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The Mayor of London The London Assembly

2014 Round Ethnic Population Projections

The GLA publishes annual ethnic group population projections for London boroughs to support the authority, its functional bodies and London boroughs in planning and policy decision making. This 2014 Round is the first to incorporate newly available ethnic migration rates and probabilities derived from moves captured by the 2011 Census.

Greater London’s White and BAME (Black, Asian, and Minority Ethnic) populations are both projected to grow between 2011 and 2041. Using the Capped Household Size, short-term migration scenario variant, over the period the White population is projected to increase by 570 thousand to 5.5 million, and the BAME population by 1.6 million to 4.9 million.

Thus for Greater London the BAME population is not projected to surpass the White population. However, the proportion of the population that is BAME in Outer London is projected to surpass the Inner London proportion in 2019 and to continue increasing to reach 49 per cent in 2041, whereas the Inner London proportion will tend to flatten out to reach 44 per cent in 2041.

All individual BAME ethnic groups are projected to grow over the period, except the Black Caribbean group which is projected to essentially remain flat.

The biggest individual BAME ethnic groups are projected to be the Indian, Other Asian, and Black African groups, reaching 813 thousand, 808 thousand, and 787 thousand respectively in 2041, after converging to around 715 thousand each in 2026.

The Capped Household Size, short-term migration scenario variant ethnic projections are summarised graphically in the chart below (Census-based populations in 1991, 2001 and 2011 are indicated by markers for clarity).

ethnic group proj chart

2014 Round ethnic projection population outputs and a more detailed description can be found in Intelligence Update 12-2015.

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