Household projections

Projected numbers of household by type, and characteristics of representative persons consistent with the GLA trend-based population projections.

These supersede the draft 2024-based household projections that were included in the 2026 London Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). The same methodology is used in the final projections, with the only changes being updates to the population projections on which they are based and the inclusion of additional communal establishment population scenarios. Background to the methods and scenarios included in the projections can be found in the May 2025 technical note.

Multiple variants of household projection are included in these outputs, based on combinations of scenarios of future population, household representative rate, and communal establishment population.

Population scenarios:

• central, high, low variants of the GLA 2024-based trend projections

Household representative rate scenarios:

• 10yr_return_2001 - return to past levels of household formation over 10 years. Rates for each household type, and age group and sex of representative person return to at least the same levels as they were in 2001 over a 10-year period (2026 to 2036).

• 20yr_return_2001 - return to past levels of household formation over 20 years. Rates for each household type, and age group and sex of representative person return to at least the same levels as they were in 2001 over a 20-year period (2026 to 2046).

• constant_2021 - rates held at levels captured in the 2021 census for the duration of the projection period.

• exp_2001_21 - continuation of past trends. Generated using the same two-point exponential method employed by ONS in the 2018-based subnational household projections, but updated to incorporate the results of the 2021 census. Trends are based on the period 2001 to 2021 and rates are projected forward 20 years to 2041, before being held constant.

Communal establishment population scenario:

• constant_number - number of persons resident in communal establishments assumed to remain fixed at 2021 levels for all age groups.

• constant_rate_75over - number of persons resident in communal establishments assumed to remain fixed at 2021 levels up to age 74. For older age groups, the proportion of the population resident in communal establishments is assumed to remain constant.