Interim 2015-based population projections
IMPORTANT NOTE: The 2016-based TREND projections are now available. For housing-led projections the Interim 2015-based projections remain the most current. The housing-led projections will be updated when the 2017 SHLAA is published in Autumn 2017.
see https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ for the latest trend GLA projections.
From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection.
This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set.
Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:
- Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario)
- Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario)
- Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario)
- Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)
- Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model
- MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model
Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset.
Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page.
A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.
A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here.
These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.
Data & Resources
|Smallest Geography||Middle Super Output Area|