Modelled estimates of annual live births by year ending date. Official birth estimates from ONS are considered very accurate, but the lag between the end of the period covered and the publication of estimates is typically 9-12 months. To gain a more timely indication of birth trends, the GLA Demography team produces modelled estimates of annual births...

*Update 29 May - an updated version of the draft 2024-based projections are now available. These include adjustments to the underlying estimates of population and international migration of children to address recently identified issues with the official series. *Update 6 August - draft 2024-based projections are now available. Final...

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely: The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021) Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model The modelled population backseries produced by...