Modelled population backseries

These modelled annual population estimates were created for use the GLA's population projections.

They are intended to provide a consistent series of annual population and components of change between census years with all change accounted for by the standard components of change (births, deaths, and migration).

The official mid-year population estimates published by ONS are available here.

The original detailed internal migration data published by ONS is available here.

An overview of the general approach used to create these estimates is described in this presentation delivered at the 2022 BSPS conference.

* 17 April 2023 code for producing the modelled 2021 detailed internal migration flows is now available on Github

17 files

2002 to 2024 full_series_lad.rds (220.08 MB)
Jul 2001 – Jun 2024
Detailed annual migration flows by origin and destination from 2002 to 2024. Original data published by ONS. Pre-2012 data processed to consistent 2023 geography by GLA.
This file is in the .rds format native to R.
2001 to 2024 full_modelled_estimates_series_EW(2023_geog).rds (17.75 MB)
Jul 2001 – Jun 2024
Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2024 for local authority districts (2023 geography) in England and Wales.
These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2024-based population projections.
This file is in the .rds format native to R.
origin_destination_2002_2022_(2023_geog).rds (195.67 MB)
Detailed annual migration flows by origin and destination from 2002 to 2022. Original data published by ONS. Pre-2012 data processed to consistent 2023 geography by GLA.
This file is in the .rds format native to R.
gla_modelled_estimates_series_LAD_EW_2001_2022_(2021_geog)_wide.csv (33.41 MB)
Jun 2001 – Jun 2022
Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2022 for local authority districts (2021 geography) in England and Wales.
These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2022-based population projections.
gla_modelled_estimates_series_LAD_EW_2001_2023_(2023_geog)_wide.csv (33.58 MB)
Jun 2001 – Jun 2023
Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2023 for local authority districts (2023 geography) in England and Wales.
These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2023-based population projections.
full_modelled_estimates_series_EW(2023_geog).rds (16.94 MB)
Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2001 to mid-2023 for local authority districts (2023 geography) in England and Wales.
These estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2023-based population projections.
This file is in the .rds format native to R.
gla_modelled_estimates_series_WD22_London_2011_2022_wide.csv (87.08 MB)
Modelled estimates of population and annual components of change from mid-2011 to mid-2022 for electoral wards (2022 geography) in London.
The estimates were produced for use in the GLA 2022-based population projections.
modelled_backseries (updated 14-07-2023).csv (56.05 MB)
*18 July 2024 - estimates including more recent ONS mid-year estimates are now available
Modelled annual estimates of population from mid-2011 to mid-2021 for 2021 local authority districts and regions in England and Wales.
The estimates were produced for use in the GLA interim 2021-based population projections.
These are an updated version of the original series published in February 2023. The modelling process used for these updated estimates has been improved to give results that better align with the official 2021 mid-year population estimates.
modelled_backseries.csv (26.08 MB)
Jun 2011 – Jun 2021
*14 July 2023 - these have now been superseded
Modelled annual estimates of population from mid-2011 to mid-2021 for 2021 local authority districts and regions in England and Wales
origin_destination_lad_2012_2021.csv (558.48 MB)
Jul 2011 – Jun 2021
*Large file* Detailed annual internal migration flows by age, sex, origin and destination for years ending mid-2012 to mid-2021. Data up to year ending mid-2020 are based directly on the original estimates published by ONS. Data for the year ending mid-2021 is modelled by the GLA. These data are published on 2021 boundaries.
origin_destination_2002_to_2020_(2021_geog).rds (106.15 MB)
Jul 2001 – Jun 2020
Detailed annual migration flows by origin and destination from 2002 to 2020. Original data published by ONS. Series processed to consistent 2021 geography by GLA. Data is an input into process of modelling detailed 2021 flows and published here to allow results to be more easily reproduced.
mye_1991_2000_nomis.rds (1.42 MB)
Annual population estimates for local authority districts from 1991 to 2000. Data are mid-year population estimates produced by ONS and published on NOMIS. This file is in the .rds format native to R.
population_msoa11_2010_to_2011.rds (11.66 MB)
Small area (MSOA 2011) population estimates for 2010 and 2011. Used as an input into the small area population backseries.
The file is in the .rds format native to R.
population_lsoa11_2010_to_2011.rds (60.42 MB)
Small area (LSOA 2011) population estimates for 2010 and 2011. Used as an input into the small area population backseries.
The file is in the .rds format native to R.
population_msoa11_2010_to_2011.csv (123.84 MB)
population_lsoa11_2010_to_2011.csv (711.24 MB)
resident_pupils_lea_ncy_2011_2019_from_cbm.csv (610.22 kB)
Location-based pupil population data. Used as an input to the process of adjusting the backseries to account for inaccuracies in estimates of young children.