Vaccinations in London
Between 8 December 2020 and 15 September 2021 5,838,305 1st doses and 5,232,885 2nd doses have been administered to London residents.
Differences in vaccine roll out between London and the Rest of England
| Priority Group | Vaccinations given | Percentage vaccinated | Vaccinations given | Percentage vaccinated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group 1 | ||||
| Older Adult Care Home Residents | 21,883 | 95% | 275,964 | 96% |
| Older Adult Care Home Staff | 29,405 | 85% | 381,637 | 88% |
| Group 2 | ||||
| 80+ years | 251,021 | 83% | 2,368,284 | 93% |
| Health Care Worker | 174,944 | 99% | 1,139,243 | 100%* |
| Group 3 | ||||
| 75 - 79 years | 177,665 | 90% | 1,796,408 | 99% |
| Group 4 | ||||
| 70 - 74 years | 252,609 | 90% | 2,454,381 | 97% |
| Clinically Extremely Vulnerable | 278,967 | 88% | 1,850,485 | 95% |
| Group 5 | ||||
| 65 - 69 years | 285,768 | 90% | 2,381,250 | 97% |
| Group 6 | ||||
| At Risk or Carer (Under 65) | 983,379 | 78% | 6,093,082 | 88% |
| Younger Adult Care Home Residents | 3,822 | 92% | 30,321 | 93% |
| Group 7 | ||||
| 60 - 64 years | 373,327 | 92% | 2,748,412 | 98% |
| Group 8 | ||||
| 55 - 59 years | 465,276 | 91% | 3,152,412 | 97% |
| Group 9 | ||||
| 50 - 54 years | 510,132 | 90% | 3,141,219 | 95% |
| Data as at 15 September 2021 for age based groups and as at 12 September 2021 for non-age based groups | ||||
| * The number who have received their first dose exceeds the latest official estimate of the population for this group | ||||
There is considerable uncertainty in the population denominators used to calculate the percentage vaccinated.
Comparing implied vaccination rates for multiple sources of denominators provides some indication of uncertainty in the true values. Confidence is higher where the results from multiple sources agree more closely. Because the denominator sources are not fully independent of one another, users should interpret the range of values across sources as indicating the minimum range of uncertainty in the true value.
The following datasets can be used to estimate vaccine uptake by age group for London:
- ONS 2020 mid-year estimates (MYE). This is the population estimate used for age groups throughout the rest of the analysis.
- Number of people ages 18 and over on the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS)
- ONS Public Health Data Asset (PHDA) dataset. This is a linked dataset combining the 2011 Census, the General Practice Extraction Service (GPES) data for pandemic planning and research and the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). This data covers a subset of the population.
Vaccine roll out in London by Ethnic Group
Understanding how vaccine uptake varies across different ethnic groups in London is complicated by two issues:
- Ethnicity information for recipients is unavailable for a very large number of the vaccinations that have been delivered. As a result, estimates of vaccine uptake by ethnic group are highly sensitive to the assumptions about and treatment of the Unknown group in calculations of rates.
For vaccinations given to people aged 50 and over in London nearly 10%
do not have ethnicity information available,
- The accuracy of available population denominators by ethnic group is limited. Because ethnicity information is not captured in official estimates of births, deaths, and migration, the available population denominators typically rely on projecting forward patterns captured in the 2011 Census. Subsequent changes to these patterns, particularly with respect to international migration, leads to increasing uncertainty in the accuracy of denominators sources as we move further away from 2011.
Comparing estimated population sizes and implied vaccination rates for multiple sources of denominators provides some indication of uncertainty in the true values. Confidence is higher where the results from multiple sources agree more closely. Because the denominator sources are not fully independent of one another, users should interpret the range of values across sources as indicating the minimum range of uncertainty in the true value.
The following population estimates are available by Ethnic group for London:
- GLA Ethnic group population projections - 2016 as at 2021
- ONS Population Denominators produced for Race Disparity Audit as at 2018
- ETHPOP population projections produced by the University of Leeds as at 2020
Antibody prevalence estimates
As part of the ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey ONS publish a modelled estimate of the percent of the adult population testing positive for antibodies to Coronavirus by region. Antibodies can be generated by vaccination or previous infection.
Vaccine effects on cases, hospitalisations and deaths
When the vaccine roll out began in December 2020 coronavirus cases, hospital admissions and deaths were rising steeply. The peak of infections came in London in early January 2021, before reducing during the national lockdown and as the vaccine roll out progressed. As the vaccine roll out began in older age groups the effect of vaccinations can be separated from the effect of national lockdown by comparing changes in cases, admissions and deaths in different age groups.
In early January, the vast majority of cases were in people aged under 65, however due to the age profile of coronavirus risk, there were more hospital admissions in people aged over 65, and the majority of deaths were also in this group.
To more easily compare the changes in cases, admissions and deaths between people aged over and under 65 we can transform the data to represent the number of cases, admissions and deaths as a percentage of the peak value for that age group.
Case, admission and death rates are now all at much lower rate than they were in the peak of the pandemic, making comparison of recent rates more difficult. By transforming to a log scale any differences between the groups while rates are low will become clearer.
The potential vaccine effect of reducing cases and admissions in older age groups prioritised for vaccination compared to younger age groups first appeared after a majority of the most vulnerable group, people aged 80+, were protected by a vaccine dose and has grown in size. As the vaccine coverage increases in younger age groups we'd expect the gap between age groups to reduce. In April and May 2020 deaths from coronavirus were very low in London which makes comparison between age groups difficult.
Waves compared
As restrictions were being lifted in Spring 2021 there has been a subsequent rise in infections in London, similarly to how they rose in September 2020 at the beginning of the second wave.
However, the rise in admissions and deaths in the third wave has been much less than that which followed in Autumn and Winter 2020.
Notes
Background
Following the approval of the Pfizer-Biontec vaccine by the MHRA on 2nd December 2020 the first doses were administered on the 8th December 2020. Since then two further vaccines have been approved and brought into use in the UK, the Oxford University/AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccines.
The JVCI set out the first 9 priority groups for vaccination:
- residents in a care home for older adults and their carers
- all those 80 years of age and over and frontline health and social care workers
- all those 75 years of age and over
- all those 70 years of age and over and clinically extremely vulnerable individuals
- all those 65 years of age and over
- all individuals aged 16 years to 64 years with underlying health conditions which put them at higher risk of serious disease and mortality (including residents in a care home for younger adults)
- all those 60 years of age and over
- all those 55 years of age and over
- all those 50 years of age and over
Under 50s were offered in age order after vaccine has been offered to all in the 9 priority groups.
On 31 December it was announced that vaccines would be administered with a 12 week gap between doses, an increase from the initial advise of a 4 week gap between doses.
Data Sources
NHS England
NHS England began publishing data on vaccinations administered on 31 December 2020, with a regional break down first included on 14 January 2021. These statistics include vaccinations administered across all settings in England (Hospital Hubs, Local Vaccination Service sites e.g. GP practices and Vaccination Centres). This data is as reported from the National Immunisation Management Service (NIMS), and is classified as management information. NIMS is the System of Record for the NHS COVID-19 vaccination programme in England. The current regional and sub-regional publications including details of:
- 1st and 2nd Doses
- Age bands with % uptake
- Ethnicity split
- Age bands split by administrative geographies (Middle-Layer Super Output Areas (MSOA), Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) and Parliamentary Constituency of residence)
- Residents and staff in Older adult care homes by NHS Region and Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) with % uptake
- Residents and staff in Younger adult care homes by NHS Region and UTLA with % uptake
- NHS Trust Healthcare workers (from the Electronic Staff Record)
- Clinically Extremely Vulnerable cohort (CEV) with % uptake
- Individuals identified as At Risk or a Carer (under 65 years) with % uptake
More age bands and groups have been added as they became eligible. This data is reported weekly.
PHE Coronavirus Dashboard
Vaccination data was first included on the PHE Coronavirus Dashboard on 24 December 2020, with a regional break down first included 18 May 2021. The dashboard reports vaccinations that were carried out in England as reported in the National Immunisation Management Service which is the system of record for the vaccination programme in England, including both hospital hubs and local vaccination services.
The data includes adults in 5 year age bands and is backdated to the start of the vaccine roll out. This data is reported daily.
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