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Household projection data for modelling

Greater London Authority (GLA)
Data
Created 9 months ago, updated 18 days ago

The GLA is currently developing updated household projection models for use in its 2023-based projections.

**Update 27-06-2025** A technical note providing an overiew of the work to date and draft results has been added to the page. The draft projections and model inputs discussed in the note are also available to download.

Outputs from the GLA Interim 2023-based projections are available here.

This page will initially contain raw input data to the projections, with processed data, calculated rates, draft outputs, and links to code being added as development progresses.

Inputs:

  • Census estimates of population usually resident population by age, sex, local authority, and residence type.
  • Census estimates of household representative persons by age, sex, local authority, and household type

Data from standard Census tables published by ONS have been downloaded from Nomis and republished here. Full metadata for these tables can be found on the relevant pages of the Nomis website.

Additional Census tables were commissioned from ONS via the GLA's Census Information Scheme.

For further information about the commissioned tables, please contact census.commissiontables@ons.gov.uk

Technical note - May 2025  (4.71 MB)

Technical note providing background, analysis, and draft results produced as part of the process of developing the GLA's 2023-based household projections

household_projections.zip  (98.85 MB)

Draft household projections produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.

These projections are considered research outputs.

Archive includes multiple projections based on different combinations of:

population projection variant

methodology for projecting future Household Representative Rates (HRR)

Archives containing these population and HRR inputs are available to download separately from this page.

  Greater London   Region   Local Authority
population_projections.zip  (13.15 MB)

Estimated and projected population by residence type (private household or communal establishment) produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.

Data are based on the GLA Interim 2023-based population projections and includes three variants:

2023_ppt_10yr.csv - Principal Fertility/Principal Life Expectancy/10-year migration (PPT-10yr)

2023_hht_15yr.csv - High Fertility/High Life Expectancy/15-year migration (HHT-15yr)

2023_llt_5yr.csv - Low Fertility/Low Life Expectancy/5-year migration (LLT-5yr)

  Greater London   Region   Local Authority
household_representative_rates.zip  (30.75 MB)

Estimated and projected Household Representative Rates (HRR) produced as part of the development of the draft 2023-based projections.

Includes rates projected using several different methodologies:

hrr_2pt_exp_2001_21.csv - projected using a 2-point exponential model based on estimated rates for 2001 and 2021

hrr_const_2021.csv - rates held constant at estimated 2021 levels

hrr_10yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2036

hrr_20yr_return_2001.csv - rates returning to at least their 2001 levels over the period 2026 to 2046

  Greater London   Region   Local Authority
gla_2016-based_population_projections_by_age_group.zip  (8.69 MB)

population by age_group for each published variant of the GLA's 2016-based projections

gla_2022-based_population_projections_by_age_group.zip  (10.77 MB)

population by age_group for each published variant of the GLA's 2022-based projections

C1464.xlsx  (4.14 MB)

2001 Census commissioned table C1464 - Sex by age of Household Reference Person (HRP) by bespoke household composition

Produced by ONS

ct13082011census.xlsx  (1020.26 kB)

2011 Census commissioned table CT1308 - Sex by age of Household Reference Person (HRP) by bespoke household composition

Produced by ONS and published here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/adhocs/2283ct13082011census

ct210324census2021.xlsx  (1010.96 kB)

2021 Census commissioned table CT21_0324 - Sex by age of Household Reference Person (HRP) by bespoke household family composition

Produced by ONS and published here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/adhocs/2282ct210324census2021

ST001_2001_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv  (10.65 MB)

2001 Census table ST001 - Age by sex and resident type

Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/st001

DC1104EW_2011_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv  (11.32 MB)

2011 Census table DC1104EW - Residence type by sex by age

Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/census/2011/dc1104ew

RM120_2021_population_age_sex_residence_type.csv  (11.58 MB)

2021 Census table RM210 - Residence type by sex by age

Downloaded from Nomis: https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/datasets/c2021rm120

Author

GLA Demography

Maintainer

GLA Demography

Smallest Geography

Local Authority

Licence

Licence: Not Specified