1 Introduction

The report is the fourth of four short briefings summarising findings from analysis of official data sources that - while not directly quantifying migrant flows or stocks - enable insight into specific aspects of international migration patterns. Our goal is to inform and assist a wide range of users, and for this we depend on your feedback. So please send your comments and suggestions to demography@london.gov.uk.

2 How can we use NINo statistics to explore international migration?

In the UK a National Insurance number (NINo) is required for people to work; claim benefits; apply for a student loan and pay Class 3 voluntary National Insurance contributions. Together with visa data, data on NINo allocations to adult overseas nationals entering the UK are sometimes used to infer trends in immigration to the UK, However NINo data have many limitations concerning their use to infer migration patterns, for example, the data include visitors and short-term migrants; commonly there is a time lag between arrival in the country and application; and people who are not working commonly do not apply for a NINo (for example, many full-time students). This data source became even less useful in 2020 when issuing NINos was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for EU nationals for whom registration was temporarily halted. Despite these limitations, given the longitudinal nature of the dataset, we consider it worthwhile to continue to document trends in NINo data to help explore potential changes in the UK and London populations after Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source of data: gov.uk
The data are produced and published quarterly by the Department of Work and Pensions with collaboration from Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC).
The most recent data were released on 25/05/23.

3 Time trends

For the year ending March 2023 there were 1.1 million NINo registrations from non-UK overseas nationals, and this was the highest number of registrations since the published figures began in 2002. For comparison, the figures for the years ending in March were approximately 770,000 for 2022, and 650,000 in 2019 (before the COVID-19 pandemic).

For the year ending March 2023, 86% of the registrations were for nationals from Non-EU countries while for the year ending March 2019 this proportion was just 35%.

The bar chart below includes just applications in London, and shows the number of NINo registrations by global region, since the third quarter of 2016.

Source: Home Office. Chart: GLA demography

The chart shows the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Brexit from the second quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021. It shows the recent growth in NINO registrations for Asian nationals, and decrease in registrations for EU nationals from Q3 2021 onwards.

From January 2021, EU citizens lost freedom of movement with respect to the UK, and were integrated into the same points-based system as people applying for entry from non-EU countries. Consequently, even though COVID-19 related restrictions on international travel were relaxed in 2021, the numbers of quarterly NINo registrations for EU citizens did not recover to their pre-pandemic levels.

The chart below compares applications in London during the first quarter of 2023 with those in the last quarter of 2019.

Source: Home Office. Chart: GLA demography

The first chart above showed the recent decrease in registrations by EU nationals, and increase in registrations by nationals from other parts of the world especially Asia. This second chart above provides more detail about individual nationalities, and shows the growth in proportions of applications from Indian nationals (from 11% to 30%), Nigerian nationals (from 1% to 8%), and also nationals from Pakistan, Ukraine and Bangladesh. The chart also shows the decrease in proportions of applications from Romania (14% to 3%) which is still the EU nationality accounting for the highest number of applicants. Other EU countries that now account for 1% or less of applications are Italy, Spain, France, Bulgaria and Portugal (in Q4 2019 these accounted for 10%, 7%, 5%, 5% and 4% of London applications respectively).

4 The most recent statistics

The final chart focuses just on data from the first three months of 2023, and compares the patterns of applications between London and the whole of the United Kingdom with respect to the proportion of all applications from that geographical area that are accounted for by nationals from different countries.

Source: Home Office. Chart: GLA demography

The chart shows that both for London and the whole UK, in the first quarter of 2023, the nationality with the highest number of registrations from Non-EU Nationals was India followed by Nigeria, Pakistan and Ukraine. Compared to the whole UK, London accounted for a disproportionately high number of applications from Indian, Chinese and Bangladeshi nationals, and low number of applications from Nigeria and Pakistan.

For more information, or to send your comments and suggestions, please contact the Demography Team, GLA City Intelligence Unit.
demography@london.gov.uk