Population projections

The GLA’s population projections are updated annually at both local authority and ward level.

The GLA’s models and assumptions continue to evolve as new data is released and each new round of projections supersedes earlier rounds. Projections from older rounds are included here to illustrate how projections have changed over time, but where possible users should use data from the most recently produced round.

 

Variant projections

Multiple projection variants are produced to cover a range of applications. The variants can differ in the methodologies and assumptions used. The production of these variants has been driven by the desire to meet the needs of a wide range of users. While multiple variants are useful for some users, the team is mindful that this proliferation can cause confusion among others as to which variant to use for their purposes.

A tool summarising the relationships between variants is available here.

 

National outputs

The 2016-based GLA population and household projections are the first to include outputs for areas outside London. The detailed model outputs (available here) include model results for all local authorities in England as well as national outputs for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

2016-based population projections

Released in July 2017 these are the most recent set of GLA projections.

 

Superseded projections
Previous, now superseded, projection outputs and accompanying documents have been organised into individual rounds and can be accessed via the links below.