Created 2 years ago, updated 10 months ago

The trend-based population projections for London, which are produced by GLA Demography, estimate the future trajectory of London's population at local authority (borough) level.

The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2019-based variant projections which were released in November 2020.

The 2019-based projections comprise 4 principal variants which have been produced using different assumptions about future levels of domestic and international migration. Variant projections have been produced in order to assist users in understanding current uncertainty about future population growth. A full explanation of the differences between these projections is available from the methodology document provided below.

Additionally, the trend-based projections also project the future number of households at local authority level by converting the projected population into households. Different sets of trend-based Household projections have been created using both the 2014-based DCLG household projection model and the 2018-based ONS household model so that users can compare the results of using these two different methodologies.

For each set of trend-based projections, we publish the raw datasets alongside a report which analyses the key points arising from the new data and our guide to the projection methodology.

GLA Demography produces a variety of different types of population projections in order to meet the needs of a wide range of users. To see our full range of population projections, please visit our Population and household projections homepage.

Analysis of the 4 principal 2019-based projection variants for London

Analysis of the full range of 2019-based variant projections, scenario projections and sensitivity analysis

Overview of the trend model methodology and the modelling assumptions used in preparation of the 2019-based variant projections

Summary of the process and conclusions of the 2019-based projections advisory expert panel

A zip file containing detailed model outputs for all variants and scenarios. Note: large file size (1.05Gb)