(2017 mid-year estimate, ONS)
The GLA’s population projections are updated annually at both local authority and ward level. The most up-to-date complete set of GLA projections are the 2016-based projections.
2017-based trend population and household outputs are now also available. The next full update of the the GLA's projections will be the 2018-based projections, scheduled for release in autumn 2019.
The GLA recommends the housing-led variant projection for most uses. Click here to download the housing-led projection .
Multiple projection variants are produced to cover a range of applications. The variants can differ in the methodologies and assumptions used. The production of these variants has been driven by the desire to meet the needs of a wide range of users. While multiple variants are useful for some users, the team is mindful that this proliferation can cause confusion among others as to which variant to use for their purposes.
A tool summarising the relationships between variants is available ( click here ) .
Projections methodology and documentation are available in a separate datastore dataset ( click here ) .
All projections are available to download below. The full list of GLA population projections and variants is as follows:
Household projections use the 2014 DCLG household projection model to convert projected population into households. The available household projections are:
Research outputs produced by applying the ONS 2016-based household projection model to the GLA 2016-based Central trend projections are available here.
The 2016-based GLA population and household projections are the first to include outputs for areas outside London. The detailed model outputs, available below, include model results for all local authorities in England as well as national outputs for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The GLA’s models and assumptions continue to evolve as new data is released and each new round of projections supersedes earlier rounds. Earlier projections files are available in the GLA projections archive .
GLA demography has published employment-led projections for London which provide populations consistent with GLA Economics employment projection sceanrios
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