Estimating births using GP registration data

Created 3 years ago, updated 3 years ago

A technical note and subsequent Update on the use of General Practitioner (GP) registration data to estimate the number of live births occurring in London.

The technical note presents analysis into the relationships between GP registration and birth estimates data, which indicates that GP registrations can be used to predict birth estimates with a good level of accuracy at local auhtority level.

Using the approach outlined in the note, a strong indication of births can be obtained up to eleven months ahead of the release of official data.  The note presents birth estimates for the year to mid-2015 based on analysis of GP registration data and explores the likely accuracy of such estimates.

Intelligence Unit Update 04-2016 compares the birth predictions made in the technical note with subsequently released official estimates.  The accuracy of the results is compared with that obtained from standard projection methodologies employed by the GLA and ONS.  

The Update presents estimates of births for the year to mid-2016 based upon recent GP registration data obtained by the GLA.

spreadsheet
Accompanying data used in charts and tables of the technical note
  Greater London   Local Authority   Ward
pdf
Technical note presenting analysis into the use of General Practitioner (GP) registration data to estimate the number of live births occurring in London.
  Greater London   Local Authority   Ward
spreadsheet
Accompanying data for Intelligence Unit Update 04-2016
  Greater London   Local Authority