Interim 2015-based population projections

 Created 9 months ago, modified 4 months ago

IMPORTANT NOTE: The 2016-based TREND projections are now available. For housing-led projections the Interim 2015-based projections remain the most current. The housing-led projections will be updated when the 2017 SHLAA is published in Autumn 2017.

see for the latest trend GLA projections.


From January 2017 the GLA has revised its naming convention for it's population projections. Projections will now be labelled based on the latest mid-year estimate data which informs the projection. As such this set of projections is a 2015-based projection.

This set of projections is labelled ‘interim’ in anticipation of a revised set of 2015-based projections which will inform the London Plan. Once released, in spring 2017, those projections will supersede this set.

Four variants of local authority level population projections, one ward-level projection and one msoa-level projection are currenty available:



  • Central Trend-based projection (using a 10-year migration scenario)
  • Short-term Trend-based projection (using a 5-year migration scenario) 
  • Long-term Trend-based projection (using a 14-year migration scenario)
  • Housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA (consistent with the central trend model)


Small Area

  • Ward-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model
  • MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model



Methodology papers for all of the projections are availble on the documentation page for this dataset.

Reults Updates for the Trend and Housing-led projections are available on the documentation page.

A series of ward projection profiles are also available to dowload.



A tool detailing the relationships between the various projections and variants can be found here.

These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.



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  Data & Resources

housing_led_interim_2015_base  (4.02 MB)
msoa_interim_2015_base  (59.13 MB)
ward_interim_2015_base  (37.87 MB)
central_interim_trend_2015_base  (4.05 MB)
central_interim_2015_base_components  (3.75 MB)
long_term_trend_interim_2015_base  (4.05 MB)
long_intermin_trend_2015_base  (3.75 MB)
short_term_trend_iterim_2015_base  (4.03 MB)
short_term_2015_base_components  (3.75 MB)

  Additional Info