Trend-based population projections

*Update 29 May - an updated version of the draft 2024-based projections are now available. These include adjustments to the underlying estimates of population and international migration of children to address recently identified issues with the official series.

*Update 6 August - draft 2024-based projections are now available. Final versions of these projections are expected to be published early in 2026. More information about these can be found in this blog post .

The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales.

The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex.

The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates.

Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here

* 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs.

11 files

2022-based projection results.html (4.90 MB)
A report summarising the London-level results of the 2022-based projections.
2022-based projection: 10-year trend Central fertility (32.05 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
10-year period of past migration
Central fertility scenario
2022-based projection: 15-year trend High fertility (32.04 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
15-year period of past migration
High fertility scenario
2022-based projection: 5-year trend Low fertility (32.07 MB)
2022-based trend population projections for local authority districts (2021 boundaries) in England and Wales.
Projection based on:
5-year period of past migration
Low fertility scenario
2022-based trend projections: detailed outputs (193.51 MB)
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2022-based projection variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales .
Warning: large file (198MB)
2021-based Interim Projections Results (10.20 MB)
A report summarising the results of the 2021-based projections.
2021-based projection: 15-year trend (2.84 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 15-year migration trend.
2021-based projection: 10-year trend (2.83 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 10-year migration trend.
2021-based projection: 5-year migration trend (2.82 MB)
2021-based Interim GLA trend population projections for London boroughs. 5-year migration trend.
2021-based interim trend projections detailed outputs (updated 14-07-23).zip (194.29 MB)
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
These projections are based on the same model and configurations as those published in January 2023, but take an updated version of the modelled population backseries as inputs (https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/modelled-population-backseries). The new population backseries is the result of minor improvements to the modelling process that gives results that more closely fit with the official mid-2021 population estimates.
Warning: Large file (194MB).
2021-based interim trend projections detailed outputs (178.81 MB)
* 14 July 2023 - an updated version of these projections are now available
Detailed population and components of population change for the three 2021-based interim projections variants. Contains outputs for all local authorities in England and Wales and national outputs for Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Warning: Large file (178MB).