GLA Demographic Projections

This page acts as a hub for navigating the GLA's range of published demographic projections.  Links to datasets and release dates will be added as they become available.

The Demography team within the GLA maintains a number of sets of demographic projections.  These sets cover different geographies, development assumptions, and output groupings.  Most sets are updated annually, incorporating the latest data as it becomes available. 

Future releases:

2012 round household projections (SHLAA and trend-based) are to be published in June 2013.

2012 Round Projections:

2012 Round Ethnic Group Projections (SHLAA)

2012 Round Ethnic Group Projections (trend-based)

2012 Round Ward 5 year age bands - standard projection (SHLAA)

2012 Round Ward 5 year age bands - variant projection (SHLAA/trend)

2012 Round Borough Single Year of Age (SHLAA)

2012 Round Borough Single Year of Age (trend-based)

2012 Round Borough SYA (zero development)

Update 07-2013 details the methodology and results of the 2012 ethnic group population projections

Update 05-2013 details the methodology and data used for the 2012 round SHLAA and trend-based projections

Technical note to accompany the 2012 round SHLAA and trend-based projections

2011 Round Projections:

2011 Round borough SYA - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round borough SYA - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round ward 5 year age bands - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round ward 5 year age bands - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round household - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/2012

2011 Round household - high fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 20/04/12

2011 Round borough ethnic group - standard fertility (SHLAA) *Updated 12/06/2012

2011 Round borough ethnic group - high fertility (SHLAA)

Technical note to accompany the 2011 round borough population projections.

2010 Round Projections:

2010 Round borough SYA (SHLAA)*Updated 07/02/2011

2010 Round ward 5 year age bands (SHLAA)

2010 Round household (SHLAA)

2010 Round borough ethnic group (SHLAA)

2010 Round borough economically active population (SHLAA) *Updated 07/02/2011

Update relating to the 2010 round of SHLAA based projections

Update summarising the GLA 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections using the SHLAA

2009 Round Projections:

2009 Round borough SYA (SHLAA)

2009 Round borough SYA (London Plan development trajectory)

2009 Round ward 5 year age bands

2009 Round ward 5 year age bands (London Plan development trajectory)

2009 Round borough ethnic group (SHLAA)

2009 Round borough ethnic group (London Plan development trajectory)

2009 Round borough economically active population (SHLAA)

2009 Round borough economically active population (London Plan development trajectory)

Update relating to the 2009 round of London Plan projections

Custom tools:

Custom age tool for borough projections

Custom age tool for ward projections

Notes:

The GLA produces several projection variants using different housing trajectory assumptions.  Published here are projections that use either the London Plan housing targets or development trajectories based on the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA) - see here for more information.  Updated SHLAA-based projections are produced annually.

Ward projections do not include City of London. Data for City can be found in the borough projections.

Additional projections are produced using each borough's own housing trajectory and provided to the local authority directly.

For more information, contact demography@london.gov.uk