The latest data showed little substantial change as London’s labour market recovery continues to slow.
The number of payrolled employees rose slightly on the month and is now 3.1% higher than the pre-pandemic peak. The employment and inactivity rates are virtually unchanged on the quarter.
The unemployment rate rose slightly on the quarter, while the claimant count rate also appears to be on the rise.
While the inflation rate fell slightly and employee nominal wage growth remained strong, year-on-year real pay is down 1.5%.
The most timely estimate of payrolled employees shows an increase of around 7,010, or 0.2%, in London between November and December 2022 and an increase of 3.6% on the year.
The employment rate in London was estimated at 75.2% for the three months ending November 2022, up 0.1 percentage points (pp) on the previous quarter and down 0.4pp on the same period in the previous year. London’s employment rate was lower than the UK average (75.6%).
The unemployment rate was still higher than the UK average. London’s unemployment rate was estimated at 4.3%, up 0.3pp on the quarter and down 1.0pp from a year earlier. The UK average was 3.7%.
London’s inactivity rate (the measure of those not looking and/or not available to work) was estimated at 21.6%. This was down 0.1pp on the previous quarter and up 1.4pp on the previous year, and is similar to the UK-wide estimate of 21.5%.
The count of payrolled employees from HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) RTI dataset offers a timely measure of labour market trends:
Early estimates indicate that there were around 4.3 million payrolled employees living in London in December 2022, an increase of around 7,010, or 0.2%, on the previous month.
The latest London estimate represents an increase of 151,000, or 3.6%, on the previous year (December 2021) against a UK average increase of 2.3% (see charts).
Relative to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels, the number of payrolled employees in London was up by 129,000, or 3.1%. This compares to an increase of 3.1% across the UK on average.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
The RTI dataset also provides information on the nominal monthly pay of payrolled employees living in London. This can be adjusted for inflation to estimate real pay over time.
CPIH (consumer price inflation including owner-occupiers’ housing costs) is a national measure and does not account for region-specific price changes.
The median pay is an average which measures the middle point in the range of recorded monthly employee salaries.
In December 2022:
Median monthly pay in London was £2,640, an increase of 7.4% on the year.
In the UK overall, median pay was £2,190, up by 7.8% on the year.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Growth in real wages can be estimated by adjusting nominal pay for the rate of inflation, here CPIH.
In November 2022, the latest month for which CPIH inflation data is available:
The year-on-year CPIH rate in the UK was 9.3%.
Nominal employee pay was up by 7.7% on the year in London, resulting in a decrease of 1.5% in real pay on the year.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, ONS.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line. Inflation measure does not account for region-specific price changes. Sign of inflation rates has been reversed (higher inflation rates are associated with lower real pay growth).
The tabs below are each updated once per quarter, as new data is released by the ONS/HMRC.
Recent changes in the number of payrolled employees vary by age group. Comparing December 2022 to levels the previous year:
The number of payrolled employees “Aged: 50-64” in London was up by 3.0%, while the number of employees “Aged: 35-49” was up by 1.7%.
For the UK overall, the number of payrolled employees in those two age groups saw an increase of 2.0% and an increase of 2.1%, respectively.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
Comparing October 2022 to levels the previous year:
Hospitality saw the highest percentage growth in payrolled employees at 12.8%, followed by Arts & recreation (7.7%) and Administration (7.0%).
On the other hand, Construction saw the lowest percentage growth with a decrease of 2.2%, followed by Public admin & defence (down by 1.5%) and Transport & storage (down by 0.6%).
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live. Excludes sectors with fewer than 25,000 payrolled employees in London.
Employment measures the number of people aged 16 and over in paid work and those who had a job that they were temporarily away from. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.
For September to November 2022:
The 16-64 employment rate in London was estimated at 75.2%; this represents an increase of 0.1 percentage points (pp) on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.4pp from a year earlier.
The overall UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6%, unchanged on the quarter and an increase of 0.2pp on the year.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is +/- 1.6% for London and +/- 0.4% for the UK. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error ranges from +/- 1.6% to +/- 2.6% across regions.
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed.
For September to November 2022:
The unemployment rate for London was estimated at 4.3%; this represents an increase of 0.3pp on the previous quarter and a decrease of 1.0pp from a year earlier.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.7%, an increase of 0.2pp from the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.4pp on the year.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is +/- 0.8% for London and +/- 0.2% for the UK. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error ranges from +/- 0.6% to +/- 1.3% across regions
The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of 16 to 64 year olds not in work and either not looking for or unable to work. This group includes some students, people who are looking after family/home, and people who are too ill to work (most of whom are long-term sick).
For September to November 2022:
The rate of economic inactivity in London was estimated at 21.6%; this represents a decrease of 0.1pp on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.4pp from a year earlier.
The UK rate of economic inactivity was 21.5%; this represents a decrease of 0.1pp on the previous quarter and an increase of 0.2pp on the year.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is not published for London, the UK margin is +/- 0.5%. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is not published for regions.
The claimant count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. It includes people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and those claiming Universal Credit who are required to seek work.
The latest data for December 2022 show that:
There were 293,000 people claiming unemployment-related benefits in London - equal to a claimant unemployment rate (as a proportion of residents aged 16 to 64) of 4.8%.
The number of claimants in London has decreased by 58,800, or 16.7%, on the year, compared to a decrease of 302,000, or 16.2%, in the UK overall.
Source: ONS Claimant Count by sex and age (seasonally adjusted).
Note: may include some employed claimants on low hours or earnings. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Source: ONS Claimant Count by sex and age (not seasonally adjusted).
Note: may include some employed claimants on low hours or earnings.
Headline estimates for Sep 2022-Nov 2022 | Number* (thousands) | Rate** (%) | ||||||||
Latest Estimate | Change on Quarter | Change on Year | Latest Estimate | Change on Quarter | Change on Year | |||||
Employment | ||||||||||
London | 4,784 | -7 | u | -15 | u | 75.2 | 0.1 | t | -0.4 | u |
England | 27,740 | 0 | u | 160 | t | 75.8 | -0.1 | u | 0.1 | t |
UK | 32,781 | 27 | t | 219 | t | 75.6 | 0.0 | v | 0.2 | t |
Unemployment | ||||||||||
London | 215 | 14 | t | -55 | u | 4.3 | 0.3 | t | -1.0 | u |
England | 1,076 | 56 | t | -123 | u | 3.7 | 0.2 | t | -0.4 | u |
UK | 1,244 | 56 | t | -138 | u | 3.7 | 0.2 | t | -0.4 | u |
Economic Inactivity | ||||||||||
London | 1,329 | -5 | u | 92 | t | 21.6 | -0.1 | u | 1.4 | t |
England | 7,419 | -29 | u | 132 | t | 21.2 | -0.1 | u | 0.3 | t |
UK | 8,945 | -55 | u | 111 | t | 21.5 | -0.1 | u | 0.2 | t |
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey. | ||||||||||
The ONS has published its latest labour market update covering Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for the three months ending November 2022 and real-time information (RTI) data up to December 2022. This bulletin presents the latest headline labour market estimates for London.
Please note:
Many of the statistics presented here are estimates based on surveys, and as such have a margin of error – known as sampling variability.
They also cover different reference periods or count dates.
More information and previous GLA Economics analyses can be found on our labour market analysis page.
More information on the data used and a glossary of terms can be found on the ONS website.