London Labour Market Update
Guillaume Paugam, April 2024
The latest labour market data for London remains volatile and ONS
warns that estimates of changes should be treated with caution.
These estimates show that the inactivity and unemployment rates have
been falling – both on the quarter and the year – while the employment
rate has been rising.
At the same time, however, the claimant
count (a measure of those claiming unemployment-related benefits) has
continued to slowly rise over recent months, and the number of payrolled
employees has drifted slightly lower.
Changes to the way that
the ONS collects data for employment, unemployment, and inactivity –
made because sample sizes were becoming unreliable – are one possible
reason for the sharp swings in labour market data based on survey
measures. As data collection improvements feed into published results,
there is a possibility of further revisions.
Summary of key points
The most timely estimate of payrolled employees (subject to revision) shows a decrease of around 18,100, or 0.4%, in London between February and March 2024 and an increase of 0.4% on the year.
The employment rate in London was estimated at 75.3% for the three months ending February 2024, up 1.2 percentage points (pp) on the previous quarter and up 1.2pp on the same period in the previous year. London’s employment rate was higher than the UK average (74.5%).
The unemployment rate was slightly higher than UK average. London’s unemployment rate was estimated at 4.4%, down 0.1pp on the quarter and down 0.6pp from a year earlier. The UK average was 4.2%.
London’s inactivity rate (the measure of those not looking and/or not available to work) was estimated at 21.4%. This was down 1.0pp on the previous quarter and down 0.6pp on the previous year, and was lower than the UK-wide estimate of 22.2%.
Payrolled employees
The count of payrolled employees from HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) RTI dataset offers a timely measure of labour market trends:
Early estimates indicate that there were around 4.4 million payrolled employees living in London in March 2024, a decrease of around 18,100, or 0.4%, on the previous month.
The latest London estimate represents an increase of 17,600, or 0.4%, on the previous year (March 2023) against a UK average increase of 0.7% (see charts).
Relative to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels, the number of payrolled employees in London was up by 198,000, or 4.8%. This compares to an increase of 4.3% across the UK on average.
The figures for March 2024 in the RTI dataset are provided to give an indication of the likely level of employees as well as median pay in the latest period. They are of lower quality and may be subject to significant revision in future releases.
Number of payrolled employees
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Change on previous year, regions
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
Employee pay and inflation
The RTI dataset also provides information on the nominal monthly pay of payrolled employees living in London. This can be adjusted for inflation to estimate real pay over time.
CPIH (consumer price inflation including owner-occupiers’ housing costs) is a national measure and does not account for region-specific price changes.
Median monthly pay
The median pay is an average which measures the middle point in the range of recorded monthly employee salaries.
In March 2024:
Median monthly pay in London was £2,780, an increase of 4.4% on the year.
In the UK overall, median pay was £2,340, up by 5.6% on the year.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Pay by region
The change in median nominal salary on the year varies between the regions and countries of the UK.
From March 2023 to March 2024:
The region/country with the highest growth in median monthly salary was North East at 6.7%.
The region/country with the lowest growth in median monthly salary was Northern Ireland at 2.3%.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
Annual real pay growth
Growth in real wages can be estimated by adjusting nominal pay for the rate of inflation, here CPIH.
In February 2024, the latest month for which CPIH inflation data is available:
The year-on-year CPIH rate in the UK was 3.8%.
Nominal employee pay was up by 5.0% on the year in London, resulting in an increase of 1.1% in real pay on the year.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information,
ONS.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line. Inflation measure
does not account for region-specific price changes. Sign of inflation
rates has been reversed (higher inflation rates are associated with
lower real pay growth). Inflation data is released after pay data and is
not available for the most recent month.
Annualised growth rates
Annual growth rates are a backwards-looking measure that indicate the cumulative impact of changes over the previous year. This is an important measure that shows how much wages, or prices have changed in total over the last year.
However, it is also important to understand how fast things are changing at the present time. To do this we show annualised growth rates that measure how fast prices and pay have changed over the last three months.
Using the three-month period December 2023 to February 2024, we estimate the annualised growth rate of real pay in London to be 2.3%.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time Information,
ONS.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line. Inflation measure
does not account for region-specific price changes.
Additional payrolled employee statistics
The tabs below are each updated once per quarter, as new data is released by the ONS/HMRC.
Change by age group
Recent changes in the number of payrolled employees vary by age group. Comparing March 2024 to levels the previous year:
The number of payrolled employees “Aged: 50-64” in London was up by 0.7%, while the number of employees “Aged: 18-24” was down by 3.0%.
For the UK overall, payrolled employee numbers in those two age groups increased by 0.3% and decreased by 1.1%, respectively.
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
Change by industry
Comparing January 2024 to levels the previous year:
Health saw the highest percentage growth in payrolled employees at 6.1%, followed by Education (3.8%) and Arts & recreation (3.7%).
On the other hand, Information & communication saw the lowest percentage growth with a decrease of 3.6%, followed by Construction (down by 0.3%) and Retail (down by 0.3%).
Source: HM Revenue and Customs – Pay As You Earn Real Time
Information.
Note: Estimates are based on where employees live.
Excludes sectors with fewer than 25,000 payrolled employees in London.
Employment rate
Employment measures the number of people aged 16 and over in paid work and those who had a job that they were temporarily away from. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.
For December to February 2024:
The 16-64 employment rate in London was estimated at 75.3%; this represents an increase of 1.2 percentage points (pp) on the previous quarter and an increase of 1.2pp from a year earlier.
The overall UK employment rate was estimated at 74.5%, a decrease of 0.5pp on the quarter and a decrease of 0.8pp on the year.
London and UK rates
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is
±1.9% for London and ±0.6% for the UK. The LFS has been reweigted from
July to September 2022 onwards. September 2022 indicated by dotted line.
Regional comparison
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error ranges
from ±1.6% to ± 3.4% across regions.
Unemployment rate
Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is the proportion of the economically active population who are unemployed.
For December to February 2024:
The unemployment rate for London was estimated at 4.4%; this represents a decrease of 0.1pp on the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.6pp from a year earlier.
The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 4.2%, an increase of 0.3pp from the previous quarter and on the year.
London and UK rates
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is
±1.1% for London and ±0.3% for the UK. The LFS has been reweigted from
July to September 2022 onwards. September 2022 indicated by dotted line.
Regional comparison
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error ranges
from ±0.8% to ±1.7% across regions.
Economic inactivity rate
The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of 16 to 64 year olds not in work and either not looking for or unable to work. This group includes some students, people who are looking after family/home, and people who are too ill to work (most of whom are long-term sick).
For December to February 2024:
The rate of economic inactivity in London was estimated at 21.4%, 1pp down from the previous quarter and a decrease of 0.6pp from a year earlier.
The UK rate of economic inactivity was 22.2%; this represents an increase of 0.3pp on the previous quarter and an increase of 0.6pp on the year.
London and UK rates
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is not
published for London, the UK margin is ±0.3%. The LFS has been reweigted
from July to September 2022 onwards. September 2022 indicated by dotted
line.
Regional comparison
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: The margin of error is not
published for regions.
Claimant count
The claimant count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. It includes people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance and those claiming Universal Credit who are required to seek work.
The latest data for March 2024 show that:
There were 310,000 people claiming unemployment-related benefits in London - equal to a claimant unemployment rate (as a proportion of residents aged 16 to 64) of 5.1%.
The number of claimants in London has increased by 27,200, or 9.6%, on the year, compared to an increase of 57,400, or 3.8%, in the UK overall.
Rate of residents aged 16-64
Source: ONS Claimant Count by sex and age (seasonally
adjusted).
Note: may include some employed claimants on low hours
or earnings. September 2022 indicated by dotted line.
Year-on-year percentage change
Source: ONS Claimant Count by sex and age (not seasonally
adjusted).
Note: may include some employed claimants on low hours
or earnings.
Summary of headline indicators
Headline estimates for Dec 2023-Feb 2024 | Number* (thousands) | Rate** (%) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Latest Estimate | Change on Quarter | Change on Year | Latest Estimate | Change on Quarter | Change on Year | |||||
Employment | ||||||||||
London | 4,757 | 73 | t | 63 | t | 75.3 | 1.2 | t | 1.2 | t |
England | 28,053 | -142 | u | -150 | u | 74.9 | -0.6 | u | -0.7 | u |
UK | 32,980 | -156 | u | -195 | u | 74.5 | -0.5 | u | -0.8 | u |
Unemployment | ||||||||||
London | 217 | -2 | u | -28 | u | 4.4 | -0.1 | u | -0.6 | u |
England | 1,254 | 93 | t | 71 | t | 4.3 | 0.3 | t | 0.3 | t |
UK | 1,440 | 85 | t | 94 | t | 4.2 | 0.3 | t | 0.3 | t |
Economic Inactivity | ||||||||||
London | 1,307 | -61 | u | -29 | u | 21.4 | -1.0 | u | -0.6 | u |
England | 7,778 | 129 | t | 223 | t | 21.7 | 0.3 | t | 0.5 | t |
UK | 9,404 | 150 | t | 275 | t | 22.2 | 0.3 | t | 0.6 | t |
Source: ONS Labour Force Survey. | ||||||||||
Measuring the labour market
The ONS has published its latest labour market update covering Labour Force Survey (LFS) data for the three months ending February 2024 and real-time information (RTI) data up to March 2024. This bulletin presents the latest headline labour market estimates for London.
Please note:
Many of the statistics presented here are estimates based on surveys, and as such have a margin of error – known as sampling variability.
They also cover different reference periods or count dates.
More information and previous GLA Economics analyses can be found on our labour market analysis page.
More information on the data used and a glossary of terms can be found on the ONS website.