GLA Population and Household Projections

Created a year ago, updated 19 days ago

London’s current population is 8.825 million

(2017 mid-year estimate, ONS)

 

GLA Projections

The GLA’s population projections are updated annually at both local authority and ward level. The most up-to-date complete set of GLA projections are the 2016-based projections.

2017-based trend population and household outputs are now also available. The next full update of the the GLA's projections will be the 2018-based projections, scheduled for release in autumn 2019.

The GLA recommends the housing-led variant projection for most uses. Click here to download the housing-led projection .


Variant projections

Multiple projection variants are produced to cover a range of applications. The variants can differ in the methodologies and assumptions used. The production of these variants has been driven by the desire to meet the needs of a wide range of users. While multiple variants are useful for some users, the team is mindful that this proliferation can cause confusion among others as to which variant to use for their purposes.

A tool summarising the relationships between variants is available ( click here ) .

 

Documentation

Projections methodology and documentation are available in a separate datastore dataset ( click here ) .

 

Population Projections

All projections are available to download below. The full list of GLA population projections and variants is as follows: 

  • Housing-led
  • Central trend
  • Short-term trend
  • Long-term trend
  • Ward housing-led
  • MSOA housing-led
  • Ethnic Group (central trend)
  • Ethnic Group (housing-led)

  

Household Projections

Household projections use the 2014 DCLG household projection model to convert projected population into households. The available household projections are:

  • Central trend
  • Short-term trend
  • Long-term trend

  

Research outputs

Research outputs produced by applying the ONS 2016-based household projection model to the GLA 2016-based Central trend projections are available here.

National outputs

The 2016-based GLA population and household projections are the first to include outputs for areas outside London. The detailed model outputs, available below, include model results for all local authorities in England as well as national outputs for Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

Projections Archive

The GLA’s models and assumptions continue to evolve as new data is released and each new round of projections supersedes earlier rounds. Earlier projections files are available in the GLA projections archive .

 

Experimental Outputs

GLA demography has published employment-led projections for London which provide populations consistent with GLA Economics employment projection sceanrios

 

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Projected population for London boroughs from the 2017-based central trend projection

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Projected population for London boroughs from the 2017-based short-term trend projection

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Projected population for London boroughs from the 2017-based long-term trend projection

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Projected total households for London boroughs from the 2017-based central trend projection

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Projected total households for London boroughs from the 2017-based short-term trend projection

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Projected total households for London boroughs from the 2017-based long-term trend projection

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Detailed & national outputs for the 2017-based central trend population and household projections

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Detailed & national outputs for the 2017-based short-term population and household projections

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Detailed & national outputs for the 2017-based long-term population and household projections

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Borough-level projection incorporating the 2016 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) development trajectory. Constrained to the central trend projection at the London level. This data file contains the assumed development trajectory from the 2016 SHLAA.
  Local Authority
spreadsheet
2016-based central trend population projection. Borough-level.
  Local Authority
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2016-based central trend household projection. Borough-level.
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2016-based central trend population projection. Detailed components of change and projections for all local authorities in England.
spreadsheet
2016-based long-term trend population projection. Borough-level.
  Local Authority
spreadsheet
2016-based long-term trend household projection. Borough-level.
  Local Authority
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2016-based long-term trend population projection. Detailed components of change and projections for all local authorities in England.
  Local Authority
spreadsheet
2016-based short-term trend population projection. Borough-level.
  Local Authority
spreadsheet
2016-based short-term trend household projection. Borough-level.
  Local Authority
zip
2016-based short-term trend population projection. Detailed components of change and projections for all local authorities in England.
  Local Authority
spreadsheet
Ward-level projection incorporating the 2016 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) development trajectory. Constrained to the central trend projection at the London level.
  Ward
spreadsheet
Mid-level Super Output Area (MSOA) population projection incorporating the 2016 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) development trajectory. Constrained to the central trend projection at the London level.
  Middle Super Output Area
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2016-based ethnic group population projection. Constrained to the borough-level housing-led projection. 17 ethnic groups. Borough-level.
  Greater London   Local Authority
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2016-based ethnic group population projection. Constrained to the borough-level central trend projection. 17 ethnic groups. Borough-level.
  Greater London   Local Authority
spreadsheet

The 2016-based employment-led population projections are experimental statistics. They provide populations consistent with GLA Economics employment projections scenarios.