Created 4 years ago, updated 9 months ago

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales and nationally for Scotland and Northern Ireland. The datasets include summary workbooks for London boroughs and detailed component of change outputs for all model areas.

The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the Interim 2021-based variant projections (January 2023).

* 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs.

The 2021-based projections comprise three principal variants which have been produced using different assumptions about future levels of domestic and international migration. Variant projections have been produced in order to assist users in understanding current uncertainty about future population growth. A full explanation of the differences between these projections is available in the supporting documentation.

A report summarising the results of the 2021-based projections.

2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 15-year migration trend.

2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 10-year migration trend.

2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 5-year migration trend.

Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

These projections are based on the same model and configurations as those published in January 2023, but take an updated version of the modelled population backseries as inputs (https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/modelled-population-backseries). The new population backseries is the result of minor improvements to the modelling process that gives results that more closely fit with the official mid-2021 population estimates.

Warning: Large file (194MB).

* 14 July 2023 - an updated version of these projections are now available

Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Warning: Large file (178MB).