1 Introduction

This report is the third of four short briefings summarising findings from analysis of official data sources that - while not directly quantifying migrant flows or stocks - enable insight into specific aspects of international migration patterns. Our goal is to inform and assist a wide range of users, and for this we depend on your feedback. So please send your comments and suggestions to demography@london.gov.uk.

2 Context for the EUSS

After the UK left the EU, the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) was established to grant eligible applicants an immigration status allowing them to live and work in the UK. This was necessary because the UK repealed the law of free movement at the end of the transition period. The EUSS opened on 29 March 2019, and from then until June 2022 the Home Office published statistics both monthly and quarterly statistics on the scheme. Now statistics are only released each quarter.

The data cannot be used to infer the number of non-UK nationals in the country, since data do not exist on the number of people eligible to apply who have not done so.

In total, 7.222 million applications had been received by the end of March 2023, with 6.052 million of these having been received before the deadline of 30th June 2021. Applications continue to be accepted after the deadline if there are “reasonable grounds” for late application. The number of applications greatly exceeds the number analysts predicted at the start of the scheme when the number of eligible people living in the UK was estimated at c.3.5 million. The two most important factors underlying the difference between the two numbers are likely to be:

Official population estimates understate the total number of EU citizens living in the UK: some groups are excluded from the figures, and others are thought to be undercounted; and
Some people who have applied to EUSS may no longer live in the UK. People with settled status can be absent from the UK for up to 5 years without losing their status. Some people with pre-settled status will have applied during a temporary stay in the UK and then left the country.

Another reason is that EUSS figures include non-European Economic Area (EEA) national family members and eligible EEA nationals not resident in the UK, who would not be included in EU population estimates provided by the Office for National Statistics. Also, the total includes repeat applications, including those moving from pre-settled to settled status. Of the total 7.2 million applications made up to end of March 2023, 978,930 (14%) were repeat applications. while of the 1.2 million applications received between the end of June 2021 and the end of March 2023, 402,400 (34%) were repeat applications.

Data on this scheme are provided quarterly by the Home Office.The most recent data were released on 25/05/23.
Source of data: gov.uk

3 Total applications to date, for London

With respect to London-specific data, 2.42 million applications had been made by the end of March 2023 (35% of the total 7.01 million having location data).

The map below shows the geographical variation within London in the absolute numbers of applications made to the EUSS.

The highest number of applications made by end March 2023 were from Newham 7.2% (174,020), Brent 6.5% (156,920), Ealing 5.1% (124,250), and Haringey 4.8% (116,740). These boroughs still rank the highest when the numbers of applications are adjusted for the boroughs’ population size.

When the 374 local authorities in the UK are ranked with respect to the number of applications received between 28 August 2018 and 31 March 2023, 12 of the top 15 are in London. The London borough of Newham accounts for the second highest number of applicants (174,020) after Birmingham (176,200). Leicester (110,240) and Manchester (110,060) ranked 6th and 7th.

Source: Home Office. Chart: GLA demography

The chart above shows that the nationalities accounting for the highest totals in London were Romanians 18.7% (453,370), Italians 11.6% (280,960), Non-EEA 10.3% (250,180) and Polish 9.4% (227,160).

The map above shows for each London borough the nationality with the highest number of applications to the EUSS. The inner London boroughs tend to have the highest number of applicants from the wealthier Western European countries of Italy, Spain and France while the outer London boroughs have more applicants from the Eastern European countries of Romania, Bulgaria and Poland.

4 Total outcomes to date, for London and the UK

Source: Home Office. Chart: GLA demography

Comparing the outcome of EUSS applications between London and the rest of the UK, the chart above shows that in London, the application outcome was more likely to be pre-settled status, and less likely to be settled compared to the rest of the UK. Specifically, by the end of March 2023, the outcome of settled status was associated with 49.4% applications in London, and 51.2% of applications in the rest of the UK, while the outcome of pre-settled status was associated with 40.5% of London applications, and 37.7% of applications from the rest of the UK. The proportion of other outcomes was lower in London compared to the rest of the UK than London (10.0% compared to 11.0%). These proportions only include those applications with location data (6.85 million of the 7.05 million concluded applications up to the end of March 2023).

5 Trends in applications for the UK

The black line in the chart above shows the total number of applications submitted each month. The coloured areas show the number of applications with the outcome decision still outstanding for those applications with location data, between Q4 2019 and Q1 2023. The chart shows that around a third of applications with location data were from London. The number of applications was highest in the months following the main launch of the scheme in 2019, peaking at 592,000 in October 2019. Applications peaked again, at 351,000 in January 2020 and 396,000 in December 2020 during key negotiation periods, and again in June 2021 (439,000) as 31st June 2021 was the deadline for most people to apply. The number of outstanding applications also peaked in the second quarter of 2021, to c.602,000 (557,000 with location data). The number of outstanding applications with location data had fallen to 170,100 by the end of March 2023.

By the end of March 2023 there had been a total of 7,221,650 applications of which 7,054,720 were concluded, so there were 166,930 still outstanding (of which 157,060 had location data and are plotted in the chart above).

6 Trends in outcomes for the UK

The two charts below show the monthly outcomes from EUSS applications over the last two years, with the first chart showing absolute numbers and the second showing the proportions of different types.

The first chart above shows a peak of monthly concluded applications at end November 2020 of nearly 240,000. The second chart shows that the proportion of refusals increased from around 3% at the start of 2021 to a peak of 40% in November and December 2022. This is consistent with government guidance on late applications which indicated the approach would become stricter over time. Overall, 7.3% of all concluded applications between the start of the scheme and the end of March 2023 were refusals (511,960 out of 7,054,720).

For more information, or to send your comments and suggestions, please contact the Demography Team, GLA City Intelligence Unit.
demography@london.gov.uk