London pubs audit
Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, January 2023
Notes on the data
The data in this note is drawn from the ONS Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR), a list of UK businesses which is mainly compiled from administrative sources.
Businesses are classified by their primary trading activity only. At this level of detail there is a risk that some pubs and bars are classified under a related industry (e.g. hotels). This means that the numbers in this note could differ from those reported elsewhere, such as from the British Beer and Pubs Association or the Campaign for Real Ale.
The data is taken from the IDBR on March 12 of each year with 2022 being the latest year available. This means that it is not yet possible to see the full impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on pubs* in London.
The estimates for the number of pubs and employees have been rounded, and employee numbers are generally averaged across the year. Caution should therefore be taken when interpreting the data in this note, particularly year-on-year changes. Extra care should be taken with percentage changes.
Summary of key points
The overall number of pubs has remained largely unchanged since 2017, making it difficult to see an effect of the post-pandemic period.
Overall employee numbers have fallen from the 2020 peak and the trend towards larger pubs (with more than 10 employees) appears to have stalled. However, the share of smaller pubs reached its highest since 2015.
Among local authorities, 9 recorded a decrease in pub numbers, 12 recorded an increase and the rest saw no significant change.
The long-term trends remain the same as reported in the previous iteration of this analysis:
Overall, pub numbers have declined over the past twenty years in most London boroughs and in the capital overall but employment has increased as the average pub has become larger.
While the decline in pub numbers reflected an overall UK trend, the number of employees increased by more in London (12%) than the UK average (3%).
Trends in London
First growth in small pub numbers since 2002
The overall number of pubs in London has been steadily falling over the past twenty years, from around 5,000 in 2001 to around 2,600 in 2022. Despite this, the number of large pubs with more than 10 employees had been increasing - they accounted for less than a third of all pubs in 2001 but that share had grown to just over half last year..
But the latest data shows the first increase in the number of smaller pubs since 2002, from around 1,720 pubs in 2021 to around 1,800 in 2022. This is the largest number of small pubs since 2015. Smaller pubs even outnumbered larger pubs, which fell from around 1,840 to 1,770 in the year.
This reversal in trend has not had an impact on the median number of employees in London pubs, which remained at 10 employees per pub in 2022.
The overall number of employees in London pubs nevertheless decreased between 2020 and 2022 as the number of people working in larger pubs decreased from around 41,000 to around 39,000, while the number working in smaller pubs remained steady at 8,000.
Number of pubs
The overall number of pubs in London remained unchanged from 2020 to 2022, despite the effects of the pandemic. This suggests that support schemes offered by the UK government during the pandemic helped keep numbers stable.
However, new challenges have appeared for many UK businesses, including pubs, since March 2022. Inflation has been rising across 2022, reaching 9.6% in October, and energy costs have become an increasingly larger concern for many pubs.
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Median number of employees
The median is an average which measures the middle point in a range of pub sizes by employee count.
As larger pubs increasingly became more relatively more common, the median number of employees increased from six in 2001-2008 to 10 in 2015-2022. The increase in the share of smaller pubs in 2022 has not changed this figure.
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Median counts are rounded to nearest unit.
Number of employees
The total number of employees in London’s pub sector was 47,000 in 2022, a decrease of -2.1% from the peak of 48,000 in 2020.
The share of employees working in smaller pubs (with fewer than 10 employees) increased from 16% in 2020 to 17% in 2022.
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Comparison with the UK
Pubs in London fared marginally better than UK average
The number of pubs in the UK overall decreased between 2020 and 2022 from 38,870 to 38,220 (-1.7%). The count was even lower in 2021 at 37,840.
The decline in the overall UK industry from 2020 to 2022 in terms of employee numbers (-1.9%) was similar to the rate of decline in London (-2.1%).
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Changes by London borough
Most boroughs have seen a decline in pubs numbers over the longer term, but recent trends are more mixed
Changes in 2020-2022
While the onset of lockdowns had a relatively small short-term impact on London pubs overall, changes by local authority varied by a much higher degree.
Keeping in mind that short-term changes should be considered as approximate, from 2020 to 2022:
9 local authorities saw a decrease in the number of pubs, while 12 saw an increase. The largest decrease was in Sutton (-10%), despite simultaneously experiencing substantial growth in employee numbers (17%). The largest increase in pub numbers by far was in Waltham Forest (+38%).
The number of employees decreased in 6 local authorities, while it increased in 11 local authorities. The largest decrease was in City of London (-25%) while the largest increase was in Newham (+33%).
The borough with the largest number of pubs in 2022 was Westminster, with around 425 pubs (of which 235 had 10 or more employees). Westminster experienced a 2% decrease in the number of pubs and a 14% decrease in the number of employees from 2020 to 2022.
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Changes in 2017-2022
Across the most recent five-year period (2017-2022):
- 11 local authorities saw a decrease in the number of pubs, while 12 saw an increase. The largest decrease was in Sutton (-18%), while the largest increase in pub numbers was in Lewisham (+43%).
- The number of employees decreased in 7 local authorities, while it increased in 14 local authorities. The largest decreases were in Bromley and Kensington & Chealsea (-17%) while the largest increase was in Lewisham (+79%).
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Long-term changes
Across the two decades from 2001 to 2022:
Hackney was the only local authority to experience an increase in the number of pubs. The other 32 saw a decrease in pubs numbers.
The number of pubs in Hackney increased from 155 to 205 (+32%) during this time. The largest percentage decrease in pubs was in Barking and Dagenham, where the count decreased from 45 in 2001 to 20 in 2021 (-56%).
Over the same period, the number of employees working in pubs decreased in 12 London authorities, while it increased in 14 authorities.
Hackney also had the largest growth in pubs employees from 700 to 2,000 (+186%). Barking and Dagenham saw the largest percentage decrease in employees from 500 in 2001 to 225 in 2021 (-55%).
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Mapping the pubs industry
Central boroughs have outperformed outer boroughs
The maps below show how the number of pubs and pubs employees within local authorities in London has changed over the past twenty years.
The decrease in the number of pubs is particularly clear in some outer London boroughs. In the north east, for example, the combined number of pubs in Newham, Waltham Forest and Redbridge halved from around 260 in 2001 to around 120 in 2022.
In contrast, the number of employees working in pubs increased substantially in inner London boroughs such as Islington, Hackney and Southwark.
London in 2001
London in 2012
London in 2017
London in 2022
Pub counts at MSOA level
Pub numbers are increasingly concentrated in a few local areas
Pub counts are also available for middle layer super output areas (MSOA), which are subdivisions of local authorities. It’s worth noting that the number of pubs in many local areas is too small to be registered precisely at this level (white shading indicates areas where the count of pubs is betweeen 0-3).
Nevertheless, the decline in pubs numbers from 2001 to 2022 is visible as the map below appears increasingly empty over recent decades. The local authority-level picture is repeated here as pub numbers have been more stable (or even increased) in a few MSOAs in central London while many areas outside of central London have seen a decline.
Pub counts at the granular MSOA level are generally too low for precise estimates. For instance, an area with 2 pubs would be shown to have 0-3 pubs here.
MSOA 2001
Source: IDBR, ONS. Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights [2015].
Note: Data is as was recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
MSOA 2012
Source: IDBR, ONS. Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights [2015].
Note: Data is as was recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
MSOA 2017
Source: IDBR, ONS. Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights [2015].
Note: Data is as was recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
MSOA 2022
Source: IDBR, ONS. Contains Ordnance Survey data Crown copyright and database rights [2015].
Note: Data is as was recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Data tables
The tables below provide detailed breakdowns of the pubs data for each London local authority.
Pub counts
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Employee counts
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.
Employee median
Source: IDBR, ONS.
Note: Data is as recorded on March 12th of each year. Pub counts are rounded to nearest 5, employee counts to nearest range band.