Household projection data for modelling
The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2024-based projections.
**Update 08-08-2025** Household projections incorporating the GLA's draft 2024-based population projections have been added to the page.
**Update 27-06-2025** A technical note providing an overiew of the work to date and draft results has been added to the page. The draft projections and model inputs discussed in the note are also available to download.
Outputs from the GLA Interim 2023-based and draft 2024-based population projections are available here.
This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses.
Inputs:
- Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type.
- Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type
Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website.
Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme.
For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk
2024_based_household_projections.zip (98.79 MB)Draft household projections produced as part of the development of the draft 2024-based projections.
These projections are considered research outputs.
Archive includes multiple projections based on different combinations of:
population projection variant
methodology for projecting future Household Representative Rates (HRR)
Archives containing these population and HRR inputs are available to download separately from this page.
- 2024_based_household_representative_rates.zip (30.74 MB)
Estimated and projected Household Representative Rates (HRR) produced as part of the development of the draft 2024-based projections.
Includes rates projected using several different methodologies:
hrr_2pt_exp_2001_21.csv - projected using a 2-point exponential model based on estimated rates for 2001 and 2021
hrr_const_2021.csv - rates held constant at estimated 2021 levels
hrr_10yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2036
hrr_20yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2046
- 2024_based_population_projections.zip (13.15 MB)
Estimated and projected population by residence type (private household or communal establishment) produced as part of the development of the draft 2024-based projections.
Data are based on the GLA draft 2024-based population projections and includes three variants:
2024_ppt_10yr.csv - Principal Fertility/Principal Life Expectancy/10-year migration (PPT-10yr)
2024_hht_15yr.csv - High Fertility/High Life Expectancy/15-year migration (HHT-15yr)
2024_llt_5yr.csv - Low Fertility/Low Life Expectancy/5-year migration (LLT-5yr)
- 2023_based_household_projections.zip (98.85 MB)
Draft household projections produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.
These projections are considered research outputs.
Archive includes multiple projections based on different combinations of:
population projection variant
methodology for projecting future Household Representative Rates (HRR)
Archives containing these population and HRR inputs are available to download separately from this page.
- 2023_based_population_projections.zip (13.15 MB)
Estimated and projected population by residence type (private household or communal establishment) produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.
Data are based on the GLA Interim 2023-based population projections and includes three variants:
2023_ppt_10yr.csv - Principal Fertility/Principal Life Expectancy/10-year migration (PPT-10yr)
2023_hht_15yr.csv - High Fertility/High Life Expectancy/15-year migration (HHT-15yr)
2023_llt_5yr.csv - Low Fertility/Low Life Expectancy/5-year migration (LLT-5yr)
- 2023_based_household_representative_rates.zip (30.75 MB)
Estimated and projected Household Representative Rates (HRR) produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.
Includes rates projected using several different methodologies:
hrr_2pt_exp_2001_21.csv - projected using a 2-point exponential model based on estimated rates for 2001 and 2021
hrr_const_2021.csv - rates held constant at estimated 2021 levels
hrr_10yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2036
hrr_20yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2046
ct13082011census.xlsx (1020.26 kB)2011 Census commissioned table CT1308 - Sex by age of Household Reference Person (HRP) by bespoke household composition
Produced by ONS and published here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/adhocs/2283ct13082011census
- ct210324census2021.xlsx (1010.96 kB)
2021 Census commissioned table CT21_0324 - Sex by age of Household Reference Person (HRP) by bespoke household family composition
Produced by ONS and published here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/adhocs/2282ct210324census2021
ST001_2001_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv (10.65 MB)2001 Census table ST001 - Age by sex and resident type
Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/st001
- DC1104EW_2011_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv (11.32 MB)
2011 Census table DC1104EW - Residence type by sex by age
Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/dc1104ew
- RM120_2021_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv (11.58 MB)
2021 Census table RM210 - Residence type by sex by age
Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/c2021rm120
