Online Job Postings - Quarterly
Update
Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, July 2023
The demand for workers in London has stabilised, according to the
latest online job postings data. The overall number of job postings has
been flat since September 2022, a trend which is also reflected in
postings for many broad occupation groups.
The levelling-off of
demand has occurred alongside an increase in labour supply, where data
is showing a rise in the number of people who are moving into work or
starting to look for jobs. These trends combined suggest that the labour
market is cooling as it moves away from the uncertainty and volatile
conditions following the pandemic.
Nevertheless, advertised
salaries continued to rise for certain occupation groups. Caring &
leisure occupations saw 17% growth on the year, while advertised
salaries for Elementary occupations were up 8% in the first half of 2023
alone.
For more analysis on London’s labour market, see our
recent Labour
Market Update.
Introduction
This update is based on online job postings data provided by Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass). It looks at online postings for jobs in London, including detail on information within postings (e.g. occupations, salary level and job location).
The number of online job postings is an indicator of the demand for labour, as well as the quality of skills matches in the labour market. Used together with traditional sources, it can (for example) be used to help to support the planning and delivery of skills provision and careers information, advice and guidance.
The number of online job postings is presented as unique, deduplicated monthly postings. However, online job postings data is subject to revision and not all jobs adverts are posted online. It is unlikely to present the full picture for job openings in London. For more information see: Understanding online job postings data.
More data on London’s labour market can be found on the London Datastore.
Total online job postings
The chart below shows the number of unique online postings for jobs in London. Given the volatility associated with single-month estimates, the three-month average estimates are likely to provide a more reliable indication of short-term changes in the demand for labour.
The three-month average number of online postings climbed rapidly in early 2022 to reach 177,000 in the three months to June 2022.
The number of online job postings then decreased rapidly over the summer of 2022 before evening out. The level has remained stable since and there were 135,000 online postings for jobs in London in June 2023 (single-month estimate).
The level remained far higher than the post-COVID-19 low of 47,700 recorded in April 2020 and was also higher than the long-term average of 123,000 in the period from 2012 to 2016.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020
indicated by dotted line.
Comparison of data providers
Trends in online job postings from Lightcast correlate well with similar data published by Indeed and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), but less so with an ONS series using data from Textkernel*.
Data from each of these sources show a very sharp drop in job posting levels just after the start of the pandemic in March 2020, though Textkernel data indicated the smallest decrease at 15%.
The decline was followed by a gradual increase in job postings estimates using data from Indeed, Adzuna, and Lightcast, though the latter series show a series of peaks and troughs. Estimates using Textkernel data suggest the number of job postings tripled by December 2021 before starting a steep decline throughout 2022.
The level of job postings has not seen large fluctuations in any of the up-to-date series since the end of 2022, though the Indeed index dropped from 138 in December to 102 in June. The Lightcast index has been the highest among the timely series throughout 2023.
Source: Lightcast (monthly online job postings, non-seasonally
adjusted), Indeed (average of daily online job postings), ONS (average
of weekly online job adverts from Adzuna, non-seasonally adjusted; and
Textkernel online job postings).
Note: March 2020 indicated by
dotted line.
Vacancies and unemployment
Comparing the level of job vacancies (or online job postings) with unemployment can be used to assess the status of the labour market. It is said to be ‘tight’ if vacant jobs are plentiful and available workers are scarce. If the opposite is true, the labour market is instead characterised as ‘loose’.
The charts below compare the three-month rolling average of online jobs postings to the number of unemployed people in London since 2014.
Between 2014 and March 2020, the average ratio of job postings to unemployed Londoners was 0.49. During this period, the ratio peaked at 0.80 in the middle of 2017. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment rose while job postings declined. This led to a sharp drop in the ratio of postings to unemployed Londoners to 0.22.
Unemployment began to fall quickly in 2021 while the number of job postings rose. The increase in the ratio continued into 2022, reaching a peak of around 0.80 in the summer of 2022. The ratio has since declined along with the number of job postings but nevertheless remained at a level higher than any point recorded before 2017.
Some commentators are now arguing that the labour market is cooling as economic inactivity has been falling at the UK level (increasing labour supply) while vacancy numbers have been decreasing. Our indicator for London supports this view as the ratio has been slowly falling since the end of 2022 to stand at 0.54 in May 2023.
Ratio between job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2023, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force
Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Level of job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2023, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force
Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Occupational groups
Trends in the number of online postings
While online job postings trends in most occupational groups reflect the overall London picture of stable recent numbers, there has been continued growth in a number of lower-skilled and manual occupations.
The major occupation group with the largest rate of increase in the post-pandemic period was Elementary Occupations with an increase of 212% from March 2020 to the peak in May 2022.
By June 2023, the change from March 2020 had reduced to 141%, though it was still the highest growth among occupation groups. Sales and Customer Service Occupations saw the lowest growth at 20%.
Among four-digit SOC occupations (with more than 1,000 job postings), Kitchen and catering assistants recorded the highest growth rate from March 2020 to June 2023 at 216%.*
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020
indicated by dotted line.
Trends in advertised salaries
Some online job postings include information on wage levels (advertised salaries).*
The trends in advertised salaries varied across major occupational groups, though all occupations saw a higher salary level in June 2023 than in March 2020.†
The largest increases in advertised salaries year-on-year were in jobs in Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations, which by June 2023 had increased by 17% on the previous year, albeit from a relatively low base.
Other occupational groups which saw steep increases in recent periods were Admin & secretarial, Sales, Operatives, and Elementary. The group with the largest increase in 2023 so far was Elementary Occupations at 8%.
Across all online job postings in London, the median advertised salary was estimated at £42,700 in June 2023. This represents an increase of 2% on the year and an increase of 14% from January 2018.
†Salaries are expressed in nominal terms
and are not adjusted for inflation.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020
indicated by dotted line.
Skill levels
The ONS has grouped all 2-digit occupations into one of four skill levels, with occupations at Level 4 requiring the longest time to acquire full competency.
The number of online job postings varied significantly by skill level, with a higher number of postings for higher skilled jobs in London.
The number of job postings peaked in May 2022* for most skill levels. From then to June 2023, the change in job postings were as follows:
- Skill level 4 (e.g. health professionals): -36%.
- Skill level 3 (e.g. skilled construction trades): -29%.
- Skill level 2 (e.g. sales occupations): -13%.
- Skill level 1 (e.g. elementary service occupations): -23%.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020
and May 2022 indicated by dotted lines. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Top 10 occupations
Sub-major occupation groups
The table below shows the ten two-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three-month period (April 2023-June 2023). For comparison, it also shows the change in the number of job postings compared to the previous three-month period and the same period a year earlier.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: Number of unique new postings in
period. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Unit occupation groups
The table below shows the ten four-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three-month period (April 2023-June 2023). For comparison, it also shows the change in the number of job postings compared to the previous three-month period and the same period a year earlier.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: Number of unique new postings in
period. Based on 4-digit SOC codes.
Job characteristics
Remote work
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic meant that more people started to work from home which was reflected in the increasing share of job postings advertised as remote work from March 2020.
The share of job postings advertised as offering remote working in London peaked at 14.2% in April 2022 but has declined since.
The share of 8.0% in London in June 2023 remained above the share in the UK overall at 5.8%.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. Does not
include hybrid remote jobs. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Flexible work/hours
The chart below shows the long-term trend in the share of online job postings in London advertised with either part-time or flexible hours.
The onset of pandemic lockdowns did not appear to have any large and immediate impact on the share of job postings for flexible or part-time hours relative to the pre-pandemic period. It is unclear what would explain the spikes between August 2021 and March 2022, though it is unlikely to reflect an actual trend in the labour market of the time.
However, there was a gradual increase in the share of postings for part-time jobs from 5.4% in April 2022 to 7.2% in June 2023.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. Full-time
defined as at least 32 hours. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Regional online job postings
The fluctuations in the number of online job postings have been similar across regions. London’s recovery has generally followed the UK trend, but has fallen below the UK average over the past year.
Relative to March 2020 levels:
The level of job postings in the UK overall peaked in November 2021, having grown by 104%. The growth rate for job postings in London was 57% at that point, which was among the lowest across all regions.
By May 2022, London was instead among the regions with the highest growth at 89%, above the UK growth rate of 83%.
In June 2023, the level of job postings in London had again decreased to a cumulative growth rate of 31%, while the UK growth rate had decreased to 50%.
The change in the indexed level of job postings is sensitive to base effects and the date of indexation. Areas with historically low levels of job postings are more likely to experience higher growth rates.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020
indicated by dotted line.
We do not present online job postings estimates at local authority level as the location data is not sufficiently precise to allocate postings to individual London local authorities.