections Results (10.20 MB)
A report summarising the results of the 2021-based projections.
2021-based projection: 15-year trend (2.84 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 15-year migration trend.
2021-based projection: 10-year trend (2.83 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 10-year migration trend.
2021-based projection: 5-year migration trend (2.82 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 5-year migration trend.
2021-based interim trend projections detailed outputs (updated 14-07-23).zip (194.29 MB)
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
These projections are based on the same model and configurations as those published in January 2023, but take an updated version of the modelled population backseries as inputs (https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/modelled-population-backseries). The new population backseries is the result of minor improvements to the modelling process that gives results that more closely fit with the official mid-2021 population estimates.
Warning: Large file (194MB).
2021-based interim trend projections detailed outputs (178.81 MB)
* 14 July 2023 - an updated version of these projections are now available
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Warning: Large file (178MB).