Online Job Postings - quarterly update
Ammar Ljubijankić Kutasi, January 2023
The job market in London is still cooling off, according to the latest online postings data, providing more evidence that the labour market recovery is continuing to slow.
Following a sharp decrease in online job posting numbers in the summer of 2022, the number of postings has stabilised around pre-pandemic averages in recent months, albeit higher than in 2019. Estimates from other data providers show similar trends.
Estimated labour market tightness - the ratio of job postings to unemployed Londoners - has also stabilised, though it remained at a high level in the latest data.
Advertised salaries, while generally volatile, still appear to be on the rise for lower-paid occupations, such as those in Caring and Leisure; Elementary; and Administration and Secretarial roles.
Introduction
This update is based on online job postings data provided by Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass). It looks at online postings for jobs in London, including detail on information within postings (e.g. occupations, salary level and job location).
The number of online job postings is an indicator of the demand for labour, as well as the quality of skills matches in the labour market. Used together with traditional sources, it can (for example) be used to help to support the planning and delivery of skills provision and careers information, advice and guidance.
The number of online job postings is presented as unique, deduplicated monthly postings. However, online job postings data is subject to revision and not all jobs adverts are posted online. It is unlikely to present the full picture for job openings in London. For more information see: Understanding online job postings data.
More data on London’s labour market can be found on the London Datastore.
Total online job postings
The chart below shows the number of unique online postings for jobs in London. Given the volatility associated with single-month estimates, the three-month average estimates are likely to provide a more reliable indication of short-term changes in the demand for labour.
The three-month average number of online postings climbed rapidly in early 2022 to reach 195,000 in the three months to May 2022, very close to the peak of 196,000 in the three months to September 2017.
As discussed below, the online job postings measure align with several ONS indicators which showed a tight UK labour market in early 2022, as vacancies were high while unemployment levels were decreasing.
The number of online job postings decreased just as rapidly over the summer of 2022. There were 143,000 online postings for jobs in London in December 2022 (single-month estimate). However, the level remained far higher than the post-COVID-19 low of 50,800 recorded in April 2020.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Comparison of data providers
Trends in online job postings from Lightcast correlate well with similar data published by Indeed and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), but less so with a new ONS series using data from Textkernel*.
All four series show a cooling off in numbers of postings since early 2022.
Data from each of these sources show a very sharp drop in job posting levels just after the start of the pandemic in March 2020, though Textkernel estimated the smallest decrease at 15%.
The decline was followed by a gradual increase in job postings estimates from Indeed, Adzuna, and Lightcast, though the latter series show a series of peaks and troughs. Estimates from Textkernel suggest the number of job postings tripled by December 2021 before starting a steep decline throughout 2022.
Source: Lightcast (monthly online job postings, non-seasonally adjusted), Indeed (average of daily online job postings), ONS (average of weekly online job adverts from Adzuna, non-seasonally adjusted; and Textkernel online job postings).
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Vacancies and unemployment
Comparing the level of job vacancies (or online job postings) with unemployment can be used to assess the status of the labour market. It is said to be ‘tight’ if vacant jobs are plentiful and available workers are scarce. If the opposite is true, the labour market is instead characterised as ‘loose’.
The charts below compare the three-month rolling average of online jobs postings to the number of unemployed people in London since 2014.
Between 2014 and March 2020, the average ratio of job postings to unemployed Londoners was 0.51. During this period, the ratio peaked at 0.83 in the middle of 2017.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment rose while job postings declined. This led to a sharp drop in the ratio of postings to unemployed Londoners to 0.25.
Unemployment then began decreasing quickly in 2021 as the number of job postings grew. The increase in the ratio continued into 2022, reaching a peak of around 0.84 in the summer of 2022. The ratio has declined as the number of job postings fell but nevertheless remained at a high level.
Ratio between job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2023, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Level of job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2023, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Occupational groups
Trends in the number of online postings
Online job postings trends in most occupational groups reflect the overall London picture. After increases in the first half of 2022, postings declined in more recent months.
The major occupation group with the largest rate of increase in the post-pandemic period was Elementary Occupations with an increase of 197.2% from March 2020 to May 2022.
By December 2022, the change from March 2020 had reduced to 106.1%, though it was still the highest growth among occupation groups. Professional Occupations saw the lowest growth at 26.3%.
Among four-digit SOC occupations (with more than 1,000 job postings), Kitchen and catering assistants recorded the highest growth rate from March 2020 to December 2022 at 211.5%.*
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Trends in advertised salaries
Some online job postings include information on wage levels (advertised salaries).*
The trends in advertised salaries varied across major occupational groups, though all occupations saw a higher salary level in December 2022 than in March 2020.†
Associate Professional & Technical, Admin & Secretarial and Sales occupations recorded steep increases in advertised salaries following the onset of COVID-19. The advertised salaries in these groups then declined in late 2021, before recovering somewhat in 2022.
The largest increases in advertised salaries in 2022 were in jobs in the Admin & secretarial and Elementary groups, which by December 2022 had increased by 13.9% and 15.3% on the previous year, respectively. Alongside Caring & leisure, these groups have seen particularly steep rises in recent months.
Across all online job postings in London, the median advertised salary was estimated at £38,600 in December 2022. This represents a decrease of 5.0% on the year and an increase of 2.7% from January 2018.
†Salaries are expressed in nominal terms and are not adjusted for inflation.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Skill levels
The ONS has grouped all 2-digit occupations into one of four skill levels, with occupations at Level 4 requiring the longest time to acquire full competency.
The number of online job postings varied significantly by skill level, with a higher number of postings for higher skilled jobs in London.
The number of job postings peaked in March 2022 for most skill levels. From then to December 2022, the change in job postings were as follows:
- Skill level 4 (e.g. health professionals): -34%.
- Skill level 3 (e.g. skilled construction trades): -29%.
- Skill level 2 (e.g. sales occupations): -25%.
- Skill level 1 (e.g. elementary service occupations): -24%.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 and March 2022 indicated by dotted lines. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Top 10 occupations
Sub-major occupation groups
The table below shows the ten two-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three-month period (October 2022-December 2022). For comparison, it also shows the change in the number of job postings compared to the previous three-month period and the same period a year earlier.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Unit occupation groups
The table below shows the ten four-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three-month period (October 2022-December 2022). For comparison, it also shows the change in the number of job postings compared to the previous three-month period and the same period a year earlier.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 4-digit SOC codes.
Job characteristics
Remote work
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic meant that more people started to work from home and that was reflected in the increasing share of job postings advertised as remote work from March 2020.
The share of job postings advertised as offering remote working in London peaked at 14.4% in April 2022 and remained above 10% until a steep decline in December 2022.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Flexible work/hours
The chart below shows the long-term trend in the share of online job postings in London advertised with either part-time or flexible hours. While both have remained low over recent years, the share of postings with flexible hours appears to have increased to a higher level since March 2020 (although from a lower base level).
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. Full-time defined as at least 32 hours. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Regional online job postings
The fluctuations in the number of online job postings have been similar across regions. Relative to March 2020 levels:
The level of job postings in the UK overall peaked in November 2021, having grown by 104%. The growth rate for job postings in London was 57% at that point, which was among the lowest across all regions.
By May 2022, London was instead among the regions with the highest growth at 89%, above the UK growth rate of 83%.
In December 2022, the level of job postings in London had again decreased to a cumulative growth rate of 31%, while the UK growth rate had decreased to 50%.
The change in the indexed level of job postings is sensitive to base effects and the date of indexation. Areas with historically low levels of job postings are more likely to experience higher growth rates.
Source: Lightcast 2023.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
We do not present online job postings estimates at local authority level as the location data is not sufficiently precise to allocate postings to individual London local authorities and are often set to Westminster by default.