GLA Demographic Projections

This page is intended to act as a hub for navigating the GLA’s range of published demographic projections.  Links to datasets and release dates will be added as they become available.

The Demography team within the GLA maintains a number of sets of demographic projections.  These sets cover different geographies, development assumptions, and output groupings.  Most sets are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. 

Recent Intelligence Unit Updates:

Technical note to accompany the 2011 round borough population projections.

This Update gives a brief summary of the GLA 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections using the SHLAA (Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment).

Update showing the internal and overseas migration trends applicable to London and the UK based on the recent ONS data release.

This Update relates to the 2010 round of SHLAA based projections.

Additional Intelligence Unit Updates relating to population and diversity can be found here and here.

Development trajectories used

The GLA produces several projection variants using different housing trajectory assumptions.  Published here are projections that use either the London Plan housing targets or development trajectories based on the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) - see here for more information.  Updated SHLAA projections are produced annually.

Borough-level population projections by single years of age:

Projections using development trajectories from the SHLAA:

2011 Round - standard fertility (latest) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round - high fertility *Updated 20/04/2012

2010 Round - updated 07/02/2011

2009 Round

Projections using development trajectories from the London Plan:

2009 Round (latest)

Custom age tool for borough projections

The 2011 round of borough-level population projections is scheduled for release in December 2011.

Additional projections are produced using each borough's own housing trajectory and provided to the local authority directly.  For more information, contact demography@london.gov.uk

Ward-level population projections by 5yr age groups:

Note that ward projections do not include City of London. Data for City can be found in the borough projections.

Projections using development trajectories from the SHLAA:

2011 Round (latest) *revised 20/04/12

2011 Round high fertility variant *revised 20/04/12

2010 Round

2009 Round

Projections using development trajectories from the London Plan:

2009 Round (latest)

Custom age tool for ward projections

Additional projections are produced using each borough's own housing trajectory and provided to the local authority directly.  For more information, contact demography@london.gov.uk

Household projections:

Projections using development trajectories from the SHLAA:

2011 Round - standard fertility (latest) *updated 20/04/12

2011 Round - high fertility *updated 20/04/12

2010 Round

Borough-level ethnic group projections:

Projections using development trajectories from the SHLAA:

2011 Round - standard fertility

2011 Round - high fertility

2010 Round (latest)

2009 Round

Projections using development trajectories from the London Plan:

2009 Round (latest)

Projected economically active population by borough:

Projections using development trajectories from the SHLAA:

2011 Round - scheduled for release February 2012

2010 Round (latest) - updated 07/02/2011

2009 Round

Projections using development trajectories from the London Plan:

2009 Round (latest)

The 2011 round of economically active population projections is scheduled for release in December 2011.