Online Job Postings - quarterly update
October 2022
Contact: Ammar Ljubijankic Kutasi
Following a sharp increase in online job posting numbers since the end of 2021, we are now seeing a similarly steep decrease in postings for jobs in London.
With the unemployment rate in London at a record low, the decline in job postings could begin to ease concerns that the labour market is too tight for firms to find the workers they need. One measure of labour market tightness, the ratio of job postings to unemployed Londoners, has begun to fall.
Job posting numbers have fallen across occupational groups since peaking in March 2022. However, there are still more postings for jobs in higher-skilled occupations.
Introduction
This update is based on online job postings data provided by Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass). It looks at online postings for jobs in London, including detail on information within postings (e.g. occupations, salary level and job location).
The number of online job postings over time is an indicator of the demand for labour, as well as the quality of skills matches in the labour market. Used together with traditional sources, it can (for example) be used to help to support the planning and delivery of skills provision and careers information, advice and guidance.
The number of online job postings is presented as unique, deduplicated monthly postings. However, online job postings data is subject to revision and not all jobs adverts are posted online. It is unlikely to present the full picture for job openings in London. For more information see: Understanding online job postings data.
More data on London’s labour market can be found on the London Datastore.
Total online job postings
The chart below shows the number of unique online postings for jobs in London. Given the volatility associated with single-month estimates, the three-month average estimates are likely to provide a more reliable indication of short-term changes in the demand for labour.
The three-month average number of online postings climbed rapidly in early 2022 to reach 195,000 in the three months to May 2022, very close to the peak of 196,000 in the three months to September 2017.
As discussed below, the online job postings measure align with several ONS indicators which showed a tight UK labour market in early 2022, as vacancies were high while unemployment levels were decreasing.
The number of online job postings decreased just as rapidly over the summer of 2022. There were 139,000 online postings for jobs in London in September 2022 (single-month estimate). However, the level remained far higher than the post-COVID-19 low of 51,100 recorded in April 2020.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Comparison of data providers
Trends in online job postings from Lightcast correlate well with similar data published by Indeed and the Office for National Statistics (ONS)*. Data from Lightcast nevertheless appears to be more volatile.
Data from each of these sources show a very sharp drop in job posting levels of around 50%-60% after March 2020, followed by a gradual increase through 2020 and 2021.
Online job postings from Indeed and ONS stabilised before reaching a level almost 50% higher than the March 2020 level, while Lightcast data show additional troughs and peaks occcuring in late 2021 and early 2022.
Source: Lightcast (monthly online job postings, non-seasonally adjusted), Indeed (average of daily online job postings), ONS (average of weekly online job adverts, non-seasonally adjusted).
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Vacancies and unemployment
Comparing the level of job vacancies (or online job postings) with unemployment can be used to assess the status of the labour market. It is said to be ‘tight’ if vacant jobs are plentiful and available workers are scarce. If the opposite is true, the labour market is instead characterised as ‘loose’.
The charts below compare the three-month rolling average of online jobs postings to the number of unemployed people in London since 2014.
Between 2014 and March 2020, the average ratio of job postings to unemployed Londoners was 0.51. During this period, the ratio peaked at 0.83 in the middle of 2017.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, unemployment rose while job postings declined. This led to a sharp drop in the ratio of postings to unemployed Londoners to 0.25.
Unemployment then began decreasing quickly in 2021 as the number of job postings grew. The increase in the ratio continued into 2022, reaching a peak of around 0.84 in the summer of 2022 before falling slightly. The ratio nevertheless remained at a very high level.
Ratio between job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2022, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Level of job postings and unemployment
Source: Lightcast 2022, non-seasonally adjusted; ONS Labour Force Survey.
Note: March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Occupational groups
Trends in the number of online postings
Online job postings trends in most occupational groups reflect the overall London picture. After increases in the first half of 2022, postings declined in more recent months.
The major occupation group with the largest rate of increase in the post-pandemic period was Elementary Occupations with an increase of 204.6% from March 2020 to May 2022.
By September 2022, the change from March 2020 had reduced to 76.0%, though it was still the highest growth among occupation groups. Associate Professional and Technical Occupations saw the lowest growth at 22.3%.
Among four-digit SOC occupations (with more than 1,000 job postings), Chefs recorded the highest growth rate from March 2020 to September 2022 at 127.4%.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Trends in advertised salaries
Some online job postings include information on wage levels (advertised salaries).*
The trends in advertised salaries varied across major occupational groups, though all occupations saw a higher salary level in September 2022 than in March 2020.†
Associate Professional & Technical, Admin & Secretarial and Sales occupations recorded steep increases in advertised salaries following the onset of COVID-19. The advertised salaries in these groups then declined in late 2021, before recovering somewhat in 2022.
The largest increases in advertised salaries in 2022 were in jobs in the Process, Plant & Machine Operatives and Elementary groups, which by September 2022 had increased by 7.4% and 7.3% on the previous year, respectively.
Across all online job postings in London, the median advertised salary was estimated at £42,200 in September 2022. This represents an increase of 6.5% on the year and an increase of 12.3% from January 2018.
†Salaries are expressed in nominal terms and are not adjusted for inflation.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Skill levels
The ONS has grouped all 2-digit occupations into one of four skill levels, with occupations at Level 4 requiring the longest time to acquire full competency.
The number of online job postings varied significantly by skill level, with a higher number of postings for higher skilled jobs in London.
The number of job postings peaked in March 2022 for most skill levels. From then to September 2022, the change in job postings were as follows:
- Skill level 4 (e.g. health professionals): -35%.
- Skill level 3 (e.g. skilled construction trades): -34%.
- Skill level 2 (e.g. sales occupations): -25%.
- Skill level 1 (e.g. elementary service occupations): -37%.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 and March 2022 indicated by dotted lines. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Top 10 occupations
Sub-major occupation groups
The table below shows the ten two-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three month period (July 2022-September 2022). For comparison, it also shows the equivalent top ten in the same period three years ago (July 2019-September 2019).
Despite changes in the economic context, the ranking of occupations in the two periods is similar and the top five occupational groups are the same.
July 2022-September 2022
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
July 2019-September 2019
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 2-digit SOC codes.
Unit occupation groups
The table below shows the ten four-digit SOC codes with the highest number of unique new online job postings in the most recent three month period (July 2022-September 2022). It also shows the equivalent top ten in the same period three years ago for comparison (July 2019-September 2019).
Despite changes in the economic context, the occupations listed are broadly similar.
July 2022-September 2022
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 4-digit SOC codes.
July 2019-September 2019
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: Number of unique new postings in period. Based on 4-digit SOC codes.
Job characteristics
Remote work
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic meant that more people started to work from home and that was reflected in the increasing share of job postings advertised as remote work from March 2020.
Since then, the share of job postings advertised as offering remote working in London has remained relatively stable, peaking at 14.3% in April 2022 and remained above 10% afterwards.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Flexible work/hours
The chart below shows the long-term trend in the share of online job postings in London advertised with either part-time or flexible hours. While both have remained low over recent years, the share of postings with flexible hours appears to have increased to a higher level following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. Full-time defined as at least 32 hours. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.
Regional online job postings
The fluctuations in the number of online job postings have been similar across regions. Relative to March 2020 levels:
The level of job postings in the UK overall peaked in November 2021, having grown by 104%. The growth rate for job postings in London was 57% at that point, which was among the lowest across all regions.
By May 2022, London was instead among the regions with the highest growth at 89%, above the UK growth rate of 83%.
In September 2022, the level of job postings in London had again decreased to a cumulative growth rate of 31%, while the UK growth rate had decreased to 50%.
The change in the indexed level of job postings is sensitive to base effects and the date of indexation. Areas with historically low levels of job postings are more likely to experience higher growth rates.
Source: Lightcast 2022.
Note: non-seasonally adjusted. March 2020 indicated by dotted line.