GLA Population Projections 2009 Round (revised), SHLAA, Economically Active

Are these updated figures relevant to planning as they do not discriminate between high and low projections? We are supposed to use high population figures for infrastructure planning.

Regards

Armelle Racinoux

Graduate Policy planner

London Borough of Ealing

The 2009 Round does not have formal high and low projections as in the 2008 Round.

The London Plan projection is based on the London Plan housing provision targets which were themselves based on the average SHLAA housing capacity figures for 2011-21 but with discounts that varied from borough to borough. Therefore up to 2021 the SHLAA projection is always higher in every borough. See Annex 4 of the London Plan (October 2009) for the targets as well as advice about rolling forward the targets after 2021. See Table 4.15 of the London Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment and Housing Capacity Study 2009 (October 2009) for the phased capacity for London.

In the London Plan projection the same targets are maintained to 2031 but the SHLAA capacities fall away in each period. Therefore at some time between 2021 and 2031 the London Plan projection overtakes the SHLAA projection in every borough. The precise year depends upon the extent of the change in the SHLAA capacities after 2021.